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20/20 Hindsight (Would've, could've, Should've)
Who Would've Known: Bobby Rainey might be the running back to get off the waiver wire? You know I liked Rainey since he was setting records at Western Kentucky. If you didn't, here's another reason why you should be reading the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I considered Rainey an underrated prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft:
Rainey might not even get drafted, but he displays several good characteristics you want to see from an NFL-caliber running back. At 5'7", 208 lbs., the Hilltoppers' starter is similar to Maurice Jones-Drew in dimensions - short, but not small - and he has excellent lateral agility, bursts well from his cuts, and he's a versatile football player. Rainey is a good return specialist and he catches the football with his hands and he makes plays as a receiver beyond the usual five-yard range of the flats or underneath linebackers.
There are a few knocks on Rainey as a runner. One came from the Shrine Game where it was reported during practice that Rainey bounces too many runs outside. He may have done this there, but there are two games I've seen that say otherwise. One particular effort is a 40-plus-carry performance against Troy where he cuts a lot of plays back to the inside or the middle of the field.
Another concern is that Rainey has "little tread left" because he's led college football in rushing attempts for the past two years. Here's the list of attempt leaders in college football since 2000. All of the backs from 2000-2009 earned a shot int he NFL and 50 percent of these runners earned at least 975 yards at least once in their careers - 40 percent of these players made the Pro Bowl multiple times.
Season Player Att School 2011 Bobby Rainey 369 Western Kentucky 2010 Bobby Rainey 340 Western Kentucky 2009 Toby Gerhart 343 Stanford 2008 Javon Ringer 390 Michigan State 2007 Kevin Smith 450 Central Florida 2006 Ray Rice 335 Rutgers 2005 Brian Calhoun 348 Wisconsin 2004 Adrian Peterson 339 Oklahoma 2003 Steven Jackson 350 Oregon State 2002 Cecil Sapp 347 Colorado State 2001 Larry Ned 311 San Diego State 2000 LaDainian Tomlinson 369 Texas Christian
Ray Rice isn't exactly a big back and he's been healthy enough to be a force for the Ravens for the past three years as its starter. Until Adrian Peterson suffered an ACL tear, he was considered the best running back in the game, taking that mantle from the highly durable LaDainian Tomlinson. Steven Jackson has suffered minor injuries throughout his career and he's missed periods of seasons, but has still manged a good, if not great career.
Granted, Rainey has led college football in carries for consecutive years. Should this be a concern? Not any more of a concern than it should have been for Rice, Michael Turner, Deangelo Williams, Cedric Benson, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. those are the five runners that had more career carries than Rainey in college football.
Here are my play-by-play notes and grading checklist that I used to evaluate Rainey. With the way the Buccaneeers are run blocking, Rainey and Brian Leonard are good options. Leonard runs with excellent power while Rainey offers the benefits of big plays once he's in space. Both are fine receivers.
Lesson Learned: The running back position has the greatest concentration of talent in the NFL. Most fantasy owners could care less to know about a player who has bounced around three teams in less than a season, but they'll change their tune when that player earns and opportunity and delivers production. It's valuable to learn something about players when they enter the league and remain open-minded that these players can produce if they earn an opportunity and find a good team fit for their skills.
Fantasy Prognosis? Value Rainey as a potential flex-play with RB2 upside if he solidifies more playing time with another good performance this weekend. Brian Leonard has had shoulder problems in the past. If this issue rears its ugly head, Rainey could offer some Dominic Rhodes upside for the stretch run behind an offensive line that made Mike James look like Mike Anderson with the Broncos. It's an up-and-down fantasy schedule for the Buccaneers, so would not value Rainey as anything more than a low-end flex-play until he demonstrates more against a quality opponent.
If you own Rainey now and he has an RB2 or RB1-caliber game against the Falcons, I'd sell high if you're not in dire need of a runner and picked him up as depth. If he earns 100 total yards or 50 yards and a score versus Atlanta, you might get low-end starter at wide receiver from a desperate owner in need of a back. Or, you could trade Rainey for that handcuff you might earn carries during the fantasy playoffs.
If Rainey earns a majority of the carries, displays a flair for the extraordinary, and appears fresh in the fourth quarter, it might be tempting to hold the runner, but the fantasy playoffs includes match ups with Carolina, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Unless you need a player to give you carries at the running back position, I'd trade him no later than the Atlanta game.
Who Could've Known: Case Keenum could perform this well as an undrafted rookie from 2012? I studied Keenum two weeks ago when he faced an overconfident Chiefs defense that thought the former Houston star would fold by sheer pre-snap intimidation. Although ESPN blogger Tania Ganguli did a nice job profiling the data from Keenum's performance against the Cardinals, I came away more optimistic about the Texans' new starting quarterback than I initially felt after the Kansas City game.
The reason isn't the production, but the nature of the opposition.
The Cardinals supplied more interior pressure than the Chiefs and stuck Patrick Peterson on Andre Johnson for much of the game and Keenum demonstrated more poise, mature decision-making, and appropriate aggressiveness than I expected. Here's an example of a play in the fourth quarter, where Keenum hangs in the pocket and delivers an accurate throw with a high degree of difficulty in the fourth quarter.
Keenum and the Texans are in their own end zone on this 1st-and-10 sideline fade intended for Andre Johnson (at the lower right). Arizona plays one safety deep, something that Keenum and the Texans didn't see as often as he did versus the Colts and Chiefs, which is a good indicated for Keenum that he has single coverage on Johnson.
Although that single coverage is Patrick Peterson, I like that Keenum doesn't shy away from his best receiver in this situation. This is another good sign that he's a confident, aggressive player.
Keenum takes is drop, and looks to the opposite side of the field, giving Johnson time to release and to hold the safety in the middle of the field as long as possible.
Keenum turns to Johnson, sets his feet, and begins his release, as interior pressure is just steps away from delivering a hit.
Not known as a player with a strong arm, Keenum delivers a pass about 40 yards through the air with a defender in his face. As most veteran NFL quarterbacks say year after year, 40 yards is generally all the range a quarterback needs in the vertical game. There are exceptions and those exceptional players can give a team an advantage, but not as much as fans think.
Look where the ball lands. This is pinpoint accuracy with a star cornerback glued to the receiver and a safety coming over top while getting hit by a 300-pound-plus defensive tackle. Johnson doesn't make the catch, but the ball is where it needs to be.
Fourth quarter, interior pressure, up by three, and in the back end of your own end zone, what more can one ask of Keenum on this play? This throw beats every attempt I saw from the previous two games despite the fact the outcome was a negative. You can find the rest of my breakdown of Keenum vs. the Cardinals at the RSP blog.
Lesson Learned: One of the great concerns for scouts is whether a player can mentally process and execute the NFL game. There's a pro scout who I speak with frequently who told me recently that his team isn't sold on Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota because they haven't seen evidence of him making NFL-caliber plays in an offense that has him throwing to wind-open receivers. They don't know if he can process and execute the mental game despite his tremendous physical gifts.
Now imagine the skepticism the NFL must have had for Keenum, a player known as a system quarterback from a mid-major program that runs an offense that wasn't considered an NFL-caliber system? Combine that with Keenum being short and lacking a howitzer for an arm and it's understandable why the Houston Cougars quarterback went undrafted.
When a team coached by a former quarterback likes an underafted passer enough to keep him and elevate him on its depth chart at a position, it's worth paying attention.
Fantasy Prognosis: With Oakland, Jacksonville twice, New England, and Indianapolis on the schedule, I'd hold Keenum as a quality reserve or desperation starter in larger leagues. The fact that Keenum is willing to go deep with Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins and target top corners in the process is a telling indication that Houston's new quarterback can deliver quality numbers for fantasy owners.
If you're a low-scoring team with 1 great player who is carrying you (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Jamaal Charles) and you're still in playoff contention, it would be wise to consider adding Keenum, trading the stud and earning enough quality players to reshape your team. It's unlikely Manning will have better games than he's had thus far and if you're still losing, it's better to go down with 2-4 players you get in exchange who are capable of having strong weeks that earn you twice as much as Manning's best week.
If you trade your top passer and acquire a player like Keenum whom defenses will prefer to let him throw than let Houston run, you just might improve your team.
You Should've Known: This week, maybe it's better to say "You should know" that Riley Cooper isn't lucky, he's good: For the past six weeks, Riley Cooper has been the No.3 receiver in fantasy football - just five points behind Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green. That's right, Cooper has been that good, but there are still fantasy owners who believe Cooper is this year's Drew Bennett to Nick Foles' Billy Volek.
They might be right, but do you really care if Cooper and Foles are one-year wonders if it helps you win? I didn't think so. However, it's the refrain I'm hearing from some fantasy owners who are saying Cooper is another "Eddie Royal," implying that it's fluke production that is unsustainable this year.
First of all, you need a reality check if you think any fantasy receiver or runner will sustain a fantasy pace of 20-30 points a week. During Cooper's six-week run among the elite fantasy options at receiver, he's had three weeks below 10 points, including a week with 1.3. and a one-target, zero-catch game in Week 5. Johnson has missed a week and earned a goose egg and only had 2.5 points for another. During the first five weeks of the the season, A.J. Green had three games with no more than 4-6 fantasy points.
Johnson and Green have built up equity of trust among the fantasy community. They earned it with tangible production that fans not only saw on the box score, but also on the field.
Riley Cooper is not the next elite receiver. However,when given the opportunity and paired with a decent quarterback he's capable of matching Eric Decker or Rueben Randle's production and role as a starter. In fact, thought Cooper was a more complete prospect at the position than his teammate Jeremy Maclin.
However, Cooper is the type of receiver who fits best with a precision passer pocket passer and if it wasn't for Maclin's injury, I doubt Cooper would have seen the field as a starter in this offense. But pair Cooper with the likes of Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler, or Philip Rivers, and he'd be a good starter.
Here are three plays that demonstrate Cooper's skill as a route runner versus man and zone coverage as well as his ability to adjust to the football. The first is a play where Cooper drops the ball, but runs a quality route.
Cooper begins the play with an inside release on a route that he wants to break inside. The former Florida Gator will set up that break with subtle move to the outside that helps him earn separation. See below.
Cooper drives of the line with good intensity - pads over knees, hips bent, and arms pumping to force the defender to turn and run rather than back-pedal.
Based on the corner's position over top, Cooper has done a good job selling the vertical route. At this point, the receiver begins to turn outside, which will actually set up his break inside.
Cooper raises his shoulders and hips as if he's preparing for a turn to the outside.This crosses up the corner and leaves the defender in the flat as the receiver breaks across the middle.
Note the distance between Cooper and the cornerback as the ball arrives. Coop extends his arms and gets both hands on the ball, but he's unable to secure the target.
If Cooper makes this catch, he has a shot to split the safety and trailing linebacker in stride for a huge gain up the middle. It's the type of route running you'll see on multiple plays in this game - route skills that I believe are better than Maclin's.
Here's a play where Cooper makes a fine adjustment to work with Nick Foles after the initial break doesn't come open. This is a crossing route that he breaks back to the outside.
Cooper executes a good release from the line of scrimmage to begin the route, using his outside arm to swat past the defensive back's hands, while driving off the line to the inside.
Note the dip of the shoulder in the photo below. Cooper is accelerating through the path of the defender and the initial use of his hands helps the receiver frame some distance between himself and the opponent.
Cooper continues to keep the pads low as he turns inside the defender and this gives him just enough separation to make a play on a tight throw if necessary, but Foles doesn't like what he sees and holds onto the ball.
Cooper then does two things in the next two stills that are helpful to his quarterback. The first is that he turns back to the passer and works up field to present his chest as a target in case Foles opts to deliver the ball now.
When it becomes clear in this short span of time that Foles doesn't like what he sees, Cooper doesn't remain static.
Cooper turns outside as Foles slides to his right. The pair demonstrate a rapport as Foles delivers the ball to the spot where he wants Cooper to break.
Cooper makes the catch in stride and gains another 17 yards as a ball carrier up the hash.
This is a case where Foles' maneuverability in the pocket trumps Michael Vick's raw mobility. Vick will often back away from pressure or turn his back to the secondary to avoid pressure. This type of adjustment may help free the quarterback, but it's added movement that forces the receivers to wait before they know how to adjust. A pocket passer with economy of movement also makes his receiver's adjustments more efficient as you see here.
The last play is a touchdown. Watching the play as it unfolded from the perspective of the broadcast, Cooper appeared to get open due to a busted coverage. The safety is too far inside and the corner is still shallow.
Did the corner and the safety experience a gap in communication? Nope. The credit goes to Cooper's route,which begins at the line of scrimmage with the corner but ends putting the moves on safety Morgan Burnett.
Cooper releases from the slot outside the defensive back. At this point it's apparent that Cooper will encounter contact from the defender, which at 6'4", 222 lbs., plays right into the receiver's wheelhouse.
Cooper uses his inside arm to work through the corner's shove, lifting his arm skyward after the contact to divert the force of the blow and remain on-time and on path.
Based on the defensive back's position in this frame, its' clear Cooper has the size and strength advantage in addition to a display of good technique. The defender is off balance as Cooper works down field.
As Cooper runs past the shallow defender, Burnett arrives over top. Cooper sets up this corner route with a move towards the post. Note how well Cooper sells the route: a full turn inside, shoulders forward as if he's about to accelerate through the break, and his head turned towards the quarterback as if he's focused on the arrival of the ball. It's enough for Burnett to bite on this as the post, but it's a post-corner route and Cooper makes the safety pay dearly for believing otherwise.
Burnett accelerates inside just as Cooper plants his inside leg and begins his turn to the corner.
Burnett appears to recover, planting his feet and turning his hips outside. However, Cooper is already accelerating through this break and Burnett is still in no position to accelerate with the receiver.
Cooper drives hard to the corner and bends the route at a tight angle that's closer to 90 degrees than 45 degrees, which earns more horizontal and vertical separation from the safety. Meanwhile, Burnett stumbles trying to accelerate after such a quick change of direction from a stance where he had committed fully in the opposite direction.
Now it's just a matter of Foles delivering an accurate ball and Cooper catching the pass without opposition. Look back at the first slide in this segment and you see why it's easy to assume this was a busted coverage when in fact it was a terrific route.
Lesson Learned: Cooper has the size, speed, hands, and route skills to start in the NFL. He flashed this ability in spurts early in his career. This fall has been an extended tryout for Cooper, an unrestricted free agent in 2014, and so far he's excelling.
If you added Cooper before his fantasy production increased, selling Cooper at WR2 value might be attainable in dynasty leagues.
If I were to consider the teams that could use a player of Cooper's skill set, I'd put Detroit, Cleveland, Washington, San Francisco, and Baltimore near the top of the list. It's also possible Cooper remains in Philadelphia due to his off-field bout of foot-in-the-mouth disease, the way the Eagles handled it, and the potential for a mea culpa discount, especially if Maclin doesn't return to form after suffering an ACL tear.
Re-draft owners would be wise to hold onto Cooper with a schedule that includes Minnesota, Washington, Arizona, and Detroit. Unless there's a need for a running back and Cooper is depth-turned-starter on your roster, you're likely to earn strong WR2 production from Cooper the rest of the way. DeSean Jackson is a fine player, but Cooper has the physical dimensions to work the entire field, which makes Cooper a more predictable option in PPR leagues.
What about Nick Foles?
I like Foles for the season, but I wouldn't overpay for him. Despite excellent stats (15-0 TD/INT and over 9 yards per attempt), he has played the Giants twice, the Buccaneers, the Raiders (nearly half of his scores in this game alone), and Washington's defense - not an inspiring group. Foles is more efficient in the pocket than Vick and better at making pre-snap adjustments against blitzes.
These two items alone make him a quarterback with a solid floor of a QB2 in dynasty leagues and a hot hand I'd considering riding for most of the stretch run - just find a quality option for Week 13 versus the Cardinals because when it comes to interior pressure Foles is still making youthful mistakes. He's been getting away with them for now, but how long the football universe will give Foles a mulligan is hard to guess.
Two examples came from last week's Packers' game. The first is a deep post to DeSean Jackson that should have been an interception, but the result is a tipped ball for a touchdown.
Jackson is at the bottom of the photo. Foles executes a play fake and then takes his drop looking to the receiver at the top of the photo.
Foles initially has strong protection, which is needed because the three receivers are running intermediate and vertical routes. Only the tight end is running to a shallow zone.
The pocket begins to deteriorate as Foles continues to stare down his outside receiver. There's a line between patience and indecision and I think Foles has crossed it here about a second ago. With receivers running deep routes, the longer he waits, the farther he has to throw the football to reach the receiver, and the more likely he generates a jump ball situation.
Foles finally turns, but now the pocket has almost disintegrated and he'll have to make this throw to Jackson under duress. It will also have to be a deeper throw, which will give the safety time to recover and make a play on the football. Quick decision making generates easier opportunities in the vertical game unless you're Ben Roethlisberger, who can create backyard pitch and catch scenarios seem workable in the NFL.
Foles delivers the ball with a nice, high release point, but look at how little bend there is to the front leg. I wonder if he's able to drive the ball as deep as he's capable with this leg so straight. Foles' deep range is somewhere between 46-52 yards, which is pretty good. However, his accuracy is pinpoint more often when these throws only need to cover 40-45 yards. This throw covers about 50 yards of air space and arrives short of target.
Fortunately for the Eagles, Morgan Burnett makes an effort to tip the ball with good intentions despite the fact that his teammate has a perfect angle to make the interception. The tip forces the ball away from the cornerback and the trajectory of the ball is now a lollipop for Jackson to run under for the touchdown.
Eagles fans love it; Packers fans cringe. As a DeSean Jackson owner, I was thrilled. As a person who wants to see Nick Foles succeed, the Eagles quarterback has to demonstrate more anticipation or his deep ball will become more Kerry Collins-like.
Another deep ball to Jackson in this game illustrates Foles' willingness to hang in the pocket (the good) but he allows that patience to cross the line to recklessness.
Jackson is at the top of the formation. The Packers send four and drop seven.
Foles looks to the left, which is a nice job of disguising his intentions of hitting Jackson on the opposite side.
He turns to the middle of the field and delivers a hard pump fake. It's a nice skill for a quarterback to have and it sets up a double move from Jackson.
While the pump fake helped Jackson, it didn't freeze the pass rush. Now Foles has to reset and deliver a deep pass with interior pressure looming.
At this point, Foles has no business throwing this ball. There's no room to step into a pass of 40-50 yards.
Foles ignores his better judgment and releases the ball like a kid at a sandlot playing "Gator". The pass sails like a punt and well short of target.
These two plays are by no means damning of Foles' future, but there's a certain lack of poise with these two examples that I also saw frequently at the University of Arizona. I'm not sure he can change this mentality at this point in his career. It might not hold him back as a fantasy starter, but I'm not confident Foles will continue to produce at the pace he's on right now. Enjoy the ride, but don't be surprised if it gets bumpier as the quality of competition gets better.
Eddie Lacy Sans Rodgers
Unless Matt Flynn returns to the Packers and plays like he did against the Patriots a few years ago while Aaron Rodgers is out, it's a fair assumption that Eddie Lacy's production will be limited. However, I don't expect Lacy's attempts to drop significantly. It might be harder sledding, but I think Lacy is up for the challenge.
Here's the type of play that separates good backs from mediocre ones in the NFL. It's not impressive in the box score, but folks waiting for numbers to tell them something without the context of what happens on the field are relying on more luck than they realize.
The two Eagles defenders over right guard will penetrate into the backfield before Lacy even receives the ball. This should be a loss of five yards, but Lacy turns this play into a positive gain, breaking three tackles in the process.
Lacy is a yard and a half from the exchange point and both defenders over right guard are in the backfield unblocked.
These two defenders have perfect angles on Lacy, who, still taking the exchange, has no chance to lower his pads and generate momentum into contact. to break the tackle of a defensive tackle and a linebacker will take raw strength and agility with very little technique.
Lacy leans into the contact with his front leg and lets the back leg to dead so he can make the defensive tackle miss his wrap.
This is a terrific display of balance and strength to avoid the 300-pound defender and then extricate his front leg from the linebacker. Note the safety coming up the right hash through a wide open gap. This will be Lacy's next obstacle.
Bad tackling? Perhaps. Strong and agile runner? Definitely.
Lacy also shows the awareness to explode through the wrap with a hop so he can get some momentum towards the safety. He knows his is his only chance to explode downhill. The rest of this play is like a power lift. The distance covered isn't great, but the weight he carries there is impressive.
Lacy and his teammates push the pile for a gain of two, but the athleticism, awareness, and determination are all present on this play. Jackson's production was far more promising in this first half than the second, but with Flynn returning to the fold I'd hold onto Lacy with the Giants, Vikings, Falcons, Lions, and Cowboys on the horizon.
This type of effort and display of impressive feats from Lacy has grown in frequency in recent weeks. Expect no worse than flex production from Lacy for the next few weeks until Rodgers returns because the carries will be there.
