The Gut Check No.275 - 2013 Offensive PPR Tiers

Photo: Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports

Introduction

If you want the Emily Post rankings for fantasy football this is the last sentence you should read of this article.

For those of you who are here to see my takes, understand that I'm not striving for perfecton now, but championships later. Although I have earned pretty good 2012 and Multi-Year Accuracy Scores for my rankings in recent years (because after forgetting to do so in 2010, I made sure to keep up with my rankings until the the date that Fantasy Pros uses to take our rankings and perform its analysis). 

My accuracy was especially good for WR and QB (good news for Upside Down drafters), but a good score at Fantasy Pros is not my primary goal. Otherwise, I'd just mimic the great work of David Dodds and Bob Henry and have a nice shot of placing within the overall top 10 in any given year.

Bob and David aren't Emily post, but Average Draft Position data is. When you go with the data, you're playing it safe get to use that information to say something that sounds powerful within convention. On an everyday level, it's a good thing. When building a foundation to a team through the draft, it's an excellent approach.

However, I have to stay true to what I observe and research. This means there are a lot of players I value much different than the crowd. The longer I do this, the more I'm arriving at the belief that what you do different from the crowd is what gives you a true chance at success in competitive endeavors - especially when competing with guys who are the data in the Draft Dominator.

It means you're about to enter my warped fantasy mind. These tiers of my Top-100 PPR players provide a map to this maddening place - a forest in the dead of night where you'll see Bilal Powell on the same line as Matt Ryan in a tier and consider turning back. It's ok, just keep progressing as directed and you'll be safe.

I say this to first-time visitors to my house. There is a road in my town called Barnett Shoals. It has two 90-degree turns and could be mistaken for three different streets - especially when the directions include these steps:

"Take a right onto Barnett Shoals for two miles and when you reach the intersection with the shopping center take a right onto Barnett Shoals for another 1.5 miles, pass the fire station, and take a left at the next light onto . . . Barnett Shoals."   

Like getting to my house, the path may seem crazy, but it will all make sense soon enough.  

Tiers Key

Every player has his VBD score based on my projections in parenthesis next to his name. This is information captured at the time of writing this piece. For the most up-to-date material, refer to my rankings. I'm basing ADP on My Fantasy League's ADP for 12-team PPR leagues with real drafts after August 15. 

Pay special attention to the font for each player's name. For my colorblind readers, I have incorporated italicization, bold, parenthesis, and underline as an additional note for your consideration: 

Red Italicized Font - Overrated: The player's ADP is at least 12 picks higher than where I am ranking him.

Blue Bold Font - Underrated: The player's ADP is at least 12 picks lower than where I am ranking him

(Black Bold in Parenthesis) - 1.5 PPR TE: This is where I would rank a tight end in 1.5 PPR Premium Leagues. Ignore rankings of players in parenthesis if RB/WR/TE all earn 1 point per reception.   

Green Bold Underlined Font - Significant Value: I have this player rated at least 20 picks higher than his ADP.  

Purple Bold Italicized Underlined Font  - Significantly Overrated: I believe this player's ADP is at least 20 picks higher than I'd take him. 

+/- (X) - My estimation of the maximum number of picks you should move (+ is for overrated) up or wait (- for underrated) to acquire specific overvalued or undervalued players based on their tier placements. This is also for players I've placed at least +/- 6 picks from their ADP.

I recommend you don't pick the overrated players at their ADP - I'm just showing you where how much I think they are overvalued so you can make a decision where you're comfortable pulling the trigger. On the other hand, I would consider using the underrated figure as a gauge to adjust your draft plan so you get the player at a value you're comfortable with based on your draft spot.

PPR Tiers - Tier 1 (First 12-17 picks)

These are players I'd draft in the first round of a league of 10-16 teams. If there's a 1.5-point, PPR premium awarded to tight ends then Jimmy Graham earns a spot equivalent to an elite receiver. Due to the points drop-off at tight end compared to receiver, I'd opt for Graham before a top receiver. Forte has a low-end Tier 1 ADP, but I have him in the upper range of the tier. If you're in a 12-team league and picking sixth, I think you have a good shot of getting Forte as your second-round pick.

I'd also consider Jason Witten as my second tight end in a Premium PPR League. You won't have to pick Witten this early. In fact, you probably can wait until the end of Tier 2 or even the early part of Tier 3. The reason is that most fantasy owners believe Witten is slowing down. Physically, he is but, not enough to detract from his skill as one of the best option route runners at the position in the league. Think of Witten's career decline along the lines of Tony Gonzalez's - at least this year. 

If you're relying on my rankings to draft players rather than consulting them to adjust specific players, Forte is firmly entrenched as my RB4. At the same time, I realize the risk factor appears higher with him at this spot compared to Spiller or McCoy.

This might pose a difficult choice if you have a top-five pick, but if you have the sixth pick or later, there's a decent chance of getting Forte as your second-round pick. I love what I saw from Bears right guard Kyle Long and new teammate Jermon Bushrod, so my confidence level in Forte is stronger than it has been in recent years. I also haven't ranked Forte this high in years.

Fitzgerald is this year's Brandon Marshall, but with a wiser quarterback. I have less than average confidence in the Cardinals ground game. Guard Johnathan Cooper is an excellent rookie who will help - just not enough this year. Therefore, I think the Cardinals will throw the ball a ton and it's already easy to see based on the routes the offense used versus Dallas that they are going to ride Fitzgerald this year.

Expect an excess of 100 receptions with more touchdowns than the Arians-coached offense realized for Reggie Wayne. In other words, I'd let folks take Calvin Johnson early knowing I can get Fitzgerald at least halfway through the second round.

If you're taking an Upside Down Approach taking one of Bryant, Marshall, or Johnson and following up with Fitzgerald looks like a good start. Also keep an eye on Eddie Lacy, who may crack the first tier if the Packers say he's their feature back. I doubt they'll say it, but I think we'll see it. You can probably still get him at the 3/4 turn, but if you know his stock is rising in your league I'd risk going a little earlier. More on Lacy below.

Tier 2 (Picks 16-28)

On the other end of the spectrum, continue to monitor Arian Foster despite increased reps in practice after dealing with back pain and a calf injury that kept him on the shelf since late spring. A healthy Ben Tate provides the Texans a luxury to rest Foster as long as needed. Likewise, Tate is gaining value. 

Lacy's decent imitation of Marion Motley with a spin move against St. Louis will increase his value. I'm far more confident that Lacy will be the feature back in Green Bay and after giving him a larger percentage of the carries in my projections, he's jumped in my rankings.

If you can take Lacy with an early pick in the fourth round, he fits as a high-risk RB1 for your Upside Down Draft; a dynamic RB2 for a two-RB starting lineup; and an unbelievable RB3 for a flex-lineup if you can swing it before his stock skyrockets in the final weeks of the preseason. I think I hear mission control counting down. I think a third-round pick isn't too much at this point.

There are two players I see as significant values in this draft that have me still tempted to consider an Upside Down Strategy this year. One of them is Vereen, who I think will see enough use as a hybrid weapon in the Patriots offense that he'll approach Darren Sproles' production. It's important to explain this in more detail, because as you read this last sentence your mind probably processed the word "Vereen" and the word "Sproles" and at least 1.5 percent of you will walk away with misguided notion that I said Vereen is like Sproles in the same way that a small percentage of you think I say that Ryan Mathews is as talented as Adrian Peterson because I compared one aspect of their running styles. 

Sproles and Vereen are different backs. I think Sproles is a more talented open field runner and Vereen is better between the tackles, although neither is ideally suited for Eddie Lacy's type of work. Sproles is a very good receiver, but Vereen's skill is at a higher level. Both have two of the greatest quarterbacks this game has ever seen, but it's Vereen in just two years of work who has shown he's capable of making plays on red zone targets in tight coverage reserved for receivers. This route profiled at my blog is one I've seen the Patriots use multiple times in the past two seasons to target Vereen. If Sproles were as talented at this aspect of receiving, the Saints certainly have the quarterback capable of targeting him as such. 

These two backs are different types of talents used in different roles as receivers, but one thing is the same: both present strong PPR value. Vereen's ADP is nearly four rounds lower than where I see his value. If you agree with me (and NFL Films' producer Greg Cosell) that Vereen will play the Aaron Hernandez hybrid role in the Patriots offense then you'll understand why he's ranked higher here.

Again, for you folks seeing two names in the same sentence and thinking I mean they're the same, look a little deeper. Vereen's role in the offense will replace Hernandez's production, but the running back/wide receiver will earn the touches in ways a little different than the former H-Back: wide receiver screens, crossing routes, bullet routes, wheel routes, and fades to supplement carries. 

Sproles is the safer play, but I think Vereen's value by year's end won't be much different. Dr. Fantasy-Good's prescription: Take one now and another two rounds later and you'll have a potent pair of hybrids.

A.J. Green is a fine player in an offense trending upward, but I think he's a little overvalued this year. I think he'll remain a top-10 receiver, but if Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and Giovani Bernard stay healthy, I think these players may take some of the luster off Green's production. He's still one of the safest plays in fantasy football so if you pick him at the end of the first round, I'm not arresting you for crimes against fantasy. 

Graham might be a bit overvalued based on the ADP, but I don't think any resource I'd use would differentiate between PPR and PPR TE Premium leagues. If you can use two tight ends or your league starts a maximum of two backs and three receivers, Graham is a great option in the opening 15 picks. 

If you opted to wait on a tight end in Premium PPR scoring for tight ends, Gonzalez makes his appearance in this tier in this circumstance. A super safe pick for those who don't want to play the Gronkowski game. 

I think Miller is another excellent value even if his ADP doesn't always fit as well within the Upside Down Strategy. If you're looking for a high-upside RB2, I like Miller despite the fact - as the astute Jason Wood mentioned on the August 15th episode of the The Audible that the Dolphins' refusal to name Miller the starter depresses his ADP. It could happen, but I'd be shocked if Daniel Thomas wins the job and reduces Miller to a supporting role. The talented second-year runner is one of those runners that gives you between 12-20 spots of "play" with your draft strategy to get a quality player at the position and acquire another talent you might of skipped otherwise..

TIER 3 (PICKS 29-43)

This tier has an odd collection of characters. I have Roddy White, Cam Newton, Darren McFadden, and Jason Witten ranked at their ADP value and that's about the only normal thing about this tier. Second-year back Lamar Miller is a player you might be able to get a round later, but I wouldn't count on it.I'm not sure his promise is going to translate to full-time looks and might be downgrading him after this gets posted.

Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and Julio Jones are leaving boards between 12-18 picks earlier than I'd take them. After the eighth round, this range is not as big of a deal, but we're talking the opening rounds where ADP tends to be much tighter in its range of high/low picks.

If any of these three players fall to you at picks 33-38, take them if you like them - especially Brees and Jones, who two of the safest picks in any draft. Jones has more boom-bust weekly production, but he's a great WR2 if your league has a collective brain-fart and the Falcons receiver slips this far.  

Bush is earning hype from my colleagues as the player most likely to reprise a Marshall Faulk role. I'd love to see it happen, but Bush isn't the interior runner Faulk was and I believe the Lions will use Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure enough to keep a ceiling on Bush's touches. If you're thinking Bush averages 20 touches per game then he'll be a value as an RB1. I think it will a surprise if he earns more than 15 touches. Don't count last week's preseason game when Calvin Johnson was out and Matthew Stafford had to find a substitute binky.

Bush is a solid RB2, but I think the upside as a RB1 is dependent on injuries striking the Lions depth chart. David Wilson is another player who belongs in this overvalued or undervalued discussion. I think Andre Brown is a heck of a runner. He has excellent balance and good burst for a big man. It's a case where I think many folks see Brown's talent and Wilson's foibles as a pass protector and shy away from Wilson.

What makes this Giants situation the most intriguing to watch - and probably best from afar - is that Wilson is an incredible talent with the ball in his hand. If Wilson gets better in pass protection, you're looking at C.J. Spiller's burst and open-field prowess with Ray Rice-like balance/second-effort. It's a seductive pick because I love his upside, but I'm not sure I even have the guts to take him earlier than the fourth round. He's the most tempting and dangerous pick for me this year.  

Antonio Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw represent strong value. I'm buying the notion that Brown will not only be the No.1 receiver in Pittsburgh, but a borderline WR1 in fantasy football. Considering I can get him before the end of the 5th round in many leagues, he's that WR2 or WR3 I can have up my sleeve who I'm projecting to outperform his ADP.

Bradshaw's injury history makes him more dangerous, but I think this might be a misnomer among fantasy writers and fans. There's another way of looking at Bradshaw who didn't get signed early in the free agency process for the past two years and the Giants parting ways with him only for the Colts to let their new runner sit out much of the preseason.

Bradshaw's age and injury history keep him from being a long-term investment at a position where new blood is coveted. The injury history isn't bad when considering him for one year, but Bradshaw wanted longer-term options that no team wanted to give him. It makes the Colts a perfect fit this year.

The Colts are one of the few teams that lack a runner with every-down skill and big-play upside on its roster. I think long-term Kerwynn Williams might have a shot at developing into a Bradshaw-like back with even more speed, but it's not happening this year. Still, the fact that they traded Delone Carter is telling they like Williams enough to unload one of its backs. Vick Ballard is still a solid complement with versatility and fantasy value if forced into a lineup - think Joique Bell, but not as rugged. 

Indianapolis knows it needs to rest Bradshaw and the veteran doesn't need a lot of reps to step into the starting role and shine. You can get Bradshaw in the 6th round, but I think he'll produce as a 4th-round value. If your league has a flex spot and you're afraid you might miss the boat on an RB3, Bradshaw is one of those players waiting on. He's also a worthwhile Upside Down candidate. 

Now if you just want to take the player most likely to be available within this tier and represents the safest level of production, ignore all the fancy notations and fonts I'm using, step to the podium, and take Peyton Manning. He may lack the upside of Brees or Newton, but if I had to bet on one player exceeding 5000 yards and 35 touchdowns, I'd put my money on the Broncos quarterback.

Here's where I'd take Gronowski in a premium scoring PPR league, which is much lower than my buddy Bloom, who has his lighter skyward and swaying to the music. I get it, but I'd prefer to see if I can get him as a third-round pick in 12-team leagues before I'm shouting "Freebird!"

Jared Cook might be nearly as attractive an option, albeit an unproven one. I'm buying this year because I think there's merit when a teammate who has played with Cook on two different teams (Cortland Finnegan) basically says Cook didnt look like squat in Tennessee, but is "night and day" better in St. Louis. 

TIER 4 (44-55)

This tier is a good indication why we've been saying all summer that receiver is deep. I loved Randall Cobb as a prospects - rating him second only to A.J. Green and Julio Jones in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio - but I don't see the value in taking him as high as he's leaving the draft pool this year. I know Aaron Rodgers says Cobb could earn 100 receptions in this offense and with Jordy Nelson possibly missing Week 1 it adds fuel to the fire. 

It's just not enough petro in the tank for me to make that trip. This team wants to run more and if Eddie Lacy averages 4.5 yards per carry, I think the passing game will be a minor disappointment with the exception of Jermichael Finley. More on that later.

Cobb might be on the receiving end of some big plays, but the efficiency of those play action passes should also lower the volume of targets coming his way unless Green Bay moves to an up-tempo offense and we've seen no evidence of this development. The Green Bay receivers will still be quality plays, but I wouldn't take them as high as they're going.

Vincent Jackson is another player whose talent is fantastic, but I'm not sure Cecil Shorts is or T.Y. Hilton aren't equally good options. They are available much later in drafts. Jackson isn't guaranteed a high reception count and while he is a terrific deep threat, I think Shorts in an uptempo Jaguars offense (second in snaps thus far in the preseason) could benefit both from target volume and big plays. 

The safest bets in this tier are Reggie Wayne and Eric Decker. They should both earn a high volume of targets due to their role and the offense in which they star. This is probably why if I'm drafting runners early, there's an assortment of players to choose from and reaching a bit for Antonio Brown to land Wayne, Decker, or Shorts has its appeal. 

All of the running backs I have in this tier can be taken later with the exception of Ryan Mathews. He and DeAngelo Williams have the greatest talent, but you know the drill with both. I prefer Williams this year, but even my preference is lukewarm. 

There's nothing lukewarm about how I feel about Russell Wilson this year. I think folks are still catching up to the idea of how good Wilson is and will be. His decision making and poise is off the chain for player this young. Even when he makes mistakes or has a bad game, the poor play doesn't linger. 

I get the love for Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick. But Wilson is right there with them. Some folks will probably describe him possessing an assassin's mentality. Forget the assassin, Wilson has the mentality of a kingpin. He's Michael Corleone in pads. Depending whom I'm drafting with (Bloom and other fellow Wilsonites), I'm perfectly comfortable taking him in the 5th-6th round to land his services. 

For those of you looking for mid-round premium PPR tight ends, the run begins here on my board. I'm buying Finley, Olsen, Cameron, (Vernon) Davis, and Gates if I want to insure I want a competitive producer at my TE1 spot.

I've never been a huge Finley fan, but I think he's bought into his role and isn't trying to big-time the Packers anymore. He's in good shape and making plays in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers' mantra has always been "I target the players who get open" and Finley is getting open. With Lacy pounding the ball, the play action game will get Finley wide open. 

I think Cameron has shown enough rapport this preseason to be bullish. Olsen is still the No.2 receiving option on this Panthers squad. Davis is the best tight end in football who could be the best fantasy tight end in football if the 49ers ever decide to use him as such in the regular season, which makes him the best upside value here. I believe Gates will be decent enough for him to have a value season for fantasy owners. 

Tier 5 (56-70)

Let's start with quarterbacks. It's clear that the best values in the elite tier of quarterback are Peyton Manning, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. While I'm ok with folks reaching a bit for Brees, I think Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are players I'd rather wait to see if they drop below their ADP.

Although I have them marked as vastly overvalued, I do believe quarterback is the one position where you just pay the freight and ride with a quality player rather than try to get too cute with a committee. So I wouldn't sweat the details embedded within my tiers for quarterbacks.

If you know you're strong at predicting weekly match-ups or you are targeting players at other positions that are much better values than Rodgers or Brady, then you'll skip them. If you want a safe play, pick a good quarterback.

Fantasy football at a higher level is about flexibility and options based on how much you know. How you play the quarterback position in your draft is a good example. 

Personally, I'd still wait and take Stafford if I didn't take one of the elite values I mentioned at the beginning of this section. I know his mechanics get football analyst geeks' bow-ties spinning out of control and they start writing stuff that makes Stafford sound like a scary player. I'm still a fan even if the Poindexters have valid gripes about his technique.

It's the same mentality folks had when they railed on Brett Favre for 20 years for his issues. Even with his problems, Favre was an excellent fantasy starter. Stafford isn't Favre, but his style isn't far off. This might be the year he finally has worthwhile skill talent to make him a more efficient player. 

Pierre Thomas is fantasy football's white-bread toast with butter and jelly at the Waffle House. You might not eat it regularly, but when you slip into these little icebox diners near the local interstate exit and order the All-Star Breakfast, you'll indulge if you still have room.

Just make sure you take a close look at this Tier 5 Menu, because I'm thinking there are far too many specials at wide receiver and you'll spoil your meal if you eat the toast first. Wait to see if it's still on your buddy's plate after he's full.

This tier, like the past two is filled with quality receivers capable of strong WR2 production with a solid, WR3-like floor. In fact, this tier is less like a Waffle House food list and more like a menu at a Chinese restaurant. The difference is you get to pick three from the same column at different points of the meal. As your waiter, I recommend you pick one of Hilton, Jackson, or Smith now and both Gordon and Brown later. 

Perhaps I should care that Gordon is on thin ice in Cleveland, but just watch him on the field and you'll get it. He just might be the one of the five-best players on that team. He's easily the second-best skill player on the offense. He makes the game look as easy as Randy Moss did at points during his career. 

You can always go for Tony Gonzalez here. I have a difficult time telling you that he won't be an elite fantasy option in his final season. The old man does what he wants against guys nearly half his age.

As for Gronkowski in a normal PPR setting, he's getting the Bloom Effect right now, but all indications point to me bumping the Patriots tight end back to his normally high draft position because is probably right. The tea leaves in New England hint that he'll be ready by no later than late September. 

If you got stuck on the wrong side of a TE run in a Premium PPR league, I recommend rookie Zach Sudfeld. The UDFA should earn the starter role for the first three weeks. His play in camp has been excellent and I believe this early-season stint will serve as an audition for the Hernandez role in two-tight end sets. If he earns it, look for Sudfeld's value to remain as strong throughout the season. I think he has a shot at TE1 production. 

Tier 6 (71 - 87)

Wide receiver values abound. You can also see which two receivers I wouldn't be picking in most drafts: Nelson and Smith. Both are excellent players, but despite Jene Bramel's astute research on the nature of the injury, I'm concerned that the timing of the surgery will make this worse on Nelson's fantasy owners than the optimistic report. Smith needs help in Baltimore or he'll be a boom-bust option all year. The player I'd watch on the waiver wire around midseason is UDFA Marlon Brown, who I've written about here.

The best four receivers to consider here are Tate, Moore, Sanders, or Williams. I don't see how they don't provide strong WR3 - if not strong WR3 value - in PPR leagues. But the player I'd be most likely to target is Bolden or tight end Jared Cook. You can probably get Boldin/Cook and either Tate/Sanders with this pick and the next. If you don't get them, there's still enough WR talent in the next tier or wait even longer. 

Continue to follow my advice on quarterback despite the fact my tiers have Matt Ryan as an overvalued player. He's in a great passing offense and should give you safe QB1 production.

I could be wrong about my take this summer that Steven Jackson will keep the unit more balanced because thus far the offensive line hasn't been a great blocking unit in the preseason. If the run game stalls, Ryan could be a borderline elite QB1 by necessity. This weekend's dress rehearsal might be helpful.

The best value at the position will be Tony Romo and I like him this year even with a greater emphasis on the running game this summer. I also think Dez Bryant is poised for an incredible year.

By no means am I recommending to take Bilal Powell here, but the fact that I'm projecting Powell to earn RB3 production is an indictment of Chris Ivory and the Jets offense. Ivory is fast becoming that talented player that got every fantasy owner intoxicated with his potential in May and June, but with an August hangover. Ivory's difficulties staying healthy enough to even practice isn't even the biggest issue. 

The Jets quarterbacks have difficulty sustaining drives. The offensive line is blocking better, but Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith are holding onto the ball too long, making poor decisions, and lacking the accuracy you expect. The collective play of these quarterbacks is detracting from the line's improvement. And despite the fact that we like to make this game about numbers so we non-football players feel like we understand it better, running the football is often about momentum and rhythm. 

The Jets ground game lacked these qualities the past two years and I think the quarterbacks' difficulties converting plays to keep drives alive will disrupt the potential for consistent rhythm and momentum this year. It means that the most productive running back on the team may be Powell. He's the third-down back, he stays healthy, and he's also the back on plays where the team snaps it directly to the runner.

Powell is the type of player you can get after Round 15, but might give you outrageous value as a strong bye-week or flex-play. Think I'm nuts? Joique Bell or Vick Ballard? Anyone . . . Bueller . . . Bueller? I thought so.

Speaking of Bell, he's the Lance Moore of running backs right now. He'll be a flex-play producer when you look at the point totals at season's end. As for Dwyer, I recommend you pick him inside the top 120 players. His ADP will rise to that level baring the Steelers importing a veteran free agent. 

Tier 7 (87-113)

Alright I lied, I'm giving you 113 players. 

If you're seeking a quarterback, it's doubtful Luck and Griffin will be available here. Dalton is a risky QB1, but a nice pick as a QB2. I think Palmer fits the same description.

Sigmund Bloom likes to use the phrase "new reality" to talk about the difference between preseason perceptions and in-season perceptions. It's an instructive phrase to approach the new season with an open mind and base moves off the current events rather than continuing to root your strategies in preseason thinking. 

This is a smart refrain, but there are people who take that "new reality" too literally. They're enthusiasm ebbs and flows with each passing week of games, including the preseason. If you watched Carson Palmer against the Cowboys in the second preseason game, you saw him have a series where he threw the ball to the wrong location on two consecutive snaps. You also saw Michael Floyd get alligator arms on a post in the end zone. 

If you get too hung up on "new reality" thinking, Carson Palmer has "lost it" and Michael Floyd is never going to "get it". This might be true. It also might be true that Palmer and the receivers are still working out presnap communications and hot reads and Palmer was on the wrong page or vice versa.

As for Floyd, I've seen enough of him at Notre Dame to know he isn't afraid of winning contested footballs. I also know that the priority of coaches in the preseason is to exit these games with healthy players. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled back here. 

I'll take Palmer (and Floyd at a reduced price due to my confidence in Andre Roberts) this year as my QB2 - especially in a committee - with the belief he can produce enough QB1 starts for my team to succeed. 

The one running back I like at this spot is Brown. But if you look at the values I have at the position in this tier, he's likely the only back of this group who will be available so it's not much of a statement. Brown is every bit as valauble as Giovani Bernard and Chris Ivory, because ultimately I think they will all split time in their offenses.

The difference is Bernard and Ivory are viewed like David Wilson whereas Green-Ellis and Powell are seen like Brown. Considering the split-hot-hand-unproven nature of the committees, these players are dangerous picks in the early-to-mid rounds. 

Wide receiver continues to be a huge value in terms of potential, but I think the best values in this tier are the tight ends. As the season draws near, I'm beginning to question the notion that taking a stud tight end early is really the best notion.

Is it possible the long-awaited Move-Tight End Era will finally arrive on a statistical level in full effect that we thought would come 3-4 years ago but never did? Can players like Finley, Davis, and Cameron close the gap? Can Dwayne Allen Surprise for the Colts? It's one of the quieter preseason developments this year.

Hopefully your team won't go quietly into the night in 2013.