GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
This Spotlight was written by guest writer Brad Duffendack. Brad can be followed on Twitter @Duff_Football. His work can also be found at faketeams.com and dynastyfootballwarehouse.com.
RETURN OF THE MAC
On just the second day into the Philadelphia Eagles 2013 training camp, Jeremy Maclin collapsed to the ground without contact and knew immediately that his season was over. An ACL tear was all too familiar to him since it was the same injury he suffered before his freshman season at Missouri in 2006. If anyone has any questions about Maclin's ability to recover from this most recent ailment, they can look back to his return to the Tigers for his sophomore season after his first knee injury. He was only able to muster up enough speed and explosiveness to accumulate a total of 2,776 all-purpose yards (the 5th most in NCAA history at the time) and 16 touchdowns. He continued on to have a very successful college career and became a first round pick for the Eagles in 2009.
Maclin had another health scare in 2011 when he was struck with a "mystery illness" during the offseason. He was forced to go through a complete battery of medical tests that all produced negative results but no definitive diagnosis for what was causing the symptoms. The sickness took a toll on his body causing him to lose 15 pounds. There was plenty of doubt at the time that he would be able to play that season or even return to football at all. After some time, the symptoms began to subside and Maclin was in the lineup to start for the Eagles in Week 1. Even with sitting out three games later in the season, he was able to regain enough of his strength and ability to total 859 receiving yards - only 105 yards less than his career year in the previous season.
Other than this health scare, last year's ACL tear is the only major injury Maclin has suffered throughout his entire NFL career. Before this, he has only missed a total of five games. With this minimal injury history and plenty of evidence to be a fast healer, any "injury-prone" labels should be immediately eliminated from consideration for drafting Maclin in fantasy leagues. He has already been medically cleared before OTAs, and I can't doubt his ability to return to form after he has shown it multiple times in the past.
The Eagles obviously believe that he will be ready for the season after placing a major focus on re-signing him before the free agency period began and then eventually releasing their former #1 star receiver, Desean Jackson. The Eagles reportedly wanted to lock Maclin up to a five-year deal, but he decided that it would be best to sign a 1-year deal and put trust in his abilities that he will be able to earn a much better deal after this season. There have been reports that there has already been discussions about a mid-season extension that will occur once Maclin proves himself worthy. It is clear that the Eagles have a plan for him in this offense and intend to have him in the fold for the future.
Here is a look at what Jeremy Maclin has been able to accomplish in each season since being drafted by the Eagles.
YEAR |
GAMES |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
TARG |
RUSH |
YDS |
TD |
FMBL |
2013 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2012 |
15 |
69 |
857 |
7 |
122 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2011 |
13 |
63 |
859 |
5 |
96 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2010 |
16 |
70 |
964 |
10 |
115 |
3 |
36 |
0 |
1 |
2009 |
15 |
55 |
762 |
4 |
90 |
2 |
-7 |
0 |
0 |
In his five-year NFL career, Maclin has been unable to surpass 70 catches or reach the 1,000 yard milestone but is presented with a great opportunity this season to post career high numbers as the most talented receiver in a high-powered offense. Maclin enters into training camp as the most likely to be the #1 receiver for this team. With good hands, precision route-running, and the ability to create after the catch, he is a clear fit for this Chip Kelly offense that relies heavily on precision and timing.
HYPERACTIVE HYPERDRIVE
Chip Kelly - now entering his 2nd year as head coach - will continue to place a clear emphasis on the offense to run plays at the highest possible rate in an attempt to tire and confuse the defense. After posting an incredible rate of around 75 plays per game in the offseason last year, the Eagles were only able to sustain an average of 65.4 plays per game during the season, ranking them only slightly above the league average. However, the offense was still very efficient ranking 2nd in total offense (417.3 yds per game) and 4th in points per game (27.6) while still being a predominantly run-heavy team.
It was instead the Eagle's porous defense that was the catalyst to prevent the offense from reaching its full potential. The young and inexperienced defensive line allowed the opposing offenses to slow the game down by continually running the ball and controlling the game clock. This resulted in the Eagles finishing dead last in the league in average time of possession per game (26:19) by over a full minute. The defense looks to improve this year in a second season under defensive coordinator, Billy Davis, by placing a major focus on stopping the run.
If they are successful in doing so, the offense will coincidentally see more time on the field and should improve on the numbers from 2013. They would see a rise in average time of possession and begin to climb toward the top of the league in plays per game. If the Eagles were able to improve their 65 plays per game average to come closer to that 75 mark set during the preseason, this should help to boost the fantasy potential for every player in the offense, even moreso for the #1 receiver, Maclin, as the most likely to see the greatest percentage of increase in targets from these extra plays over the other receivers.
Everyone has already seen a glimpse of what this offense is capable of during the first week of 2013 against the Redskins. Even with Michael Vick under center, the offense was completely in sync while running at a break-neck pace. If they can reach that same level at a more consistant basis this season, I would be ecstatic to grab their #1 receiving weapon where he is currently being drafted in the mid-rounds.
ENOUGH TO GO AROUND?
One of the major concerns for any Philly receiver will be the propensity for Chip Kelly to spread the ball around to multiple targets in his offense and if that will allow any them to be viable, weekly fantasy options. Let's take a look at some of those other receiving weapons that will be competing against Maclin for targets this season.
Riley Cooper was able to gain a good rapport with quarterback, Nick Foles, while replacing Maclin last year. If you were to remove the two monster games he had against the Raiders and Packers, he only totaled 39 catches for 594 yards in all other remaining games. However, he was a huge help to Foles, receiving many deep targets that, when thrown, had a much better chance of being intercepted but were completed due to many lucky deflections or poor defending. To minimize these ill-advised throws from Foles, I believe that Chip Kelly intends to reel him back in and target more of the short-to-intermediate routes and get the ball out of his hand much quicker this year.
Jordan Matthews is the rookie selected in the 2nd round of the draft that has understandably been gaining a lot of hype during OTAs because of his incredible work ethic. He has been putting in the work and outshining the veterans while they may not share the same desire to work as hard still months away from the season. We shall see if the hype for Matthews continues to build once padded practices begin in training camp and the intensity for everyone is at a much higher level.
Josh Huff is another rookie receiver added into the mix. Taken in the 3rd round of the draft, he has experience playing under Chip Kelly at Oregon but doesn't project to be heavily involved this year unless injuries occur.
The tight ends, Brent Celek and Zach Ertz, however, figure to command a significant amount of targets between the two of them, mostly as the red zone targets.
The Eagles also traded for Darren Sproles this offseason, who should be more involved in the receiving game than the rushing attack. However, there should not be too many instances that Chip Kelly will want to take LeSean McCoy - possibly the best all-around running back in the league - off the field to substitute Sproles in. He will more likely be used as a gadget player for specific plays to get the ball out in space.
The Eagles totaled 4,110 passing yards last season. Even with most of these weapons in the fold last year, they produced a WR1 for fantasy in Desean Jackson and a WR2 in Riley Cooper. With only 170 yards more on the season, the Chicago Bears offense had enough total fantasy production to offer 2 elite WR1s in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and still had enough left over to provide a low-TE1 in Martellus Bennett.
With the amount of volume that an improved Eagle's offense should accumulate this season, there should be more than enough fantasy points to go around to each of the top receiving targets. And Maclin should command the majority of these points due to his superior talent and the way he should be featured in the offense as the primary receiver.
POSITIVES
- Likely the #1 wide receiver in a high volume offense
- Highly motivated after signing a 1-year contract
- Plays 6 games against the rest of the NFC East which could have each team in the division as bottom-5 defenses in the league
- Eagles' secondary is still a weakness and should give way to the possibility of more shootouts
NEGATIVES
- Coming off of a major leg injury that could effect his quickness, overall speed, and cutting ability
- Will likely be matched up against the best cornerbacks from opposing defenses
- Was reportedly shopped around to other teams in trade discussions before the 2013 season
- Multiple talented receiving options that will take away potential targets
- Eagles will continue to have a very run-heavy offense
FINAL THOUGHTS
With two of the top three receivers from last year (Desean Jackson and Jason Avant) departing, that leaves a total of 120 receptions, 1,779 yards, and 11 touchdowns up for grabs for this season. Maclin should claim the majority of this available production as the primary target and see his best season yet in the NFL. Currently, his ADP sits as a low-WR3 that can be had in the 6th round. This is a great value as I have him projected in the solid WR2 range. I suspect that his ADP will begin to creep up, however, once he shows in the preseason games that he is fully healthy and will be the more safe and reliable target for Nick Foles than Riley Cooper.
PROJECTIONS
Brad's Projections:
YEAR |
|
G |
RSH |
YDS |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
FUMBL |
2014 |
PROJ-DUFF |
16 |
3 |
15 |
0 |
78 |
1000 |
6 |
1 |
Footballguys Projections:
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | PHI | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 96 | 63 | 859 | 5 | |
2012 | PHI | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 69 | 857 | 7 | |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 810 | 6 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 15 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 60 | 830 | 5 | 1 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 850 | 7 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 62 | 853 | 6 | 1 |