GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
This Spotlight was written by guest writer Anthony Amico. Anthony can be followed on Twitter @amicsta. His work can also be found at No Coast Bias and JAM Sportz.
LEARNIN' ABOUT VERNON -- THE YEAR THAT WAS
Vernon Davis had a terrific season last year after a down 2012 campaign. He started off strong with a 6-reception, 92-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Green Bay Packers and did not look back. The physical freak out of Maryland went on to catch 52 passes for 850 yards and a whopping 13 touchdowns. He finished second in standard scoring leagues, and third in PPR (points per reception) leagues.
After last season, Davis’ production matched with his world-class athleticism must make him a top fantasy pick again in 2014, right? WRONG.
HE LOVES ME, HE LOVES ME NOT
After receiving 61 targets (6.1/game) through the first ten games of 2013, Davis received only 23 targets (4.6/game) over his last five. Why did Davis, who had been a productive player in the 49ers offense all season, suddenly start to lose work? The answer is Michael Crabtree, who returned from a torn Achilles in Week 13 against the St. Louis Rams. This is not a coincidence. Since taking over for Alex Smith in Week 10 of the 2012 season, quarterback Colin Kaepernick has started 23 games. In those 23 starts, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree played together in 12 of them.
Here are Davis’ logs in those 12 games:
Year |
Week |
Tgts |
Recs |
Yds |
TDs |
2012 |
11 |
8 |
6 |
83 |
1 |
2012 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2012 |
13 |
3 |
2 |
15 |
0 |
2012 |
14 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
2012 |
15 |
3 |
1 |
10 |
0 |
2012 |
16 |
1 |
1 |
27 |
0 |
2012 |
17 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
2013 |
13 |
5 |
4 |
82 |
1 |
2013 |
14 |
3 |
2 |
21 |
1 |
2013 |
15 |
7 |
5 |
79 |
1 |
2013 |
16 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2013 |
17 |
5 |
3 |
45 |
1 |
Average |
- |
3.58 |
2.17 |
30.92 |
.42 |
By contrast, here are Davis’ game logs in games without Crabtree:
Year |
Week |
Tgts |
Recs |
Yds |
TDs |
2013 |
1 |
9 |
6 |
98 |
2 |
2013 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
20 |
0 |
2013 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
18 |
1 |
2013 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
88 |
1 |
2013 |
6 |
11 |
8 |
180 |
2 |
2013 |
7 |
8 |
4 |
62 |
0 |
2013 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
52 |
1 |
2013 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2013 |
11 |
5 |
4 |
33 |
1 |
2013 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
70 |
1 |
Average |
- |
6.10 |
3.80 |
62.30 |
.90 |
What a TREMENDOUS discrepancy in production! Davis doubles his yardage and touchdowns when Crabtree is out of the lineup. In terms of fantasy points, Davis is averaging 5.612 a game with Crabtree and 11.63 without him (standard scoring). That’s the difference in being TE25 and TE3 respectively last season in points per game!
Crabtree’s presence may not be the only reason for Davis’ falloff. It is possible that Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers simply do not view him as a focal point of the offensive game plan. Here are Davis’ numbers in three seasons playing under Harbaugh:
Year |
Tgts |
Recs |
Yds |
TDs |
2011 |
95 |
67 |
792 |
6 |
2012 |
61 |
51 |
548 |
5 |
2013 |
84 |
52 |
850 |
13 |
Average |
80.00 |
56.67 |
730.00 |
8 |
Even with last season factored in, Davis has averaged numbers that make him a low end TE1 in standard scoring (his three year average puts him at TE12 in PPG last season, TE7 in total points). In PPR, his low reception totals hurt him even more (TE15 in PPG, TE10 in total points). The 49ers’ lack of commitment to Davis is a concern going forward, especially with the addition of Stevie Johnson from Buffalo. Putting yet another talented receiver on the field may further diminish the number of looks the mercurial tight end receives in 2014.
DAVIS WANTS DOLLARS
Davis has been vocal about his desire for a new contract. Although he didn’t follow through on threats to hold out of training camp, it’s clear that the lack of a new deal could be a source of friction between Davis, his coaches and teammates.
A SILVER LINING?
While Davis’ role in the offense is certainly in doubt, it is possible that he could make up for some of his shortcomings if San Francisco throws more in 2014. Many are expecting San Francisco’s defense to take a step back in 2014 due to age (Justin Smith), injury (NaVorro Bowman), and suspension (Aldon Smith), which could force the conservative 49ers to throw more in order to win games. Improving from their league-low 417 passing attempts last season would go a long way towards balancing out Davis’ targets and production.
POSITIVES
- Even at 30 years old, Davis remains a height/weight/speed freak and presents a mismatch for defenses to figure out
- The 49ers could pass more this season due to a decline in defensive production
- Should Michael Crabtree go down again, Davis would be in line for another top-end year
NEGATIVES
- Davis has not fared well historically with Michael Crabtree on the field
- Davis may not be a large part of the 49ers’ offensive plans under Jim Harbaugh
- Holding out would open Davis up for even less of an offensive role and injury
- The addition of Stevie Johnson to the fold adds a mouth to feed in San Francisco
FINAL THOUGHTS
With a top-5 average draft position, Davis SCREAMS bust for the 2014 fantasy season. His ADP prices in just about all of his ceiling and none of his floor, and he has clearly been a different player with Michael Crabtree on the field. It is reasonable to say, based on the numbers, that Davis is not even startable when Crabtree plays. Combine that with a potential holdout and a more talented receiving corps, and Davis is a clear stay-away for 2014.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | REC | YD | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | SF | 16 | 67 | 792 | 6 |
2012 | SF | 16 | 41 | 548 | 5 |
2013 | SF | 15 | 52 | 850 | 13 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 51 | 663 | 7 |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 52 | 740 | 8 |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 50 | 675 | 7 |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 55 | 743 | 8 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Scott Smith of RotoViz thinks Davis is a sell for 2014:
Davis is a bit of an enigma. While he is the second most athletic TE I have ever measured due to his 4.38 40 and 42″ vertical, his production is maddening. You never know which Vernon Davis you are going to get from year to year. The main reason Davis is a sell here is because I think his 2013 pace is unsustainable. Davis caught touchdowns on 25% of his receptions…that is ridiculous. Three of his touchdowns also went for over 50 yards. Another concern is that there will be many more mouths to feed this year. The addition of Stevie Johnson working out of the slot along with a healthy Michael Crabtree will give Kaepernick other options at a minimum.
Adam Pfeifer of Rant Sports feels Davis is due for a regression:
Thanks to a 13-touchdown season, Vernon Davis finished as the number two tight end in fantasy. Nine of those 13 scores came in the red zone, as he made his presence felt up close with his size and athleticism. However, can he maintain that efficiency this year? He converted nine of his 21 red zone targets into touchdowns, a pretty impressive number. And, again, that was without Crabtree, who eats away at his production when on the field…
Davis will be drafted as a top-five fantasy tight end, but I’m not willing to select him in the fourth or fifth round. I feel that he is due for some regression, and while he’s an elite option, I’d rather stack up on receivers and running backs and grab a tight end with similar upside later on.
Ryan Hester in his player comments:
Vernon Davis was highly touchdown-dependent in 2013. Aside from that, he receives fewer targets when Michael Crabtree is on the field. Davis also has a potential holdout coming as he’s unhappy about his contract. This isn’t a good fantasy recipe. There are many better options at the position, even ones being drafted much later.