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We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 22 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week.
Staffer
|
PIT
|
GB
|
SEA
|
CLE
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
NO
|
DET
|
BAL
|
TEN
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
MNF
|
NE
|
CHI
|
STL
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
SF
|
TOTAL
|
|
Rudnicki
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
42
|
15
|
16
|
12
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
14
|
9
|
5
|
3
|
13
|
4
|
8
|
10
|
11
|
6
|
||
Miglio
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
SF
|
42
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
9
|
6
|
3
|
13
|
12
|
8
|
4
|
10
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
11
|
1
|
||
Garda
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
50
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
8
|
7
|
5
|
12
|
10
|
2
|
6
|
16
|
1
|
3
|
9
|
11
|
4
|
||
Hicks
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
42
|
16
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
||
Heiser
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
42
|
15
|
16
|
11
|
9
|
6
|
5
|
14
|
13
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
12
|
||
Feery
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
NO
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
41
|
13
|
12
|
8
|
9
|
3
|
11
|
16
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
14
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
15
|
7
|
||
Gray
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
45
|
12
|
16
|
15
|
8
|
1
|
2
|
10
|
14
|
6
|
3
|
13
|
7
|
11
|
9
|
4
|
5
|
||
Hindery
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
NO
|
DET
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
46
|
14
|
16
|
11
|
9
|
5
|
4
|
15
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
13
|
8
|
10
|
12
|
6
|
7
|
||
Tuccitt
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
CLE
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
DET
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
SF
|
49
|
16
|
15
|
12
|
2
|
10
|
6
|
11
|
8
|
7
|
4
|
13
|
3
|
1
|
14
|
9
|
5
|
||
Larkin
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
48
|
14
|
15
|
9
|
11
|
8
|
6
|
13
|
5
|
12
|
4
|
7
|
2
|
1
|
16
|
10
|
3
|
||
Brimacombe
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
DET
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
45
|
4
|
16
|
15
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
2
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
9
|
1
|
||
Wood
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
NO
|
DET
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
43
|
12
|
14
|
16
|
11
|
6
|
13
|
15
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
9
|
1
|
8
|
10
|
7
|
4
|
||
Haseley
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
40
|
13
|
15
|
14
|
12
|
10
|
1
|
11
|
4
|
7
|
3
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
16
|
9
|
6
|
||
Pasquino
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
DET
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
41
|
16
|
8
|
9
|
3
|
6
|
1
|
13
|
12
|
11
|
5
|
15
|
7
|
2
|
14
|
10
|
4
|
||
Lee
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
40
|
16
|
15
|
12
|
14
|
2
|
5
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
13
|
10
|
1
|
||
Howe
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
40
|
10
|
15
|
7
|
14
|
5
|
13
|
9
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
11
|
2
|
16
|
6
|
8
|
12
|
||
Wimer
|
PIT
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
DET
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
SF
|
35
|
11
|
15
|
12
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
13
|
14
|
7
|
6
|
16
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
||
Bitonti
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
55
|
16
|
14
|
13
|
11
|
9
|
2
|
12
|
10
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
15
|
8
|
1
|
||
Tremblay
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
BUF
|
NO
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
SF
|
40
|
6
|
15
|
16
|
2
|
9
|
10
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
7
|
12
|
1
|
13
|
14
|
8
|
11
|
||
Holloway
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
45
|
11
|
16
|
15
|
12
|
6
|
2
|
13
|
10
|
5
|
4
|
9
|
8
|
1
|
14
|
7
|
3
|
||
Buzzard
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
37
|
15
|
16
|
12
|
4
|
5
|
2
|
10
|
7
|
3
|
9
|
13
|
8
|
11
|
14
|
6
|
1
|
||
Grant
|
NE
|
GB
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
SF
|
42
|
13
|
16
|
14
|
10
|
9
|
3
|
12
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
15
|
4
|
8
|
11
|
2
|
1
|
||
Away
|
PIT
|
GB
|
SEA
|
CLE
|
CAR
|
KC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
NO
|
DET
|
BAL
|
TEN
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
MIN
|
|
Total Pts
|
11
|
325
|
274
|
2
|
104
|
75
|
253
|
171
|
13
|
21
|
0
|
6
|
128
|
10
|
175
|
78
|
|
Home
|
NE
|
CHI
|
STL
|
NYJ
|
JAX
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
SD
|
DEN
|
TB
|
OAK
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
SF
|
|
Total Pts
|
278
|
0
|
0
|
193
|
37
|
45
|
4
|
13
|
110
|
79
|
241
|
99
|
9
|
219
|
0
|
19
|
HEAVY FAVORITES
The first week of the season is always hard to predict, but there were several teams that the staff strongly expect to win. Green Bay, Seattle, Denver and Philadelphia were all picked to win by all 22 staff members. Although the Packers have an average weight of 14.77 confidence points and the Eagles have just 7.95. The Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Bengals, and Cowboys are also heavy favorites this week.
DUAL SUPPORT
Most of the games this week have a clear favorite with the staff this week, but some of them are closer than others. The Chiefs are expected to beat the Texans at home, but several people on staff picked Houston to pull off the win at home. With 97 total points, the Monday night game between Minnesota and San Francisco is the least confident game of the week with the Vikings being a decent favorite to win. The Chargers and Panthers are both favorites from the staff, but the Lions and Jaguars also have plenty of backers.
ODDS AND ENDS
Make sure to check out the Survivor and Pick'em ATS staff contests as well. The Survivor format is based on picking one winner each week but you can't use the same team twice in a season. The ATS league takes into account the vegas spread when picking winners. Between these three articles, we should have every office pool covered.
Maximum points for this week is 136. As we get ino bye weeks, that number will drop.
IMPORTANT NOTE: These artciles come out on Thursday morning so that you can have them in time for the Thursday night game. However, that means that the staff must make their picks by Wednesday night, meaning any news that comes out later in the week will not be factored into these contests. If your league allows you to make changes right up until game time, make sure to keep an eye on the news reports and make your adjustments accordingly.
STAFF COMMENTS
Each week, we invite the FBG staff to provide comments on any of their picks. Here are this week's comments:
Mark Wimer
I struggled with the New Orleans/Arizona picks this week - I can see arguments for that game going either way - straight up or even against the spread.
I suggest most people fade this game in their confidence pools as it looks really even up/coin flip to me
Will Grant
The first week is always hard because you don't really know what team is going to show up. I went against the grain on Monday Night with the late game in San Francisco. This is going to be a low scoring game and I think the the Niners will be able to pull it out being at home.
Clayton Gray
Here are the games, I'm completely positive about:
Yeah - that's right. Predicting the Week 1 confidence pool with...well...confidence is not possible. People think they know what's going on, but until we see these teams on the field in a game that counts, it's more guesswork than knowwork.
Good luck this weekend!