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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 15

Weekly Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread)

By Will Grant
December 12, 2013
Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 15
Photo: Eric Hartline, USA Today Sports
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This season, we are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 17 staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

WEEK 14 RESULTS

Home teams ruled the week as all but two of the hosting teams came out with a victory. If you backed the home teams like Ryan Hester and Jason Wood, you did pretty well this week. Both Hester and Wood only missed one game: The Pittsburgh loss to Miami at home. Hester risked only four points though compared to Wood’s 9 and so Hester came away with the narrow victory.   

Staffer HOU OAK MIN DET MIA ATL IND KC BUF CLE TEN NYG STL SEA CAR DAL TOT
JAC NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN WAS TB NE DEN SD ARI SF NO CHI Pts
Hester JAC NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF NO CHI 132
  2 1 14 10 4 8 3 9 7 15 16 5 12 13 11 6  
Wood JAC NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF NO CHI 127
  8 2 14 7 9 12 11 13 6 15 16 5 10 4 3 1  
Pasquino JAC OAK BAL DET PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF NO CHI 124
  7 1 8 2 9 3 13 12 4 16 15 10 11 5 14 6  
Holloway JAC OAK BAL PHI MIA GB CIN KC TB NE DEN NYG ARI SF NO DAL 121
  6 5 14 7 1 9 11 13 10 15 16 2 12 3 4 8  
Harstad JAC OAK BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SEA NO CHI 120
  10 5 13 4 9 14 11 8 3 15 16 7 12 2 6 1  
Rudnicki HOU OAK BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF CAR DAL 118
  7 1 14 6 8 9 12 13 4 15 16 5 11 3 10 2  
Brimacombe HOU NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB IND KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF CAR CHI 118
  1 9 13 4 5 7 10 6 8 16 15 11 12 14 2 3  
Cummings HOU NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF NO CHI 117
  11 10 14 9 8 13 7 12 6 16 15 5 4 1 3 2  
Hicks JAC NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SEA CAR DAL 117
  10 8 1 11 2 12 13 14 9 15 16 3 5 4 6 7  
Tremblay HOU NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SEA NO DAL 116
  2 1 14 5 11 8 9 13 6 15 16 7 12 3 10 4  
Bitonti JAC NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC BUF NE DEN SD ARI SF CAR DAL 112
  1 6 14 8 12 5 7 13 9 15 16 10 11 2 3 4  
Grant JAC OAK BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC BUF NE DEN SD ARI SF CAR DAL 107
  2 1 14 7 12 9 6 11 5 15 16 10 13 4 3 8  
Garda HOU OAK BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD ARI SF CAR DAL 106
  6 10 12 11 5 13 4 14 7 15 16 2 9 3 1 8  
Haseley HOU OAK BAL PHI PIT ATL CIN KC BUF NE DEN SD ARI SEA NO CHI 101
  6 10 14 8 7 2 5 11 1 15 16 12 13 9 4 3  
Wimer JAC NYJ BAL DET PIT GB CIN KC BUF NE DEN SD ARI SEA CAR DAL 96
  1 2 13 8 7 11 10 14 6 15 16 5 9 4 3 12  
Larkin HOU OAK BAL PHI PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN NYG STL SEA CAR CHI 94
  10 7 14 9 11 8 5 13 12 16 15 3 4 6 1 2  
Russell HOU OAK BAL DET PIT GB CIN KC TB NE DEN SD STL SEA NO DAL 90
  1 8 13 4 11 9 6 14 5 15 16 10 3 7 2 12  
Away HOU OAK MIN DET MIA ATL IND KC BUF CLE TEN NYG STL SEA CAR DAL  
Total Pts 44 48 0 14 1 2 10 203 21 0 0 5 7 35 29 65  
Home JAC NYJ BAL PHI PIT GB CIN WAS TB NE DEN SD ARI SF NO CHI  
Total Pts 47 39 213 106 130 150 133 0 87 259 268 107 156 52 57 24  

90 total points would have been the top score in five other weeks this season. However, this late in the game, it’s good enough for dead last. Russell took a big gamble on the Cowboys on Monday night and lost when Chicago scored on every possession. He also took a hard loss in the Pittsburgh game this week, although that impacted almost everyone in the field. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Hester climbed back into the top overall spot this week, beating the next five contenders by at least eight points. Hicks fell into second place, just 11 points out. Holloway and Rudnicki had impressive weeks, but they are starting to fall behind now, with both about 30 points out of the top spot with just three weeks to go.

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Hester 95 115 87 72 69 95 78 87 56 71 95 47 113 132       1212
Hicks 113 85 86 100 72 82 82 83 46 68 85 79 103 117       1201
Holloway 103 111 84 81 64 97 81 85 55 52 93 48 109 121       1184
Rudnicki 101 111 78 88 66 100 82 85 49 50 92 59 102 118       1181
Pasquino 94 112 98 80 78 82 81 82 64 49 88 49 97 124       1178
Cummings 100 101 77 83 62 107 76 82 57 59 75 55 119 117       1170
Harstad 85 117 66 84 76 106 86 88 59 41 92 54 93 120       1167
Tremblay 92 106 71 97 62 96 80 82 55 49 93 52 108 116       1159
Haseley 100 117 96 77 63 82 63 84 60 53 95 55 107 101       1153
Larkin 102 121 84 71 63 94 85 83 47 55 92 67 90 94       1148
Grant 107 105 68 87 63 97 86 79 60 60 81 49 84 107       1133
Bitonti 112 97 79 87 66 71 76 85 54 55 86 52 99 112       1131
Brimacombe 109 103 53 91 68 100 85 75 67 57 86 40 77 118       1129
Wood 117 110 89 68 57 93 61 63 49 43 49 58 130 127       1114
Garda 81 105 86 64 67 94 82 75 52 68 77 48 87 106       1092
Russell 100 102 75 76 62 98 67 83 51 56 68 37 109 90       1074
Wimer 90 90 57 72 91 102 66 79 52 42 89 31 97 96       1054

Wimer edged a little closer to Russell this week, but still remained in the bottom slot. Garda gave himself a little breathing room but fell a little farther behind the next spot as Wood had another solid week. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer SD PHI NE CHI HOU WAS BUF SF SEA KC NYJ GB NO ARI CIN BAL MNF
DEN MIN MIA CLE IND ATL JAC TB NYG OAK CAR DAL STL TEN PIT DET TOTAL
Rudnicki DEN PHI MIA CHI IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 44
  16 10 9 8 7 6 5 15 14 12 13 2 11 3 1 4  
Harstad DEN PHI NE CHI IND WAS JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 52
  16 7 5 4 13 2 1 8 12 9 15 10 11 3 6 14  
Garda DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR GB NO ARI CIN DET 65
  16 15 14 13 8 2 7 12 9 10 6 3 11 4 1 5  
Hicks DEN PHI MIA CHI IND ATL BUF SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN BAL 49
  16 1 9 2 14 3 4 13 10 8 15 11 12 7 6 5  
Larkin DEN PHI MIA CLE IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI PIT DET 51
  16 13 1 3 12 15 5 14 11 10 6 9 8 7 4 2  
Russell DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL BUF SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 46
  16 15 9 10 14 2 5 12 11 8 13 6 7 3 4 1  
Cummings DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL BUF SF SEA KC CAR GB NO TEN PIT DET 41
  16 11 8 7 12 6 3 15 10 9 14 4 13 2 1 5  
Brimacombe DEN PHI MIA CHI IND WAS JAC SF SEA KC CAR GB NO TEN PIT DET 49
  15 16 5 7 10 1 2 8 9 12 14 6 13 4 3 11  
Wood DEN PHI NE CHI IND WAS BUF SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO TEN PIT BAL 41
  16 14 9 12 10 6 5 13 15 11 7 4 8 3 2 1  
Haseley DEN PHI MIA CLE IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO TEN PIT DET 51
  16 12 6 10 7 3 8 14 13 5 15 2 11 4 1 9  
Pasquino DEN PHI MIA C IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR GB NO ARI CIN BAL 51
  16 9 2 7 10 6 5 13 14 12 15 3 11 8 4 1  
Wimer DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL BUF SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 52
  16 10 15 9 14 8 7 13 12 6 11 5 4 3 2 1  
Bitonti DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL JAC SF NYG KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 56
  15 14 4 9 16 13 8 11 2 10 3 1 12 7 6 5  
Tremblay DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO TEN PIT DET 46
  14 9 1 5 15 8 6 10 11 12 16 4 13 2 3 7  
Hester DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL BUF SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI PIT DET 47
  16 10 7 4 13 8 2 5 12 9 15 6 14 3 1 11  
Holloway DEN PHI NE CHI IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 51
  15 12 8 6 13 5 4 9 10 11 16 3 14 2 1 7  
Grant DEN PHI NE CLE IND ATL JAC SF SEA KC CAR DAL NO ARI CIN DET 49
  16 10 5 4 14 6 1 13 7 11 15 3 9 8 2 12  
Away SD PHI NE CHI HOU WAS BUF SF SEA KC NYJ GB NO ARI CIN BAL  
Total Pts 0 188 85 96 0 9 26 198 180 165 0 16 182 58 33 7  
Home DEN MIN MIA CLE IND ATL JAC TB NYG OAK CAR DAL STL TEN PIT DET  
Total Pts 267 0 32 17 202 91 52 0 2 0 209 66 0 15 15 94  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Home teams may have carried the day last week, but this week there are several road teams that drew heavy favor from the entire board. Philadelphia, New Orleans and San Francisco all have total confidence from the staffers this week despite being on the road. Seattle is another strong road favorite this week. Denver is the top team this week, drawing almost 270 points of confidence for tonight’s game. Indianapolis and Carolina also are strong favorites to win at home this week.

DUAL SUPPORT

Jacksonville is drawing more attention every week, but Buffalo still managed to receive 26 total points. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will square off in another bitter division rivalry with Cinci being the favorite, but not with a lot of confidence. With Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are still the favorite this week, but Miami still drew over 30 points of confidence as well. 

ODDS AND ENDS

Three weeks to go and the field continues to narrow each week. The top five teams are all within striking distance, but they need to make a move this week to have a chance. With six teams still be unanimous choices, it’s going to be a lot harder to make a big move this week.

Good Luck this Weekend!

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