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2016 Draft: Fantasy Stars Of Tomorrow Watchlist
On Thursday April 28th, we will be looking live at the Auditorium Theatre in Chicago, IL, putting to rest months of speculation on how things might shake out. In lieu of adding to the plethora of mock drafts that seem to spring up on a daily basis, let’s cut to the chase.
- Which members of 2016’s draft class should we keep on the radar as potential fantasy stars of tomorrow?
- Who wowed us at the combine and had scouts drooling at the postseason all-star games?
- Which prospects are carrying some extra baggage that’s led to a slew of red flags being thrown in their direction from every angle?
Let’s sort through the answers to these questions and see if we can pinpoint some of the potential fantasy stars of tomorrow, starting with the quarterback position.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff
Junior, California, 6-4, 215
Projected Round: 1
Combine Grade: 6.56, Good NFL Starter With Pro Bowl Potential
Comparable Player: Matt Ryan
2015 College Stats: 43 TDs, 13 INTs, 4,719 yards, 64.5% Completions, 8.9 YPA
With an NFL-caliber arm, good size and solid mobility, it’s pretty easy to see why Jared Goff is one of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. He exited the combine with solid marks and rave reviews for his tight spiral and quality release, but will need to put in the time to improve his accuracy and decision making. He’ll be one of the top two quarterbacks off the board this April. At a minimum, we should be looking at a solid starter down the road. If the stars align and he lands in the right spot while he dedicates himself to his craft, the sky may be the limit.
Carson Wentz
Senior, North Dakota State, 6-5, 237
Projected Round: 1
Combine Grade: 6.56, Good NFL Starter With Pro Bowl Potential
Comparable Player: Blake Bortles
All-Star Game: Senior Bowl, Completed 6 of 10 for 50 yards
2015 College Stats: 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 1,651 yards, 62.5% Completions, 7.9 YPA, 294 Rushing Yards
When you combine prototypical size, a great work ethic and intelligence at the quarterback position, you’ll tend to pop-up on the radar of NFL scouts. Wentz received high marks at the combine for his ability to make all kinds of throws with exceptional accuracy. North Dakota State ran a pro-style offense, which bodes well for his transition to the NFL, but there are concerns that the lower level of competition at the FBS-level may lead to a bit of culture shock. Bottom line, Wentz has all the tools and the body type to succeed for the long-term. In the right situation that allows him ample time to get his feet underneath him, Wentz could have a very bright future as an NFL signal caller.
Paxton Lynch
Junior(r), Memphis, 6-7, 244
Projected Round: 1 or 2
Combine Grade: 6.17, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Marcus Mariota
2015 College Stats: 28 TDs, 4 INTs, 3,776 yards, 66.8% Completions, 8.5 YPA, 239 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing TDs
Paxton Lynch has the size and athletic ability that will typically send scouts into a frenzy, but the recent wave of flameout dual threat quarterbacks may give teams some pause. At the combine, Lynch was noted for having a quick release, elite-level foot quickness for his size, and an ability to find his way out of trouble. His accuracy tends to suffer when he’s driven out of the pocket, and he would be well served by adding a little zip to his throws. He has the physical tools to jump in and start from day one, but he’ll take his lumps if thrust into a starting role too soon, and may be better served in an apprentice-type role for his first NFL campaign.
Connor Cook
Senior(r), Michigan State, 6-4, 217
Projected Round: 1 or 2
Combine Grade: 5.85, Could Become Early NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Brian Hoyer
2015 College Stats: 24 TDs, 7 INTs, 3,131 yards, 56.1% Completions, 7.7 YPA
Before the 2015 regular season, Connor Cook was regarded as one of the top quarterback prospects for this year’s draft. Not much has changed in that regard, but flags have been flying his way with concerns over his arm strength and leadership ability. He did receive praise at the combine for his efficiency, anticipation, and ability to read defenses, but was notably marked down for his accuracy and field demeanor. By running a pro-style attack and coming from a big-game environment at Michigan State, Cook has a lot of promise at the pro level, but he’ll need to show some improvement or risk being branded with the usually unshakeable label of game manager.
Other QB’s To Keep In Mind
- Christian Hackenburg, Penn State. Hackenburg’s performance has continued to decline since his stellar freshman season back in 2013, but was that a result of poor play from the Penn State offensive line or the sign of larger problems at hand? Additional flags were raised at the combine, but he received a decent grade overall. His size and athleticism will lead a team to roll the dice in round two or three.
- Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State. Brissett has an NFL-caliber arm and the tools to succeed at the next level, but he received some negative reviews at the combine for bad habits that he’ll need to shake to put it all together. He currently projects as a late round selection, but a patient franchise that allows him time to develop while helping to accelerate his improvement may be pleasantly surprised with the end results.
- Dak Presott, Mississippi State. Prescott followed up a strong college career with a solid performance at both the Senior Bowl and combine, but an ill-timed DUI arrest has some tapping the brakes on what had been a rising stock. He’ll need some work to develop into a starter, but if he can put the mistake behind him as a hiccup of youth, Prescott has the intangibles to be an intriguing prospect.
- Cardale Jones, Ohio State. If Jones had struck while the iron was hot after a national title victory last season, he may have found a team willing to pay with an early round selection. He will now find himself somewhere in the middle rounds, which is probably a better representation of his abilities. He’s a developmental project with boom as the upside, which is offset by the very real risk of bust on the downside.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott
Junior, Ohio State, 6-2, 225
Projected Round: 1
Combine Grade: 7.20, Pro Bowl to All-Pro Ability
Comparable Player: Edgerrin James
2015 College Stats: Rush: 289/1,821/23, 6.3 YPA. Receiving: 27/206/0, 7.6 YPR.
The superlatives have been flying Elliott’s way ever since he declared for the draft, and his performance at the combine did little to quiet the noise and hype surrounding his future potential. He enters the draft as one of the finest looking running back prospects in recent years, with several mock drafts projecting him as a Top 10 pick, and some even suggesting that he’ll crack the Top 5. Regardless of where Elliott lands on draft day, he has the potential to jump right into the fray as a three-down back, and without any glaring weaknesses on his resume, his upside points to elite-level production. One thing he’ll need to work on to insure his longevity in the league is his fearless running style and willingness to take hits.
Derrick Henry
Junior, Alabama, 6-3, 247
Projected Round: 1 or 2
Combine Grade: 6.15, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Brandon Jacobs
2015 College Stats: Rush: 395/2,219/28, 5.6 YPA. Receiving: 11/91/0, 8.3 YPR.
For those that like running backs to be built like freight trains with the ability to run like one as well, the well-decorated Henry will certainly fit the bill. The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner will be the latest Alabama back to come off the board early in the draft, joining a mixed-bag of recent alums that includes T.J. Yeldon and Trent Richardson. His stellar 2015 season included new SEC records for rushing yards and touchdowns, plus an outstanding performance in the national title game to the tune of 36/167/3. Henry is a bell-cow back that seems to get stronger as the game moves along, but there are concerns that the heavy workload he received at Alabama has put a lot of tread on a young set of tires.
Jordan Howard
Junior, Indiana, 6-0, 230
Projected Round: 2 or 3
Combine Grade: 6.10, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Arian Foster
2015 College Stats: Rush: 196/1,213/9, 6.2 YPA. Receiving: 11/106/1, 9.6 YPR.
After two years of running roughshod over Conference USA defenses while at UAB, Howard took the leap to the Big Ten in 2015 and didn’t miss a beat. He earned first-team All-Conference honors and put forth stellar performances against Iowa and Michigan – two of the tougher defenses in the nation – by accumulating 174 yards and 238 yards respectively. Howard was not much of a factor in the passing game at either of his college stops, but that be more of a reflection of schemes as opposed to an indictment of his receiving skills. Howard has the size and the requisite set of tools to succeed at the next level, but there are some concerns about his durability due to both his running style and past injury history.
Other RB’s To Keep In Mind
- Devontae Booker, Utah. A torn meniscus brought an abrupt end to Booker’s senior campaign at Utah. Despite the injury, he remains one of the top running back prospects in this year’s draft. He possesses excellent vision and seems to get stronger the more often he is fed the ball, but does not possess elite-level speed. Booker has experience in a pro-style running game and could be a three-down back with a smooth transition to the NFL.
- Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech. Although Dixon may be lacking in the areas of speed and size, his decisiveness and competitiveness as a runner, plus a knack for gaining additional yards after first contact helps to offset any shortcomings. Dixon had an extremely productive college career at Louisiana Tech that sees him enter the 2016 draft as the second most prolific touchdown scorer in FBS history, and he projects to be one of the first five running backs off the board.
- Alex Collins, Arkansas. Collins surpassed 1,000 yards rushing for three consecutive seasons while at Arkansas, becoming only the third player in SEC history to accomplish that feat. He brings a strong build, a determined running style, and a knack for finding the end zone to the table. On the downside, Collins seems to only have one speed and has some work to do to get up to speed in the area of pass protection.
- Paul Perkins, UCLA. The tape on Perkins features plenty of highlight reel-worthy runs that show off his elusiveness and ability to create. He’s relatively slight by NFL standards, checking in at 5-10, 208 lbs. at the combine. While Perkins may not have the size to last and make a mark as a three-down back at the next level, he should have little trouble finding a role and becoming a productive part of a pro offense due to his solid pass-catching ability.
- C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame. Injury and depth issues thrust Prosise into the role of lead back in 2015. He responded with a head-turning campaign that saw him surpass 1,000 rushing yards and find the end zone 11 times – not bad for a player who never suited up at the position prior to last spring. He possesses solid size and athleticism, but a lack of experience points to him being a work in progress, albeit one with fantastic upside.
Wide Receivers
Laquon Treadwell
Junior, Ole Miss, 6-2, 221
Projected Round: 1
Combine Grade: 6.25, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: DeAndre Hopkins
2015 College Stats: 82/1,153/11, 14.1 YPR
Treadwell bounced back from a broken leg that ended his sophomore season in 2014 to lead the SEC in receiving last year, and earned All-SEC and All-American honors along the way. He also found himself as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver. Treadwell is noted for exceptional ball skills with great hands and a large, natural catching radius. He’s relatively average in the speed department, but has an extremely competitive nature that translates into strong blocking skills and a high success rate with jump balls. Route running could use some work, but the same can be said for most receivers taking the leap. Bottom line, Treadwell has the tools and fire to be a No.1 receiver in the NFL.
Will Fuller
Junior, Notre Dame, 6-0, 186
Projected Round: 1 or 2
Combine Grade: 6.28, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Ted Ginn Jr Jr.
2015 College Stats: 62/1,258/14, 20.3 YPR
A vertical threat with exceptional wheels, Fuller can make things happen after the catch and kick his speed up to an even higher level when needed. He was highly productive in his two years as a starter at Notre Dame, and exits the school as its second all-time leading touchdown receiver. Fuller is slight in frame, which could detrimental to his future as a run blocker, although he does show a willingness to get his hands dirty. He can also be prone to the dropsies and will need to put in the time to bring his route running up to snuff. He’ll be a work in progress, but he won’t wait too long to hear his name called with his speed and game breaking ability.
Corey Coleman
Junior(r), Baylor, 5-11, 194
Projected Round: 1
Combine Grade: 6.05, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: John Brown
2015 College Stats: 74/1,363/20, 18.4 YPR
2015’s Biletnikoff Award winner spent his college career as a high-volume target in the prolific offense at Baylor. His 20 touchdowns in 2015 were tops in the nation, further cementing his rep as one of the top playmakers in all of college football. Coleman is a fantastic athlete with blazing speed, excellent leaping ability, and the body control to make the acrobatic catch when needed. His size is less than ideal, but he plays with an aggressive mindset that could help to offset that concern. Drops and concentration can be an issue at times, but Coleman has a knack for making tacklers miss once he has the ball in his hands. He has experience in the return game and could find a role in that area from the outset while he rounds into form as a receiver.
Other WR’s To Keep In Mind
- Josh Doctson, TCU. Doctson enjoyed a productive 2015 campaign that saw him earn consensus first-team All-American honors, despite a wrist injury that brought an abrupt end to his amateur career. Height is not an issue for Doctson, who checks in at 6-2, but he’ll need to bulk up to absorb the requisite pounding at the NFL level. He brings great hands to the table and projects to be a solid No.2 receiver if he passes the growing pains stage.
- Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh. Boyd overcame erratic quarterback play during his tenure at Pitt, and enters the draft as the school’s all-time leading receiver in spite of it. He’s a great route runner with exceptional hands, but his lack of size and average speed may come back to haunt him as he transitions to the pros. That being said, his competitiveness, work ethic and hands could prove to be a great fit if he lands in the right offense.
- Michael Thomas, Ohio State. The nephew of former NFL standout Keyshawn Johnson, Thomas has a pedigree that points to the potential for big things in his future. He has great size and strength, but his route running could use some work, although that could be the result of a limited passing game playbook at Ohio State. Appears headed for a Round 2 selection due to his size and potential, but will need to land with a patient franchise to realize his ceiling.
- Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma. Shepard turned some heads during Senior Bowl week, taking home Practice Player of the Week honors at the wide receiver position. He’s on the smallish side at 5-10, 194 lbs., but he makes up for that with a tremendous burst that creates separation. Shepard also possesses the toughness that is a common trait in successful smaller receivers at the NFL level. He has solid hands and received praise at the combine for his work ethic and character.
- Braxton Miller, Ohio State. Miller transitioned from quarterback to wide receiver for his senior campaign, and enters the draft as one of its more intriguing prospects. He’ll be a work in progress due to limited experience at receiver, but his speed, athleticism, and well-built frame portend a successful transition. He brings a versatile skill set to the table and should find a role due to his ability to create and make things happen, but his route running needs work to insure long-term success.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry
Junior, Arkansas, 6-5, 250
Projected Round: 2
Combine Grade: 6.38, Chance To Become Good NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Jason Witten
2015 College Stats: 51/739/3, 14.5 YPR
Henry is the top tight end in this year’s draft and checks off all the boxes that point to long-term success at the position: size, athleticism, solid blocking ability and good hands. He racked up the honors for his junior season, taking home the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end, and was selected as both a first-team All-American and a first-team All-SEC selection. During his career at Arkansas, Henry was more than comfortable lining up in multiple formations, and developed a reputation as reliable third-down target. As with most rookie tight ends, he’ll need to continue improving as a blocker. Bottom line, Henry will be the first tight end off the board and projects to have a bright future ahead.
Austin Hooper
Sophomore(r), Stanford, 6-4, 254
Projected Round: 2 or 3
Combine Grade: 5.75, Could Become Early NFL Starter
Comparable Player: Coby Fleener
2015 College Stats: 34/438/6, 12.9 YPR
Hooper is the latest in a long line of Stanford tight ends to make his way to the NFL. Recent Stanford alum at the tight end position that have successfully transitioned to the NFL include Zach Ertz and Coby Fleener. Hooper has the size to succeed at the next level and is regarded as a determined runner with the ability to gain yards after the catch. He’s noted for excellent hand-eye coordination, but could use some work on his route running as he was not a featured target during his college tenure. Hooper is more of a work in progress than Henry, but has the upside that should make him the second tight end off the board.
Other TE’s To Keep In Mind
- Nick Vannett, Ohio State. Vannett has the prototypical size that is sought after at the position, but he didn’t see a heavy volume of passes pointed in his direction during his college career. He did show some skills when given the chance and is pretty solid as a blocker, which points us to the upside of an every-down tight end.
- Jerell Adams, South Carolina. Adams is a versatile athlete that makes for an intriguing prospect as he checks off the boxes of size, speed and hands. The former high school basketball player has the upside to be an eventual starter, but will be a work in progress to round into the total package of run blocker and passing game threat.
- Tyler Higbee, Western Kentucky. Higbee is a converted wide receiver that was a large part of the passing game in college. A knee injury cost him some time last season, but he still wound up among the statistical leaders at the position. He could be an instant threat as a pass catcher, but will need to bulk up a bit and work on his blocking.
As with every draft, we’ll have the prospects that exceed – or at least live up to – expectations, some late round sleepers that use the chip on their shoulder to turbo charge their development, and several flameouts and disappointments. Projecting the draft and the future prospects of draftees is an inexact science. At this point, we have a good sense of the tools the prospects will bring to work. Now we’ll have to wait and see what they do with them, as well as whether or not they land in the right environment and system that will help maximize their potential. Enjoy the draft!