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Daily Fantasy Football is the ultimate week-to-week test of acumen. There is worry about bye weeks or injured players like in season-long formats. FanDuel offers a variety of cash and tournament contests consisting of a single week of matchups. Projecting player ownership to build lineups is an integral strategy to long-term success. Here are the key players for Week 9:
THE CHALK PLAYS
Colin Kaepernick (vs NO), $7,200: The Saints are a clear pass defense to target this season. No.30 in overall pass defense by ProFootballReference.com's Expected Points metric, New Orleans struggles to generate pressure (10 sacks this season) and are one of the few teams to allow at least 8.0 yards-per-attempt through the air. The worst passing performance of the season New Orleans has allowed outside the home dome was Alex Smith's 221 total yards and two touchdowns with 71% completion rate back in Week 7. Kaepernick is primed for his best performance of the season following games of 253 and 227 total yards respectively. Expect to see Kaepernick in the top-5 of quarterback ownership in the 10-20% range.
Dak Prescott (at CLE), $7,600: Strong interior pressure and occasional accuracy issues have been the lone blemishes for Prescott through half a season of starting in the NFL. Prescott's salary has remained relatively stable all season despite six straight games with at least 2.4x value returned on FanDuel. Prescott is a high-floor option with a 3-4x ceiling. The Browns are a below-average pass-rushing unit and have allowed an NFL-high 19 passing touchdowns and 8.4 yards-per-attempt. In eight games, seven times a quarterback has logged multiple passing touchdowns and in half the games they threw for three scores. Marcus Mariota was the lone quarterback on the Browns' schedule with similar mobility to Prescott. Mariota had 7-64-0 rushing in Week 6 against the Browns. Like Kaepernick, expect strong 10-20% ownership for Prescott.
Ezekiel Elliott (at CLE), $9,200: Elliott has hit 2x FanDuel value in each of the last five games. The Cowboys are the strongest favorites of the week at -7.5 even being on the road. The Browns are the 2nd-worst run defense by ProFootballReference.com and allowing the 2nd-highest yards-per-rush at 4.8. Every opposing team has generated a running back touchdown except Baltimore in Week 2 against Cleveland. The Bengals and Jets have logged five running back scores over the past two weeks against the struggling Browns. Elliott has gone 56 touches without a touchdown over the past two games - a strong regression candidate. Elliott is likely to lead the running back position in ownership, pushing 40% or more.
Devontae Booker (at OAK), $7,000: The Raiders are the 4th-worst run defense by ProFootballReference. All but Jacksonville's struggling run game have fared well against Oakland over the past month. Booker is a well-priced bell cow without much downside to his workload as the rookie saw 19-of-22 running back carries last week in his first start. Booker is a top-3 ownership candidate. Expect to see him in the 20-30% range.
Charcandrick West (vs JAX), $5,600: The Jaguars repeatedly produce positive game scripts for their opponents and West, with the Spencer Ware concussion lingering through Week 9, gets an uncontested start at a minimum price point. West is a chalk play with late-week clarity and a top-3 running back ownership lock of at least 25-30%.
Michael Thomas (at SF), $5,800: Thomas has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL this season. He has at least 44 yards in every game and at least five targets. Thomas is curiously still under $6,000 in salary despite hitting at least 2.3x value on FanDuel in 4-of-5 recent games. The 49ers are a neutral matchup for pass games overall but have allowed an NFL-high 13 touchdowns to wide receivers through seven games. Thomas is one of the glaring values for WR3 usage this week. Thomas is one of the top ownership options at receiver in the 20-30% range.
Antonio Brown (at BAL), $8,700: The Ravens have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers in the NFL (13) and Brown has his lowest salary of the season. Ben Roethlisberger is a question mark leading into the weekend, monitor his status. Brown is a touchdown candidate with two straight games without a score. Brown is a top tier ownership play this week in the 15-25% range.
Kyle Rudolph (vs DET), $5,000: The Lions are the worst pass defense in the NFL with a ridiculous 74% completion rate, and 19 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Add to overall struggles Detroit is the worst in the league against tight ends and they are a target matchup weekly. Kyle Rudolph gets Detroit this week in a 'get well' spot. Rudolph has underwhelmed three straight games with single-digit FanDuel points and no touchdowns over the span. With a low salary, Rudolph's lowest since Week 1, he is a strong play on all fronts, including a 20-30% ownership projection.
Mason Crosby ($4,700): The Packers are the top Vegas team total of the week (30.5 points) and strong touchdown favorites over Indianapolis. Anytime a kicker is on a top offense with the backing of Vegas for less than the elite FanDuel positional salaries, he is a strong play. The Colts have also allowed an NFL-high 24 field goal attempts on the season.
Dolphins (vs NYJ), $4,700: Like the Colts mentioned in the Chalk section for defensive matchups to target, the Jets are in the next tier. They are middle of the road for sacks allowed but have been turnover machines with 17 (2nd-most in the NFL) to-date. In half their games, the Jets have turned the ball over multiple times. Miami is No.6 against the run by ProFootballReference and also above-average versus the pass. Miami is one of the top ownership plays, nearing 10%.
Cowboys (at CLE), $4,900: The Browns struggle to protect their string of quarterbacks this season to the tune of 22 sacks allowed (4th-most in the NFL). Dallas is an average pass-rushing unit, but stop the run at an above-average rate by ProFootballReference measures to turn teams more one-dimensional. In fact, Dallas has faced the fewest rushing attempts (151) against them in the NFL through Week 8. Like the Dolphins, the Cowboys are in the 5-10% ownership projection for Week 9.
THE SNEAKY PLAYS
Joe Flacco (vs PIT), $7,500: Baltimore has struggled to protect Flacco this season. However, Week 9 offers a strong matchup against the pressure-challenged defensive front of the Steelers (an NFL-low eight sacks). The Steelers also have just three interceptions on the season. Flacco has multiple touchdown appeal this week when few stand out as overt values. Expect to see Flacco with less than 5% ownership, if not lower than 3% in FanDuel contests.
Trevor Siemian (at OAK), $7,200: The Raiders are a pass defense to target. They are allowing the 3rd-most yards-per-completion in the NFL, a strong 15 touchdowns through the air, and struggle to generate pressure. Three quarterbacks have logged at least three touchdowns against Oakland this season. Even the limited Tampa Bay pass game mustered two touchdowns through the air last week. Siemian has just two touchdowns over his last 113 attempts and is a strong regression candidate. Siemian is projected as one of the lowest owned quarterbacks of the week in the 1-3% range.
Jonathan Stewart (at LA), $6,400: Stewart offers a strong volume floor for a low salary. The Rams are a neutral matchup for opposing running backs. Stewart has seen at least 15 touches in three of his four active games this season. Stewart has been used more in the red zone with Cam Newton absorbing a number of big hits early this season. Expect 5-10% ownership for Stewart as there is a trio of chalk plays at the position this week.
Darren Sproles (at NYG), $4,800: Sproles dominated the work in Week 8 as Ryan Mathews turned into a shadow among the Eagles running back rotation. The Giants are a neutral matchup by fantasy points, but ProFootballReference depicts a different story as the Giants are the 8th-best matchup for opposing run games. For a near-minimum salary, Sproles offers 15+ touch upside for tournaments. Sproles, like Stewart, is a 5-10% ownership projection this week.
Stefon Diggs (vs DET), $6,500: The Lions are the 2015 Saints in terms of poor pass defense. From wide receivers to tight ends, they are a matchup to target weekly. Diggs had his best game since the opening weeks of the season in Week 8 and Minnesota is an overall regression candidate after a poor showing a week ago. Diggs is at his lowest salary since Week 2. Despite the strong matchup, Diggs is a 5-10% ownership candidate this week.
Demaryius Thomas (at OAK), $7,400: Thomas has seen at least six targets in every game this season and 10 in each of the last three weeks. The Raiders are an above-average matchup for wide receivers (and pass games overall, see Trevor Siemian below) and struggle to produce consistent pressure. Oakland is allowing 8.1 yards-per-attempt, 3rd-most in the NFL and 12.9 yards per completion are also among the highest in the league. Thomas is likely in the sub-5% ownership bucket for Week 9.
Dennis Pitta (vs PIT), $5,200: The Steelers are an above-average matchup for tight ends. Pitta has been highly involved in the Ravens pass game with at least eight targets in five of the last six games, including 10 targets in the past two games played. Touchdowns had eluded Pitta, who has not been a strong touchdown producer over his career, but Pitta is entering Jason Witten territory of touchdown regression with 38 catches on the season without finding paydirt after 16 catches in 2014 - his last NFL action - also without a touchdown. Expect less than 5% ownership for Pitta.
Wil Lutz ($4,500), Josh Lambo ($4,600): After Green Bay at the top, the Saints and Chargers are in the next tier of Vegas team totals for Week 9. Both kickers are available for close to minimum salary at the position.
Packers (vs IND), $4,400: Like the Lions pass defense, the Colts are an offense to target for defensive plays. They are lapping the NFL field with a whopping 31 sacks allowed through eight games and have allowed at least five sacks in four different games this season. The Packers are an above-average pass rushing team at nearly three sacks per week. With a low salary and strong 7-point favorites, look for a high-floor with 3x or better upside from the Packers defense. With only a couple chalk plays this week, Green Bay blends into the low ownership plays at 5% or less.