Welcome to the Exclamation Point!, an analysis of stand-out cash and GPP options for consideration on Yahoo Daily Fantasy Sports. The main slate this week is 2 games short, with a couple teams on byes in addition to the early game from London. Prices overall appear to be up on Yahoo—both Antonio Brown and Drew Brees hit the $40 mark, the first time any player has been priced that high this season. Do not worry though—there are plenty of value options this week, so let’s get right to it!
Quarterback
Cam Newton - $39 (Cash / GPP)
After quite the struggle last week against Minnesota, salvaged only by a lone rushing touchdown on the heels of three interceptions, Cam Newton will be expected to bounce back in a big way this week in his first divisional matchup against the Falcons. The Falcons secondary has allowed the 4th most passing yards (936) and tied for the 2nd most passing touchdowns (7) this season. To put that into perspective, the passing touchdowns allowed equates to one touchdown for every 13.1 pass attempts. The Falcons defensive line certainly contributes to these passing statistics, as they are tied for 2nd fewest sacks in the league with only three. With Cam Newton coming off a rough outing with ideal playing conditions (both defensively and environmentally in the dome / turf), expect a big performance out of him and the Panthers here. There are plenty of values at positions outside of quarterback, making it easier to stomach Newton’s top tier salary. With Cam Newton topping our Footballguys Interactive Value Chart for Yahoo in terms of total projected points and H-Value, he will serve as an ideal option in all formats.
Philip Rivers - $37 (Cash / GPP)
Week 4 brings the New Orleans Saints to San Diego to square off against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. It is evident through the first three weeks of the season that the Saints have one of the worst defenses in the league. This matchup has the highest point total of the week at 53.5, with the Chargers sporting the highest team implied total of 28.5 points. The Chargers offense is most certainly focused on the passing attack, with over a quarter of Rivers’ pass attempts this season coming from within the red zone. The salary is relatively high, but for good reason given this premier matchup. Ownership will be up there, making Rivers more of a cash game play—but a key stack with one of his big play wide receivers will provide solid upside in GPP formats.
Brian Hoyer - $23 (GPP)
First thing is first here---keep an eye on Jay Cutler’s injury situation. But if Brian Hoyer is starting for the Bears this week, he shapes up to be quite the value based on the spot they will be in. The Lions defense ranks last in the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. Both Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck fired up four passing touchdowns against them, while even Marcus Mariota managed to throw for his season high two passing touchdowns. The Lions offense has shown the ability to put up points this season, and with a banged up Bears defense on the other side of the field, Hoyer may very well be forced to pass often. The Bears rank last in the league in rushing attempts per game this season, and with Jeremy Langford now out, game flow could very well be in Hoyer's favor. Hoyer has shown his ability to put up big numbers in the past as he passed for multiple touchdowns in seven games last season with the Browns. While the floor is low with a guy like Brian Hoyer, he has significant upside and his price is about as low as it can get on Yahoo. Look to him in tournament formats so you can pay up for some of the elite wide receivers / running backs this week.
Running Back
LeVeon Bell - $31 (Cash / GPP)
LeVeon Bell finds his way back to the field this week, returning from serving a three-game suspension to start the season. To help ease concerns regarding workload, take into consideration that in his first game back from suspension last season (this is an embarrassing stat for a player to even have available by the way) Bell played all but three total snaps while DeAngelo Williams was on the field for only five. Coach Mike Tomlin told reporters on Tuesday that he is pleased with Bell’s level of conditioning, stating that “…you’re going to see LeVeon Bell and probably a lot of him on Sunday.” Regarding his matchup on the field, the stigma is that Kansas City has a stout defense. They are most certainly talented all around, but the numbers say that Kansas City is giving up the 6th most rushing yards this season and 11th most fantasy points to running backs so far. Recency bias from the Steelers' poor outing last week combined with doubts about the matchup should detract a number of DFS players from the Steelers as a whole this week, but the Steelers still have a top-five team implied total as favorites at home. Bell can be rostered in all formats as his salary is as low as you may see it all season. Be sure to gain some exposure in tournaments, as his ownership this week may also be about as low as you will see it all season.
Jordan Howard - $14 (Cash / GPP)
Jordan Howard has a great opportunity this week to fill in as the Bears lead back. Jeremy Langford was already losing snaps to Howard and is now out 4-6 weeks with high-ankle sprain. Ka’Deem Carey is also expected to be out this week with a hamstring injury, so you only have Joique Bell and Raheem Mostert to threaten the rookie. In his limited work this season, Howard is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and just over nine yards per reception. He does have somewhat of a mediocre matchup here against a Detroit defense that is susceptible to the run, but has yet to allow a rushing touchdown all season. Last season though, the Lions allowed a league-3rd 14 total rushing touchdown, so to think that they will go 4 weeks in a row with no rushing touchdowns allowed seems quite unlikely. At this price, Howard does not even need to find the end zone to hit value—so feel free to roll him out in cash games and GPP’s alike.
Dwayne Washington - $10 (GPP)
Dwayne Washington has been seeing a steady increase this season to his role in the offense, spiked last week in particular due to their first game without Ameer Abdullah in play. Washington has been on the field for an increasing number of snaps each week, playing for 25 snaps with 10 carries and 1 target last week. Washington averaged 3.8 yards per carry in Week 3 while Theo Riddick managed only 0.9 yards per carry on an equal 10 attempts. Seeing the ineffectiveness of Riddick on the ground, the Lions very well may give Washington the lion’s share of carrier this week. At a minimum price salary against a banged up Bears defensive line allowing the 9th most fantasy points to running backs, Washington is definitely worth a shot in GPP lineups as he will have some nice touchdown upside.
Mark Ingram - $30 (GPP)
The Saints have not been using Mark Ingram as much as one would have thought at this point in the season, however his trend has been an upward one. The Chargers have been historically inept against running backs, allowing the 5th most points to that position last season. Last week against the Colts, the Chargers allowed two rushing touchdowns by the Colts shaky rushing offense. They Chargers have really struggled against pass-catching backs this year, allowing the 2nd most receptions and over 200 receiving yards to running backs this season. Mark Ingram is a clear duel-threat back, and while he has not been heavily used in the rushing game, he remains the Saints’ #1 option on the ground. Most will pivot up $1 to LeVeon Bell for $31, so Ingram ownership should be quite depressed. With the upside from what looks to be a high-scoring affair against a defense that can be gashed by dual-threat backs like Ingram, look for him as a high upside GPP option.
Wide Receiver
Terrelle Pryor Sr. - $17 (Cash / GPP)
Terrelle Pryor was a much needed spark to the Browns offense last week as he carried all aspects of their offense, amassing over 140 yards receiving, 21 yards rushing, and 35 yards passing. Pryor is is 2nd to only Gary Barnidge in terms of Browns skilled players being on the field this season. Pryor is also 2nd in the league thus far in target share with nearly 32% of the Browns’ pass attempts going towards him. With Corey Coleman out and Josh Gordon still sidelined, the Browns have little options other than Pryor with which they can move the ball on offense. The Redskins defense have allowed over 100 yards to each WR1 they have faced this season. With Pryor not only involved heavily as a receiver, but the upside of getting snaps at quarterback, he will have some tremendous upside this week. At a sub-$20 price tag, it is hard to ignore Pryor in any format. He is the clear leader in H-Value at wide receiver on our Footballguys Interactive Value Chart for Yahoo and may represents a solid play in all formats, particularly cash games as his ownership should be through the roof.
Cole Beasley - $18 (Cash / GPP)
Cole Beasley has performed quite well for the Cowboys this season, stepping up in big situations to help his rookie quarterback. Chemistry between Beasley and Dak Prescott has been extremely solid, as Beasley has been the most productive receiver on the team with 25 targets, 20 receptions (nearly double that of Dez Bryant with 11), and 213 yards. Dez Bryant should not be on the field in this contest, so Beasley’s value takes a significant bump. In seven games without Bryant on the field, Beasley has averaged nearly 30% more fantasy points than when Bryant was playing. With the 49-ers playing at an NFL-high pace due to Chip Kelly’s offense, opposing offenses get the opportunity to run more plays than they otherwise would against a team that holds on to the ball longer. Given the bump in value from Bryant’s absence combined with the usage upside and pace of play benefit, Beasley should have a high enough floor to warrant significant consideration in cash game lineups this week at his price.
DeAndre Hopkins - $35 (GPP)
The Texans WR1 DeAndre Hopkins has had very consistent volume so far this season with at least eight targets in every game so far, including 2 touchdowns and over 220 receiving yards. While Hopkins has yet to have a huge game this season, he is one of the elite receivers in the game that can break out at any point. This week, there are a number of reasons why the masses will be looking past Hopkins. First and foremost, Hopkins is quite expensive at $35 this week. Rookie Will Fuller has cut into the production his production quite a bit as the two are almost even in terms of targets with Fuller actually accounting for 19 more receiving yards than Hopkins. Brock Osweiler looked atrocious last week against New England, limiting the scoring potential of this entire offense. While the matchup improves slightly here, the Titans defense has actually been very serviceable this season, contributing to why this game actually has the lowest point total of the week at just over 40. However, given these negatives, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Hopkins tends to really step up his game against the Titans, averaging 111 yards per game with five total touchdowns in his three-year career when facing them. This week, there is a good chance that Hopkins will be matched up with cornerback Perrish Cox on a number of plays. Cox grades out as the absolute worst cornerback in the NFL this season according to Pro Fantasy Focus. Hopkins will dominate this matchup and have a chance to make huge plays here. Given his upside and what looks to be extremely low ownership, Hopkins will be a very sneaky play that could pay huge dividends in GPP’s this week.
Larry Fitzgerald - $30 (GPP)
Larry Fitzgerald is a key component of the Cardinals offense on a weekly basis, having yet to receive single digit targets in a game this season. He was held to under 10 fantasy points for the first time last week due to a Carson Palmer meltdown against the Bills, but the Cardinals should be primed for a bounce back game this week against a Rams defense that was shredded last week by Jameis Winston. The Rams defense is allowing the 2nd most targets and receptions to wide receivers this season. While the touchdowns have not been there (only allowed one), it is only a matter of time before someone breaks off multiple receiving scores against this defense that has really underperformed on the road this season (allowing a combined 60 points in their two road games). Larry Fitzgerald has had seven or more receptions in each of his last six outings against the Rams, and there are question marks around Michael Floyd’s availability along with John Brown’s usage (only on field 60% of the time). All of these factors point to a significantly high ceiling for Fitzgerald this week. At the $30 price tag, ownership should be down quite a bit, making Fitzgerald an excellent target in GPP rosters.
Tight End
Hunter Henry - $10 (Cash)
It was quite odd to see the rookie Hunter Henry priced at the minimum salary this week. With Antonio Gates very unlikely to play, Henry will definitely be the TE1 on the field in a prime matchup with the Saints. In last week’s game, Henry got the start and played all 59 snaps in place of Gates. While he was only targeted 5 times, Henry made the most of it by converting all five targets for 76 yards. Henry did cough up a costly late game fumble, but he otherwise performed well. With the Chargers sporting the highest team total of the week, Henry only needs a few opportunities to hit his 7 point value target for cash games. He tops our Footballguys Interactive Value Chart for Yahoo in terms of H-Value at the position by a wide margin this week, so don’t hesitate at all in plugging in Hunter Henry to allow spending up elsewhere in your cash game rosters.
Greg Olsen - $24 (Cash / GPP)
Greg Olsen is the dominant force at the tight end position thus far this season as he leads all tight ends in targets (27), receptions (18), and receiving yards (259). Olsen’s target distribution has been very consistent thus far with 9, 8, and 10 targets through the first three games, and there is no reason to expect that to drop off against the Falcons this week. The Falcons defense has allowed nearly 20 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, highest in the NFL by almost 1.9 points. With Cam Newton expected to have plenty of time to pass, Olsen should be in store for a slew of opportunities. While there are cheaper options out there if needed, Olsen’s consistency and hyper-positive matchup makes it worth paying up for some exposure in cash game lineups, and even worth the stack with Cam Newton in tournaments.
Kyle Rudolph - $15 (GPP)
Kyle Rudolph is another tight end to keep your eye on this week. The Giants are allowing an average of 10 targets per game to opposing tight ends, and Rudolph leads all NFL tight ends in target percentage with just over 28% of the Vikings’ passes going in his direction. Rudolph is a key red zone option for the Minnesota offense with two touchdowns already this season in addition to leading the team last season in red zone looks with 11. Sam Bradford targeted Rudolph more than any other receiver last week, so the chemistry is certainly there. This matchup combined with expected usage makes Rudolph a very interesting pivot either up or down from the aforementioned options here. His ownership should be lower than both Henry and Olsen, making Rudolph an ideal selection in tournament formats.
Defense
Houston Texans - $16 (Cash)
The Texans square off against the Titans in what looks to be a very slow moving, low scoring game. Both of these teams feature run-heavy approaches and actually rank 31st and 32nd in the league in points per play so far. With the Texans at home, they will have quite the favorable matchup as the Titans have been turnover-heavy this season with seven total (T-4th in NFL). Marcus Mariota has not been making sound decisions in his past few starts with 3 turnovers in his last outing. The recent loss of J.J. Watt certainly deals a blow to the Texans defense overall, but they still have a good enough matchup to hit value this week--and losing Watt may actually bump their ownership levels down slightly. Look for the Texans to easily hit their value target this week making them a solid, but still popular, play in cash games.
Oakland Raiders - $10 (GPP)
The Raiders defense had a very rough start of the season, ranking near dead last in the league through two games. However, last week against the Titans was quite the “get right” game as they really dominated the Titans offense holding them to only 10 points while forcing three turnovers. The Raiders will square off against the Ravens this week, an offense that ranks 23rd in total yardage and 24th in points per game. The rushing attack of the Ravens cannot be trusted, so the Raiders should be able to place more focus on preventing Joe Flacco from making plays against them through the air. The floor in this matchup is pretty low, but the ceiling could most certainly be there if the Raiders played like they did in Week 3. They will be what looks to be the most viable punt option of this slate on defense at minimum price, putting the Raiders in play mainly for GPP formats.