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The PP$ Battle Between the First and Second Tier of Wide Receivers

 Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, AJ Green and Jordy Nelson all face either tough or nuetral matchups in week 5, whereas Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks and Larry Fitzgerald have great matchups against the bottom four secondaries in the league (passing yards allowed).  Considering their matchups, which receivers offer the best PP$ value?  Which receivers are you considering using in cash games, and which receivers are you using in GPP's? 


BJ VanderWoude: Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, AJ Green and Jordy Nelson all face either tough or neutral matchups in week 5, whereas Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks and Larry Fitzgerald have great matchups against the bottom four secondaries in the league (passing yards allowed). Considering their matchups, which receivers offer the best PP$ value? Which receivers are you considering using in cash games, and which receivers are you using in GPP's?

 

Justin Bonnema: I’m all in on Nelson for both cash and GPP formats. He has everything going for him that you could possibly want in a wide receiver: volume, high-scoring offense, and a track record of elite performances. The matchup scares me none. The Cowboys secondary is terrible and their pass-rush barely exists outside of DeMarcus Lawrence. Every quarterback they’ve faced not named Manning has thrown for at least two scores and 230 yards. Trevor Siemian hit them up for four touchdowns, they allowed Carson Palmer to have the best game of his season, and if not for a slow start and a competent rushing attack via Gurley, Jared Goff would have had more than 255 yards and two touchdowns last week. Quarterbacks are living well against this secondary. Enter one of the best quarterback/wide receiver combos in Rodgers/Nelson, and you have the potential for a huge game (especially if Montgomery is ruled out).

James Brimacombe: I think Jordy Nelson is in a great spot against the Cowboys and even more so with Davante Adams likely to miss the game and with the team on their third-string running back who is a rookie. I think Nelson could easily see 10+ targets here and Rodgers will be looking at him not only down the field but also on the shorter passes to make up for the lack of a running attack. As far as cost savers this week in good matchups I am looking at DeVante Parker as a guy I want to have heavy exposure to and lock in at the position. The only downside to Parker is that he has Jay Cutler throwing him the ball and the Dolphins offense has been struggling to start the season. Parker so far has 9, 10, and 8 targets through three games and an 18/230/1 stat line on the season. The Dolphins play the Titans this week and the Titans are the 2nd worst team in defending the wide receiver position giving up 8 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over their first 4 games. To be exact 15 receptions, 172 yards, and 2 touchdowns on average they are giving up to opposing wide receivers. You have to like DeVante Parker this week along with Jarvis Landry and even Kenny Stills.

Dan Hindery: If Davante Adams is held out after suffering a concussion and Ty Montgomery is out due to his rib injury, then both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are very much in play for me in cash games and GPPs because both would see such heavy volume. The matchup sets up better for Cobb because the Cowboys defense plays the safeties further outside and makes things difficult for outside receivers while opening up opportunities for the slot receivers. We’ve seen Cooper Kupp and Larry Fitzgerald post top-12 fantasy scores from the slot against Dallas over the past two weeks. While the matchup isn’t ideal for Nelson, he is still easy to like this week. In his three full games this season, he has already caught 5 touchdown passes. Going back to last season, he has 19 touchdown catches in his last 19 games (not counting his 7 snaps in Week 2).

DeVante Parker is another wide receiver who stands out as a great value early in the week. Even though the Dolphins offense has been a mess early in the season, Parker has been solid. He has averaged 6 catches and 77 receiving yards per game (on 9 targets per game). He has proven to have a high floor with at least 8 targets and 12.5 or more DraftKings points in each outing. He has done so while matched up primarily against Casey Hayward, Morris Claiborne, and Marshon Lattimore. Hayward, Claiborne, and Lattimore are ranked 2nd, 52nd, and 7th respectively at the cornerback position by ProFootballFocus (while Claiborne isn’t ranked high, he is by far the best cornerback on the Jets, which pushes targets towards the other corners). In Week 4, Parker gets to face Logan Ryan and a reeling Tennessee Titans pass defense that has allowed 10-107-1 to DeAndre Hopkins and 10-105-1 to Doug Baldwin over the past two weeks. The combination of high floor and high ceiling make Parker a strong option in both cash and GPPs.

John Mamula: Last week on DraftKings, I targeted wide receivers such as DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Keenan Allen at the 6000-7200 price range. This seems to be the sweet spot as they can return 4x-5x value much easier as compared to a wide receiver priced above 8000. I expect to go back to the same strategy again this week due to the tight overall pricing as I plan to spend up at running back. Some receivers that I will be targeting in this price range are Keenan Allen, Randall Cobb, Devante Parker, Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, and Pierre Garcon. Cobb projects to be a solid cash game target if Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery are inactive.

Phil Alexander: My favorite wide receiver in both cash games and GPPs this week is Dez Bryant, particularly on DraftKings where he's inexplicably priced as the WR15. Bryant ranks as the PPR WR26 through the first four games, but he's faced a quartet of difficult one-on-one cornerback matchups to open the season in Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib, Patrick Peterson, & Trumaine Johnson. This week, he's at home, attached to a quarterback with the highest implied team total on the main slate, and his matchup against Green Bay cornerbacks Damarious Randall and Kevin King are far more forgiving. When Dallas faced off against Green Bay in last year's playoffs, Bryant exploded for a 9-132-2 receiving line. That's the ceiling we're looking at for Bryant this week and his floor hasn't been terrible given his tough assignments to open the season.

Chris Feery: I’m intrigued by Jordy Nelson for both cash and GPP purposes, but I’m leaning towards Randall Cobb as the better value for the Packers. As Dan pointed out, Larry Fitzgerald and Cooper Kupp have had field days out of the slot against the Cowboys, and Cobb can easily do the same - especially if the Packers injury situation stays as is. Similar to John, I like to stay in the middle price range, but I’m not shy about paying up when the situation calls for it. Using last week as an example, I was more than happy to pay up for A.J. Green in a good spot against the porous Browns, and that worked out ok. I felt the same about Julio Jones in anticipation of an overdue breakout game, but that didn’t turn out too swimmingly. Outside of Cobb, Mike Evans looks like a fine choice for Thursday Night lineups, but I’ll caution that this could be the week that the Patriots remember that they’re usually pretty good at canceling out their opponents top weapon. Larry Fitzgerald, DeVante Parker, and Pierre Garcon are some other intriguing names at this point, but the list will get longer as the week moves along.

 

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