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A look at Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, and Case Keenum's Value

Jared Goff, Blake Bortles and Case Keenum combined to throw for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in week 3, while all eclipsing a 4x multiple on their salary.  Their stellar play has not had an immediate impact on their salary though, as all continue to be priced very low. Will you have any exposure to these quarterbacks in week 4? Include both cash game and GPP opinions. 

BJ VanderWoude: Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, and Case Keenum combined to throw for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in week 3, while all eclipsing a 4x multiple on their salary. Their stellar play has not had an immediate impact on their salary though, as all continue to be priced very low. Will you have any exposure to these quarterbacks in week 4? Include both cash game and GPP opinions.

James Brimacombe: I will pass on Case Keenum and Blake Bortles this week but will look to Jared Goff as a GPP option. The last two quarterbacks to play against the Cowboys have had strong games with Trevor Siemian throwing for 231 yards and 4 touchdowns and Carson Palmer for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. Goff himself has improved and showed great poise over the first three games combining for 822 passing yards and 5 touchdown passes. This game has potential to be one of the higher scoring games on the slate and as we have seen with the Rams and 49ers game last week there will be plenty of scoring from the quarterback position. Through 3 games, Goff has shown a steady improvement in play over his rookie season where his numbers are already almost identical to what he did in 7 games last year as the starter.

Dan Hindery: I am not interested in Blake Bortles. On American soil, he is averaging 174 passing yards per game and has as many interceptions as touchdowns (2). Until I see more evidence, I am writing off the London performance as an anomaly.

Jared Goff is more intriguing. He is averaging 274 passing yards per game and has looked good doing it. He is facing a Dallas secondary that is vulnerable in a game that should be high-scoring. I’m not ready to back Goff on the road in what could be a slower-paced game in cash games. But I will want to have some GPP exposure.

Case Keenum is a tougher call. He’s had one awful game and one incredible game in his two starts. He has had some decent games in his career —including a 321 yard, 4 total touchdown performance against these Detroit Lions last season — and has one of the more underrated groups of passing game weapons in the league. He is also a 29-year old journeyman who entered this season with almost as many interceptions (20) as touchdowns (24) in his career. Like Goff, I will be looking to get some GPP exposure. Especially since his primary weapons (Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen) remain underpriced.

John Mamula: I'm passing on Blake Bortles this week and most weeks this season. The Jaguars are built to win via the running game and strong defense. That means steady consistent production from Leonard Fournette, who has scored in every game this season. Multiple touchdown performances will be a rarity from Bortles and it will be difficult to judge when/if they will occur.

I'm also passing on Case Keenum as his performance last week should also be viewed as an anomaly. For whatever reason, Keenum excels in matchups versus the Bucs. He is now 3-0 against Tampa Bay, including victories in 2016 and 2015 when he passed for two touchdowns in each game. Certain players are just a nightmare for certain teams. Just ask the Eagles what they think about Odell Beckham Jr. after the past couple of seasons. Keenum comes back down to earth this week and holds the fort down until Sam Bradford returns from injury.

The low-priced quarterback that has peaked my interest is Jarod Goff. First, we must realize that this is not the same Rams offense as last season and that Goff is in a completely different situation. The addition of Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Andrew Whitworth have transformed this offense. Rams coach Sean McVay has proven over the past two seasons that he is one of the best young play callers in the NFL. The Rams have eclipsed 40 points in two of his first three games as head coach. Jeff Fisher also cracked the 40 point threshold in two games but he coached the Rams for 77 games. The Rams should have no problem scoring on the Cowboys this week as Carson Palmer passed for 325 yards and two touchdowns and Trevor Siemian threw for
231 yards and four touchdowns.

Prediction: Jared Goff: 23 for 32 for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Justin Bonnema: I don’t want to say zero, but I will have very little exposure to any of those guys. Particularly Bortles, whose $7,700 on FanDuel and always a liability. Granted, he has a terrific matchup against the Jets, but the Jaguars will likely run until Leonard Fournette can no longer breathe. And honestly, Watson is a better value than all of them since he adds so much with his legs. If I’m going cheap at quarterback, he’s the answer.

Of the three, if I had to pick, it would be Goff. The Cowboys secondary isn’t good. They’ve allowed the 13th most passing yards and have allowed just as many touchdowns (six) as notably terrible secondaries such as the Saints and the Jets. Goff was excellent on the road last week, proving that perhaps he’s a legit quarterback option from this point going forward. He offers great value on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so I’ll be loading up a few Goff/Elliott stacks in a game the crowd is unlikely to stack.

Phil Alexander: Blake Bortles - The Jaguars defense should be able to manhandle Josh McCown and company, even on the road. They'll try to win this game the same way they try to win every game -- by forcing sacks and turnovers and pounding the ball with Leonard Fournette. Outside of the Jacksonville defense and maybe Marqise Lee on full PPR sites, this game is a total fade.

Case Keenum - Keenum's stellar Week 3 came against a flu-ridden Buccaneers team that didn't look prepared to play from the opening whistle. He's much closer to the guy who torpedoed the values of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs in Week 2 than the world beater he looked like against Tampa Bay. I'll have some GPP exposure to Diggs since he's a transcendent talent and the Vikings are at home, but expecting Keenum to come close to last week's numbers is silly.

Jared Goff - The Cowboys have allowed a combined 556 passing yards and six touchdowns to Trevor Siemian and Carson Palmer over the last two weeks. Do I think Sean McVay -- and by extension the much improved Goff -- can figure out how to hang fantasy points on this defense? Absolutely. But before I pull the trigger on Goff this week, I'm interested in whether or not Sammy Watkins clears the concussion protocol. Even if Watkins hasn't always been a focal point this season, his mere presence on the field opens things up for Goff, Gurley, and the entire Rams offense. As long as Watkins is active, Goff warrants a few GPP shares, but if I'm spending down at quarterback, I'd much rather use Siemian at home vs. the Raiders than any of the three quarterbacks in question.

Justin Howe: Bortles isn't in my immediate plans in any DFS format. He threw four touchdowns in Week 3, but not with any kind of indicator to expect similar games going forward. He doesn't have a voluminous or potent connection with any of his post-Allen Robinson receivers, which affects stacking possibilities; outside of heavy-entry GPPs, I don't see a receiver to pair him with to maximize Jaguars production. And on that note, I'm not interested in investing in Jaguars production anyway. This is a team that knows how anemic its passing game is and wants to hide it. They're content trying to win 13-10, not putting the game into Bortles' hands and risking a lot of 27-13 losses. You also have to worry about a mid-game benching with Bortles, who's probably still a multi-turnover first half of hitting the pine. Bortles' $19 million contract is guaranteed for injury, and I can't imagine the Jaguars are excited to pay him that. All told, he carries way, way too many warts to pay anything more than his $4,400 salary on DraftKings in Week 2. Even that prices him near his realistic ceiling on most weeks.

I'm a little intrigued by Keenum, who's not as bad as his 2017 reputation seems to suggest. He's always flashed competent QB2 ability, and he's generally not afraid to take big shots downfield. Most importantly for GPP purposes, he throws to two dynamic receivers that create big plays down the field - a recipe for occasional tournament value. Most weeks, he'll reach his GPP value marker with around 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is a fair expectation in some matchups. I'll likely never touch Keenum in a cash game - especially now that he costs more than 7-8% of my cap - but I may take a shot at stacking him with Stefon Diggs and/or Adam Thielen in a deeper GPP.

Goff, on the other hand, looks ready to roll as an every-week punt option. Pricing is tightening, and he's rising into the low-end QB cost tier. But at the moment, he's still priced below the more established (yet similarly volatile) options in that cohort, like Eli Manning and Trevor Siemian. And bear in mind - a salary will only rise at this rate if there's been some consistency to the value there. Goff has already posted two value-busting games, and even though his volume generally doesn't project well, his playmakers are really maximizing his opportunity. His points-per-attempt has been better through three weeks than those of Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers. That makes him a strong weekly GPP option, as well as the sturdiest cash option in the range of QB15 and beyond.

 

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