Below is our game-by-game previews on which players should be considered on your roster as well as which players you may want to stay away from.
Mississippi At Mississippi STate
Kickoff: 7:00PM EST
Spread: Mississippi -1
O/U: 63
Mississippi
Team Expected Points: 32
QB- Chad Kelly- $6,900
Analysis:
Over the last two games, Chad Kelly has started running at an elite pace. In the two games against Arkansas and LSU, he has run for 191 yards and five touchdowns. This is more yards than he had ran in his previous nine games at quarterback. The matchup is relatively neutral as Mississippi State ranks right in the middle in both passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed in the SEC and in the country.
Recommendation:
Kelly at $6,900 is one of the top plays on the slate as his upside is huge if he continues to run the football. There are other quarterbacks with safer floors such as Goff, Mayfield and Prescott, but if you’re looking for a cheap quarterback Kelly is that guy to target.
WR- Laquon Treadwell $6,500
Analysis:
Laquon Treadwell has been one of the best wide receivers in the country this year, and while he had a poor game last week against a good LSU pass defense, he should be able to rebound nicely against Mississippi State. Prior to the LSU game, Treadwell had over 100 yards and a touchdown in five straight games and we look for him to do this again this week.
Recommendation:
Treadwell is a great start as there is a lack of wide receivers on this slate as it is very run heavy.
Mississippi State
Team Expected Points: 32
QB- Dak Prescott $8,400
Analysis:
Dak Prescott might be the best football player to have ever played at Mississippi State, and if you’re into narratives Senior Day in college football is always a good one. Prescott has now thrown for over 300 yards in five straight games and we fully expect him to do this again today. Mississippi’s run defense is one of the best in the country, but they are vulnerable in the pass defense as they are 100th in the nation in passing yards allowed which is the second worst in the SEC. Only Arkansas is worse, and Prescott threw for 500 yards in that game.
Recommendation:
Prescott has the highest ceiling in a GPP this week and makes for the top overall GPP play. He is a great cash game and GPP play as a high floor high ceiling play is what you're looking for when building a lineup. He is expensive, but with so few elite options on the slate especially at the wide receiver position if you're able to fit him in he's a great play. Don't expect the same production as last week, but 350 yards and three touchdowns should be realistic.
WR- Fred Ross $5,100
Analysis:
Over the last three games, Fred Ross has been incredible. He is averaging 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown and this game should be no different. Ross is a player who earlier in the season dealt with some inconsistency, but has really come out to shine when Mississippi State needed him the most. Ole Miss has one of the worst pass defenses in the country, so this should be another great opportunity for Ross to continue the trend of his last three games.
Recommendation:
This is a situation where you want to exploit the pricing inefficiency in a site, put Fred Ross in all of your lineups this week.
Florida State At Florida
Kickoff: 7:15 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -2
O/U: 43
On a ten game slate, it is hard to fade a game completely, but with an under less than 45 this game should be a low scoring game as both teams rank in the top 20 in total defense. If you’re in a GPP, Kermit Whitfield is interesting at $4,500 as he has had 11 receptions for 208 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games. We do not recommend him in cash games however, due to Florida having one of the best secondaries in the country led by Vernon Hargreaves.
Notre Dame At Stanford
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -3
O/U: 56
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points- 26.5
RB- Josh Adams- $5,900
Analysis:
C.J. Prosise is expected to miss this game this week, which is a huge blow to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. Josh Adams has filled in admirably for the injured Prosise, and has an opportunity to do so in the biggest stage of his career, as the freshman looks to go for over 100 yards for the third time this season. Stanford always has a tough defense, but they have been vulnerable on the ground at times. While their 126 yards per game on the surface looks great, they play in a pass heavy Pac-12, Adams has faced three very difficult matchups this season performing well in two of them.
Recommendation:
At $5,900 Adams is a GPP only play, and more of a contrarian play as he will likely be very low owned due to the stigma of the Stanford defense. His ceiling is relatively limited, as this should be a low scoring game, but going over 100 yards and a touchdown is not out of the question. We would not recommend him in cash games this week.
Stanford
Team Expected Points- 29.5
RB- Christian McCaffrey- $8,500
Analysis:
If you haven’t had a chance to watch Christian McCaffrey this season due to most of the games being on very late at night do yourself a favor and watch this game. McCaffrey is one of the most electric players we have seen in the last ten years of college football, and comparisons to all-time greats such as Reggie Bush and Barry Sanders. He is on pace to break Barry Sanders’ single season all-purpose yard record of 3,250 yards and Barry Sanders Jr. is one of McCaffrey’s teammates at Stanford. Notre Dame cannot stop the run, as they have allowed 168 yards rushing this season and they have not faced a running back who is as good as McCaffrey. The one caveat is that McCaffrey does not get goal line carries which hinders his production at times.
Recommendation:
While the lack of touchdowns is concerning, McCaffrey can be considered for cash games due to his pass catching ability to hopefully offset some of that lost production scoring touchdowns. He makes for an elite GPP play as his upside is higher than anyone on this slate.
Texas A&M At LSU
Kickoff: 7:15PM EST
Spread: LSU -6
O/U: 55
Texas A&M
Team Expected Points- 24.5
RB- Tra Carson- $5,200
Analysis:
This game is going to be all about which LSU team shows up this week. With all the rumors going around about Les Miles this team is either going to come out and play inspired football, or continue the trend that they are on as they have not been able to stop anyone over the last three games. Tra Carson quietly has put up four straight 100 yard rushing games which is something we typically do not see from a Kevin Sumlin offense. While LSU’s defense statistically has great numbers against the run, this has not been the case recently as they have allowed over 150 total yards rushing in each of the last three games including two huge games from Derrick Henry and Alex Collins.
Recommendation:
At $5,200 Carson can be considered as a cash game play, but doesn’t have the upside needed in order to be a great GPP play. There is some risk, as if the LSU team shows up inspired like they were earlier in the season, it could be a tough day for the Aggies this week.
LSU
Team Expected Points- 29.5
RB- Leonard Fournette- $8,600
Analysis:
If you have been following us all season, you would have known that we were one of the only sites that predicted Fournette was a product of his schedule and that his production was not sustainable. The previous three games were against incredibly difficult defenses, and he only exceeded 100 yards rushing once in those three games. The good news, is that Texas A&M has one of the worst run defenses in the country and the worst in the SEC. Their pass defense is very good, so they should be able to shut down Brandon Harris and the passing attack which will leave plenty of opportunity for Fournette.
Recommendation:
This is Leonard Fournette's week, and we are all in on him. He has the highest ceiling of any running back and will be one of the first running backs we put in our lineups this week.
Oklahoma At Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -7
O/U: 67
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points- 37
QB- Baker Mayfield- $8,600
Analysis:
As much as everyone loves Baker Mayfield, if you look at his stat lines, he has largely been overrated from a fantasy perspective this year due to the blowouts that Oklahoma has put on their opponents. He is dealing with a concussion and one big hit could end his day this week, which limits his upside due to not running as much as we have seen in the last two games. Oklahoma State has been vulnerable to the pass this year allowing 250 yards passing per game which is 93rd in the country in terms of passing yards allowed. The problem is that if Oklahoma gets out to an early lead, they’re content running the ball 40 times in a game and just grind out a win.
Recommendation:
Mayfield is a GPP only play, and should not be considered for cash games. His floor is just too low to justify the price tag. He does have 350 yards and four touchdown upside, but that is essentially what he needs in order to pay off his salary if he is not going to run the ball with the injury.
RB- Samaje Perine $7,500
Analysis:
Finally we are seeing the return of the 2014 Samaje Perine, as the offensive coordinator has backed off on the air raid attack and realized what a special player he has with Samaje. He has ten touchdowns in his last five games and the matchup is a good one. Oklahoma State has allowed 170 yards per game which when it is matchup adjusted is one of the worst in the country. This should provide plenty of opportunity especially with Mayfield not at 100% health this week.
Recommendation:
Perine is a great GPP play, as he has 2-3 touchdown upside and has gone over 150 yards in three of his last five games. He is dealing with an ankle injury which limits his floor, but all signs are pointing to him playing this week.
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points- 30
WR- James Washington/Marcell Ateman
Analysis:
Picking Oklahoma State wide receivers is one of the more difficult things to do in college football DFS. Here is how we would rank them this week, the matchup is not a great one as Oklahoma has only allowed 190 yards passing this season, but this has largely been a product of their schedule, as they have had some fortunate luck this season in their opponents not having their starting quarterbacks. James Washington is the top GPP option on this slate, but we are not recommending him in cash games as his floor is four receptions for 50 yards which at that price is too much of an issue. Marcell Ateman is a better suited to be used in both cash games and GPP’s as his price is much better than Washington this week. Ateman has gone over 80 yards in each of his last three games, which while the matchup is difficult this week if he can go over 80 yards again this week and potentially get in the end zone he becomes a great bargain.
Colorado State At Fresno State
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: Colorado State -10
O/U: 59
Colorado State
Team Expected Points- 34.5
RB- Dalyn Dawkins/Izzy Matthews- $4,900/$4,200
Analysis:
Dalyn Dawkins is a running back who is great between the twenty yard line, but once the team gets into the red zone, they utilize other running backs or throw the ball which kills his value. He is only 5’9’’ 175 pounds, so he is a small running back, but he is a very talented running back who is in a great matchup this week as Fresno State is allowing 232 yards rushing per game this season. Izzy Matthews is a player who has been contingent upon Jasen Oden’s health and when Oden has been out he has produced, as he has three touchdowns in the last two games that Oden was unable to play.
Recommendation:
Dawkins makes for a good cash game play this week, but be careful with Izzy Matthews. We may see Jasen Oden try to go this week due to it being his last regular season game as a Senior, so the amount of information that we may have is going to be limited. If you find out Oden is out, Matthews becomes a premiere play in both GPP’s and cash games.
Fresno State
Team Expected Points- 24.5
Fresno State spreads the ball around more than any team in the country this season, as they have four different quarterbacks who have played, and seven receivers who have 15 or more receptions but none who have over 42 which at this point in the season is very low. If you’re looking for a GPP play, Marteze Waller would be the guy, although he has been very poor this year compared to past seasons averaging only 4.0 yards per carry.
Arizona State At Cal
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: Cal -3
O/U: 68
Arizona State
Team Expected Points- 32.5
WR- Devin Lucien- $5,200
Analysis:
Devin Lucien is finally showing the breakout ability we had all hoped for from the former UCLA player. He has scored a touchdown in four of his last six games while going over 100 yards in two of those six. The matchup is a tough one as Cal has been significantly better against the pass than the run.
Recommendation:
Lucien is a GPP play only as his floor combined with his price is lower than what we typically we would want to see, but he has the upside to put up another thirty point game as he did last week.
RB- Kalen Ballage- $5,100
Analysis:
Over the last four games, Ballage has had 97 total yards or more in each of those games. Cal is 107th in the nation as they have allowed 205 yards per game rushing. Ballage has scored three touchdowns in the last four games, and has solidified himself into a significant role in this offense.
Recommendation:
Ballage is pretty safe to get over 100 total yards this week and makes for a great cash game play. The issue is that he does not get the volume of touches to be a GPP play as typically we are going to look for 18-20 carries, which is unlikely to happen.
Cal
Team Expect Points- 35.5
QB- Jared Goff- $7,400
Analysis:
Jared Goff has one of the highest floors on this slate. Goff has thrown for 300+ yards in eight of his teams eleven games this season and has thrown for two or more touchdowns in every game. Arizona State is 126th in the nation in passing yards allowed, as they are allowing 301 passing yards per game. This is the best matchup that Goff has all season and should make for a great opportunity for him this week.
Recommendation:
Goff is our top quarterback option, as he very easily could pass for 400 yards and four touchdowns.
WR- Bryce Treggs- $4,900
Analysis:
This one is completely dependent on Kenny Lawler’s status. If he is good to go, Treggs gets a downgrade, but there is going to be a lot of passing yards in this game, and Treggs is the deep threat for Jared Goff. Treggs showed up in a big way last week as he had seven receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown, and we can expect a similar performance if Lawler is out.
Recommendation:
If Lawler is out, Treggs immediately is one of the top options on this slate, but if Lawler is playing, both Lawler and Treggs become GPP plays. Goff does such a great job of spreading the ball around that it is hard to trust all of their receivers.
Air Force At New Mexico
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: Air Force -10
O/U: 53
Air Force
Team Expected Points: 31.5
RB- Jacobi Owens- $5,000
Analysis:
Jacobi Owens is a product of the triple option offense, which means that there is going to be up and down performances. New Mexico allows 192 yards rushing per game which is extremely poor and the triple option should be able to exploit this. The issue is that it is entirely based on the game script, as he has had games with 29 carries and games with 8 carries just due to how the defense is lining up.
Recommendation:
Owens is a great GPP play, but he is cheap enough that he provides a great value for cash games if you’re looking to find a cheap running back.
New Mexico
Team Expected Points- 21.5
New Mexico is going up against an Air Force team that is one of the best defenses in the country. Air Force is going to slow this game down and just grind out a win which leaves very little opportunity for New Mexico in this game.
Nevada At San Diego State
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: San Diego State -17
O/U: 50
Nevada
Team Expected Points: 16.5
San Diego State has a top ten defense this year and has not allowed 100 yards this season to a running back. This is a situation to avoid.
San Diego State
Team Expected Points- 33.5
RB- Donnell Pumphrey- $7,900
Analysis:
Donnell Pumphrey has gone over 100 yards in each of his last seven games this season. Nevada is allowing 177 yards rushing per game, which provides for a great opportunity for Pumphrey this week to have a big game against Nevada.
Recommendation:
If you are looking to pivot off of Fournette, Pumphrey is the second best option on this slate and can be used in both cash games and GPP’s.
Louisiana Monroe At Hawaii
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: Hawaii -6
O/U: 56
Louisiana Monroe
Team Expected Points: 25
WR- Marcus Green- $3,900
Analysis:
Hawaii has one of the worst defenses in the country and everyone is in play for Louisiana Monroe, but our favorite player is Marcus Green. Prior to last week, Marcus had scored a touchdown in five consecutive games, and it looks promising for him to get back on track this week. He is also a volume receiver as he has six or more receptions in five of his last six games including three of those in which he had eight or more receptions.
Recommendation:
He is the premiere punt play on this slate as at $3,900 with a very good chance to get to 15 points he is very likely to make value.
Hawaii
Team Expected Points- 33.5
RB- Paul Harris- $6,600
Analysis:
It’s amazing how many awful run defenses are on this slate, and Louisiana Monroe is another one. So far this season they have allowed 216 yards rushing per game, and with Hawaii being a rare favorite in this game, we expect that Harris should have a great day this week. Over his last three games Harris has ran for 125 yards or more in each of these games, and while his price is starting to creep up based on past performance, he is in a great opportunity to succeed this week.
Recommendation:
Harris is a great GPP play, as if you’re going to spend up for him in cash, we prefer finding the extra salary to put in Pumphrey.
