Below is our game-by-game previews on which players should be considered on your roster as well as which players you may want to stay away from.
Georgia State At Georgia
Kickoff: 7:00PM EST
Spread: Georgia -13.5
O/U: 50.5
Georgia State
Team Expected Points: 18.5
RB- Matt Breida- $6,500
Analysis:
Georgia this season on paper has been great against running backs, but against teams that are committed to the run they have been exposed this season. Georgia is coming off a game where they allowed 218 yards rushing and 5.8 yards per carry. Breida is a running back that will get 15-18 carries in this game, and Georgia will have difficulties stopping the triple option offense this week.
Recommendation:
Breida is a GPP play only this week as while the matchup is a tough one, Georgia has allowed only 139 yards rushing per game, but their variance in those games is significant enough that Breida can be considered for GPP’s. He should only be considered a contrarian play, as he will be under-owned and the price is a good oen.
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 32
RB- Sony Michel $9,000
Analysis:
Sony Michel is a volume machine at Georgia since Nick Chubb is out for the season. Excluding the game at Florida, he is averaging 23.5 carries per game. While the results of those carries have largely been variable he is still averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season. Georgia State is allowing 198 yards per game to teams that are far less talented than Georgia.
Recommendation:
At $7,300, the price is a difficult one, as we prefer Donnel Pumphrey to him, but Sony Michel should exceed 100 yards with the opportunity to score multiple touchdowns. He is a premiere cash game play if you are able to afford him in your salary.
Mississippi State At Arkansas
Kickoff: 7:15 PM EST
Spread: Arkansas -5
O/U: 57
Mississippi State
Team Expected Points- 26.5
QB- Dak Prescott- $8,000
Analysis:
Dak Prescott continues to be one of the most under the radar players in college football. He has thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games including games against Missouri and Alabama. Arkansas has been extremely vulnerable through the air allowing 282 yards passing per game, which should be a great opportunity for Prescott this week.
Recommendation:
Outside of Keenan Reynolds, Dak Prescott has the highest GPP ceiling of any quarterback on this slate. With his recent consistency in throwing for over 300 yards, he is safe enough to use in cash games this week.
WR- Fred Ross- $4,600
Analysis:
Over the last two games in the toughest matchups in the season, Fred Ross has 19 receptions for for 229 yards and a touchdown. While we think there is some significant regression coming for Ross based on his early season performance he is still in a great spot this week against a team that is allowing 282 yards passing per game.
Recommendation:
Ross makes for a great stack with Prescott, and due to his recent performance makes for a decent cash game play if you’re looking for a mid-priced wide receiver. He should see a significant amount of targets which is all you’re looking for at the $4,600 price range.
Arkansas
Team Expected Points- 30.75
QB- Brandon Allen- $5,300
Analysis:
Brandon Allen has some of the highest variance in college football. Just after a 442 yard six touchdown performance he only threw the ball 16 times for 141 yards. Allen faces a tough Mississippi State defense that allows only 195 yards per game passing. With Bret Bielema typically being a run first quarterback, it is hard to rust Allen on a go-forward basis.
Recommendation:
Allen is strictly a GPP play this week as you’re essentially counting on Mississippi State selling out to stop the run. He is typically a high variance play, and with a tough matchup cannot be considered in cash games even as for a punt play this week.
RB- Alex Collins- $6,900
Analysis-
Over the last four games, Alex Collins has 8 touchdowns and has gone over 100 yards rushing in each of these games. We had marked him as inconsistent early on in this season as he had a game with 54 yards and 26 yards, but outside of those games he has gone over 100 yards in every game this season. Mississippi State has allowed 175 yards rushing per game including a 204 yard performance form Derrick Henry last week.
Recommendation:
Collins is the premiere cash game play, and one of the top GPP plays of the day due to his ability to score multiple touchdowns. For GPP’s he is going to be touchdown dependent as his upside is relatively limited due to not as high as he doesn’t have as many touches as Pumphrey or Michel.
Navy At Tulsa
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Navy -13
O/U: 68
Navy
Team Expected Points- 40.5
QB- Keenan Reynolds- $8,100
Analysis:
Tulsa allows 221 rushing yards per game. Over the course of the last four games, Keenan Reynolds has eight rushing touchdowns which is one of the highest in the nation for the quarterback position. Reynolds is one of the greatest quarterbacks that has ever played college football as he broke the rushing touchdown record last week. Over the last four weeks, Reynolds has eight rushing touchdowns and has gone over 100 yards rushing in two of those four games.
Recommendation:
Keenan Reynolds has the highest ceiling of this slate and is one of the top plays on the slate. His floor is not as high as Luke Falk, but Reynolds is one of those players that can single handedly win you a contest if your opponent does not have him.
Tulsa
Team Expected Points- 27.5
RB- Ramadi Warren- $4,800
Analysis:
This is entirely dependent on Zack Langer being out for this game. If Langer is playing, we do not like anyone on this offense. Warren over the last three games with Langer out is averaging 16 carries per game and 9.5 yards per carry. The matchup is a tough one as Navy is only allowing 136 yards rushing per game, but Tulsa is committed to the run and Warren has shown great value over the last two games having scored five touchdowns in the alst two games.
Recommendation:
If Langer is confirmed to be out, Warren is one of the top punt plays on this slate, as even though the matchup is tough getting a running back who will have 20 carries at $4,800 is a tremendous value.
Tennessee vs Missouri
Kickoff: 7:15PM EST
Spread: Tennessee -7
O/U: 42.5
Missouri has a top 10 defense and a bottom ten offense. This is going to be a very slow paced game, and there are better options this week.
Boston College vs Notre Dame
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -15.5
O/U: 45
We are recommending avoiding this game as while Notre Dame is a big favorite, Boston College has one of the premiere defenses in the country. They are the number one defense in terms of yardage allowed, and with how many great options are on this slate, we recommend not starting anyone from this game.
Baylor At Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: Baylor -3
O/U: 76
Baylor
Team Expected Points- 38
QB- Jarrett Stidham- $7,100
Analysis:
We still aren’t sold on Jarrett Stidham as a great talent for this year, but Oklahoma State has one of the worst matchup adjusted pass defense in college football. They allowed 480 yards and five touchdowns to Texas Tech, and 445 yards to TCU. Baylor is going to have to throw the ball a significant number of times in order to keep up with Oklahoma State.
Recommendation:
While Stidham isn’t our favorite option on this slate, he makes for a nice cheap option if you do not want to spend up for Mayfield as your second quarterback on this slate.
WR- Corey Coleman- $7,600
Analysis:
Corey Coleman had an awful game last week against a good Oklahoma pass defense. He only had three receptions for 51 yards, which snapped his eight game touchdown streak on the season. The good news is that he faces one of the worst matchup adjusted pass defenses in college football. This is a prime matchup for Coleman, and his price has dropped enough where he can be in consideration.
Recommendation:
Coleman is the top wide receiver for both cash games and GPP’s this week. While he is not cheap, he is still at a discount and is highly recommended this week.
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points- 38
WR- Marcell Ateman/ James Washington $4,400/$6,300
Analysis:
This game is projected to be a shootout, and we love the passing game of Oklahoma State. Last week Marcell Ateman had eight receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown. While Washington had a down week last week, in the previous three weeks he was the best wide receiver in college football as he had 487 yards and six touchdowns. Both wide receivers are great options this week as Baylor has not played a lot of great passing offenses, but their matchup adjusted pass defense is poor.
Recommendation:
Marcell Ateman is a good cash game play and should be in consideration for GPP’s due to his touchdown upside. Washington is one of the best GPP plays of the week as prior to last game he was over 100 yards in three straight games with six touchdowns in those three games. If you’re in a GPP running a game stack with Stidham, Rudolph, Ateman, Washington, and Coleman is not out of the question.
Texas A&M At Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: Texas A&M -7
O/U: 41.5
Texas A&M
Team Expected Points- 24
RB- Tra Carson- $5,000
Analysis:
Tra Carson has benefitted tremendously since Kyler Murray has taken over at the quarterback position. In the three games that Kyler has started, Carson has had over 100 yards in each of those three games this season. His total number of carries has increased to twenty carries per game over his last three games which makes Carson very interesting for this slate. The matchup is a tough one as Vanderbilt is only allowing 124 yards rushing per game, but Vanderbilt has not faced a team that has ran the ball as well as Texas A&M over the last few games with the exception of Houston which had 150 yards rushing total in the game.
Recommendation:
The matchup is a tough one, and for that we are recommending that Carson is a GPP play only as Vanderbilt has one of the top defenses in the country and there are better ways to pay up for a running back than going with Carson this week.
Vanderbilt
Team Expect Points- 17.5
RB- Ralph Webb- $4,400
Analysis:
Ralph Webb is a situation where the price has not caught up to the value that he has had over the last three game. Over the last four games the volume he is seeing is some of the highest in the country as he has 107 carries in four games. Texas A&M has one of the worst run defenses in college football as they’re allowing 210 yards per game rushing which is 112th in college football.
Recommendation:
Webb is a great cash game play, but should not be considered in GPP’s due to his inability to exceed 115 yards and exceed the ability to score multiple touchdowns.
TCU At Oklahoma
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: N/A
O/U: N/A
TCU
Team Expected Points: N/A
This offense is entirely dependent on the health status of Trevone Boykin. If he does not play, we do not want anyone from this offense, as we saw last week what a disaster of an offense it is without him. If he plays, Shaun Nixon becomes a tremendous cash game play as he now has 16 receptions over his last two games for 224 yards and a touchdown. Oklahoma’s defense is strong, so be cautious even if Boykin is playing we would not be going heavy in this offense.
EDIT- It appears Trevone Boykin is unlikely to play.
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points- N/A
QB- Baker Mayfield- $8,400
Analysis:
Baker Mayfield has been a better real life quarterback this season than a fantasy quarterback. For most quarterbacks that get this label it means they aren’t relevant in the fantasy game. This is hardly the case for Mayfield as he has been a great fantasy quarterback, but due to the running game and the blowout potential he doesn’t see as much volume at times as other quarterbacks. He is only averaging throwing the ball 31 times per game which is not what you typically see from a quarterback who is going to cost $8,400, however he has been incredibly efficient as he has a completion percentage of 70.2% with a 10.0 YPA. When you matchup adjust TCU’s pass defense they are one of the worst in the Big 12, as while they haven’t faced too many great quarterbacks, the three best quarterback that they have faced have all gone over 300 yards.
Recommendation:
This one is going to be dependent on Boykin’s health. If Boykin is playing, we recommend Mayfield as a cash game play, but if he is out it is going to be hard to start Mayfield in cash as starting a quarterback in a blowout with a strong running game is something that we do not love. He would be a GPP play only if Boykin is unable to go.
RB- Samaje Perine/Joe Mixon- $6,800/$5,200
Analysis:
With Boykin’s health up in the air, we have a hard time recommending anyone from Oklahoma as this game could turn into a blowout pretty quickly. Without Boykin we do not expect TCU to stay competitive. This opens up opportunity for Perine and Mixon. As bad as TCU’s defense has been against the pass, they have been equally as bad against the run. TCU is averaging allowing 158 yards rushing per game which they have not faced a team that has the running backs that are as talented as the two headed group of Perine/Mixon. The only quality running back they have faced had 188 yards and four touchdowns which opens up some great opportunities for Perine and Mixon.
Recommendation:
Both of these plays are GPP plays only, as they are game script dependent. If Boykin is out, Oklahoma may just lean on the run as they will not need to throw the ball to beat the TCU team.
Tulane At SMU
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: SMU -3
O/U: 56
Tulane
Team Expected Points- 27.5
RB- Dontrell Hilliard- $4,100
Analysis:
Dontrell Hilliard is finally emerging at Tulane as a running back that is getting the most carries. The carries have still been inconsistent based on the teams that Tulane has faced, but he has gone over 90 yards in two of his last three games. Fortunately for Tulane and Hilliard, SMU is 126th in run defense allowing 273.9 yards per game. Hilliard is likely going to get 15-20 carries in this game which should give him plenty of opportunity to reach 100 yards rushing.
Recommendation:
Hilliard makes for a great punt play this week what should be a run heavy offense this week for Tulane. He can be safely used in your cash and GPP games.
SMU
Team Expected Points- 37.5
RB- Xavier Jones- $3,900
Analysis:
Xavier Jones is a dual threat running back which is great for DraftKings as the receptions can add up rather quickly and can make up for not getting 20 carries per game. So far this season, Jones is averaging 12.5 carries and 2.5 receptions per game, but a lot of the minimal workload has been due to a game script that has SMU down early in the game and having to abandon the run. This shouldn’t be the case this week as they’re a favorite at home against Tulane. If Tulane’s defense has a weakness it would be their run game as they have allowed 178 yards per game which while we don’t expect SMU to get to that total unless Matt Davis runs for yardage, it will still be a great opportunity for Jones to exceed 100 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation:
Jones is a great play this week at his price and is both a cash game and GPP play, as he has a chance at a two touchdown game which would easily exceed his $3,900 salary.
Cal At Stanford
Kickoff: 10:30PM EST
Spread: Stanford -11
O/U: 63
Cal
Team Expected Points- 26
This is the most difficult matchup Cal will have all season, as Stanford has one of the best matchup adjusted defenses in the country. We will be looking elsewhere in this game, as Cal does not have that one reliable player as they tend to spread the ball around with their wide receivers and have a running back by committee approach.
Stanford
Team Expected Points- 37
RB- Christian McCaffrey- $8,300
Analysis:
Christian McCaffrey is one of the safest players in college football due to his dual threat versatility. McCaffrey has exceeded 150 total yards in seven of his last eight games and while the touchdowns are still rather sporadic, he makes up for that with his pass catching ability as over the last four games he is averaging 4.25 receptions per game. The matchup is a tremendous one as Cal has allowed 199 yards rushing per game, there should be plenty of opportunities in this rivalry for McCaffrey to exceed 150 yards and potentially exceed 200 yards.
Recommendation:
He is expensive, but he is one of the safest running backs on this slate due to his week to week consistency that he has shown in the passing game. We don’t love him for GPP’s only because his touchdowns can be inconsistent at times, and his ownership will be rather high.
San Diego State At UNLV
Kickoff: 10:30PM EST
Spread: San Diego State -16
O/U: 53
San Diego State
Team Expected Points- 35
RB- Donnell Pumphrey- $7,900
Analysis:
Another great running back on this slate in a tremendous matchup. Donnell Pumphrey has gone over 100 yards in each of his last six games and has had 11 touchdowns in those six games. He has had 24 carries per game which makes him very safe for this slate. UNLV is allowing 202 yards rushing per game which is 107th in the nation which should Pumphrey should be asked to exploit this matchup and should not have a problem exploiting it.
Recommendation:
Pumphrey grades out as our top running back on this slate, due to his touchdown ability and volume compared to Collins or McCaffrey. He is a great GPP and cash game play.
UNLV
Team Expected Points- 18
We do not expect this game to be close, and expect UNLV to run the ball 30-40 times this game which should slow down the game. San Diego State has the number 9 overall defense allowing 17.1 points per game. This is not a great matchup for UNLV this week.
Colorado At Washington State
Kickoff: 10:45PM EST
Spread: Washington State -14
O/U: 61
Colorado
Team Expected Points- 23.5
QB- Cade Apsay- $5,400
Analysis:
Apsay was tremendous last week filling in for Sefo Liufau when he went down with an injury. Apsay was 18-23 for 128 yards and two touchdowns. While he is not the most talented quarterback, in a high scoring game he will be asked to do a lot this week. The matchup is not ideal as Washington State has one of the best pass defenses in the Pac-12, but Apsay is going to have to throw the ball 30-35 times just to keep up with the high powered Washington State offense.
Recommendation:
Apsay is a punt play as all you’re going to be hoping for is 250 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. At $5,400 he is a cheap option and allows you to spend up and get one of the top end running backs.
Washington State
Team Expected Points- 37.5
QB- Luke Falk- $8,300
Analysis-
Luke Falk has been the most consistent quarterback in college football this season as he has thrown for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in every game this season except for the season opener in which he got hurt. Colorado has been much worse defensively on the road than at home, so this should be a great opportunity for Falk to throw for 400 yards and multiple touchdowns.
Recommendation:
Falk is our favorite cash game play of the day as his floor is the highest of any quarterback. He is a guarantee to get the three point bonus on DraftKings and should throw for at least 2-3 touchdowns with upside of five touchdowns.
San Jose State At Hawaii
Kickoff: 11:00PM EST
Spread: San Jose State -10
O/U: 53
San Jose State
Team Expected Points- 31.5
RB- Tyler Ervin- $8,400
Analysis:
Tyler Ervin early on in this season was one of the top running backs in the country, but it appears that he is starting to wear down as he is only 5’10’’ 177 pounds. Over the last five games he has only gone over 100 yards once although it was a 266 yard performance against New Mexico. Outside of that game his highest rushing yardage game was 80 yards. His matchup is a great one as Hawaii is allowing 253 yards per game rushing which is 121st in the nation. This is the best matchup that Ervin will have all season, and he has two games over 250 yards rushing so his upside is tremendous, but his floor is the concern.
Recommendation:
Tyler Ervin is a GPP play only as he has struggled tremendously over the last four of five weeks. The matchup is a tremendous one, but the concern is whether Ervin is healthy and if he is why he is struggling so much. His price should have people off of him this week, and he does pose great upside for a GPP.
Hawaii
Team Expected Points- 21.5
RB- Paul Harris- $5,800
Analysis-
Paul Harris over the last two games has had 316 yards rushing and he is in another great matchup as San Jose State is allowing 207 yards rushing per game. Harris has benefitted greatly due to his previous two matchups and is not as talented as the stats say, but he should still be in a good spot one more week as this matchup is a great one.
Recommendation:
At $5,800 his price is starting to climb, but Harris is in a tremendous matchup this week. He is going to be hard to fit in due to the mid-range price tag in cash games, but if you’re able to fit him in he should be able to continue his 100+ yard streak.
