As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce projections for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab and others I wanted to avoid.
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
This is Part 2 of a 4 Part Series.
The Denver RBs (Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno), Den/9 - It's a mess for sure and as much as I love the Denver offense this season, I am not in love with this trio of backs at all. Montee Ball is the best runner, but it's doubtful the team will trust him to protect Manning in obvious passing situations. Hillman is under-sized to be a bell cow and is struggling with securing the ball. Moreno is the best all-around back, but he isn't excellent at anything. I suspect this madness to last all year and none of these guys to be worth owning. Let some other sucker mess with this.
RB Joique Bell, Det/9 - He is the real handcuff and backup to Reggie Bush. Mikel Leshoure averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and just 6.3 yards per catch last season as he battled a ton of injuries. Bell averaged 5.0 and 9.3 respectfully. Talent always wins out and Bell is a better player than the higher drafted Leshoure by a good bit. He is just a Reggie Bush injury away from having a big role in an exciting Detroit offense.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind/8 - There is no doubt that Bradshaw is the most talented back on the roster, but the fact that he never practices at all has to be alarming to anyone considering owning him. He did not practice with the Giants either (walking boot on Monday through Friday most weeks and then played). The difference here is that he had a body of work to fall back on in games that the Giant's management trusted. I am not so sure the Colts will give him nearly as much leeway. Vick Ballard might be a worse runner, but if he is working his butt off everyday in practice, Bradshaw could have a short leash with his no practice, but still start routine. Bradshaw is a high risk / high reward play. The danger is him getting benched because of his chronic injuries.
RB Reggie Bush, Det/9 - Yes he looks electric this preseason and this offense was made for him...BUT...I am not feeling it with this Detroit team. Stafford looks awful. The defense is really bad in coverage again which could lead to another year where the team must abandon the run. And Bush's ADP has skyrocketed (especially in PPR leagues). Last year all the Detroit backs combined for just 339 rushing attempts. The year before that was even worse with just 318 rushing attempts from the running backs. I am steering clear of Reggie Bush this season. Too many red flags at his current ADP.
RB Jamaal Charles, KC/10 - His yards per carry dipped with a full-time workload, but he still managed 5.3 yards per attempt in 2012. New coach Andy Reid always involves his backs in the passing game too so his dismal 36 receptions last season should nearly double this year. The Chiefs have hinted that they plan on going uptempo a lot this season and that should also bode well for Charles. He appears primed for a huge season.
RB Knile Davis, KC/10 - Here is a flier I like very cheaply late in drafts. Injuries decimated his college career, but he did manage 1,322 rushing yards and 13 TDs as a Sophmore for Arkansas playing in the mighty SEC. He is just a Jamal Charles injury from significant playing time in a very run-friendly offense.
RB Arian Foster, Hou/8 - His yards per carry have slid from 5.0 to 4.4 to 4.0 over the last three seasons. He has maintained his elite status mostly as a compiler as of late rushing a ridiculous 351 times in 2012. Those carries seem to be catching up with him as he has struggled to get healthy all offseason. The team promises he will be ready for the opener, but I think it's a given that he is going to split carries with Ben Tate a lot more than usual. When Tate was healthy (in 2011), Foster had just 278 carries. I suspect Foster won't even get that many this season.
RB Frank Gore, SF/9 - The fantasy world wants to write him off. He is old. We all saw Michael Turner fall off that RB cliff, so Gore has to be next. Except my eyes tell me a completely different story. Michael Turner was fat and slow at the end. Gore is ripped and finishing runs with power. In my opinion, this isn't the year that Gore's wheels fall off. He also gets the luxury of playing for one of the most dominant lines in the game. His backup (Kendall Hunter) also has skills, but Gore is going to get the lion's share of the carries as long as he stays healthy.
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin/12 - He looks like someone running in molasses to me. The fact that the Patriots moved on from him despite never fumbling tells the full story. He is a plodder with no upside. He might hold off the talented rookie for some of the season (because of blitz pickups), but it's just a matter of time before Giovani Bernard is the full-time running back with the Bengals.
RB Roy Helu, Was/5 - Here is another favorite of mine flying way below the radar. He has run away with the RB2 job behind Alfred Morris and will play on passing downs. If Morris were to go down, Helu could vault to a top 12 back.
RB Kendall Hunter, SF/9 - This is the real backup to Frank Gore (LaMichael James is fool's gold at best). A torn Achilles in 2012 has Hunter flying way below the radar this season, but if the preseason is any indication then he is fully back. Despite limited reps last year, he did manage to produce at 5.2 yards per carry and score 2 TDs.
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ/10 - The plodder Shonn Greene finished as the 15 best RB last season in New York running behind this above average offensive line. Chris Ivory passes the eye test for me as someone WAY FASTER than Shonn Greene. Can he stay healthy? That is the million dollar question. But at his low ADP, I am a big buyer here. Somebody has to be worth rostering in New York, right?
RB Steven Jackson, Atl/6 - Jackson has not topped 6 combined TDs in any of his last 4 seasons. He likely is an improvement over a broken down and overweight Michael Turner, but who isn't. The Falcons have a suspect OL and a very good receiving back in Jacquizz Rodgers. I don't see a big enough role for this 30 year old back to justify his lofty ADP.
RB Chris Johnson, Ten/8 - The telling stat on Chris Johnson for me is this one: He averaged 8.7 fantasy points (FBG scoring) in team losses and 16.0 FP in wins in 2012. He posted similar deltas in 2011 (7.6 FP in losses / 13.0 in wins) and 2010 (11.0 FP in losses / 20.5 FP in wins). Vegas has the Titans at 6.5 wins. If his ratios hold true, this could be another disappointing season for fantasy owners spending a 2nd round pick on Chris Johnson.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac/9 - The guy everybody loves to bet against looks ready to prove everyone wrong again. His ADP makes him attractive. The Jaguars have little else to push MJD so he should be in line for a whole lot of carries again this season.
RB Eddie Lacy, GB/4 - I am not sold that this guy is ready to set the league on fire. First he was suppose to be the first RB taken in the NFL draft yet was the fourth back actually selected. He stands atop of Green Bay's RB depth chart, but mostly due to the other players underwhelming (or getting hurt). Green Bay running backs have averaged just 343 rushes a year over the last three seasons. That's less carries than Arian Foster got himself last season. Let someone else reach for Lacy. He looks way overpriced for my liking.
RB Mikel Leshoure, Det/9 - He is way behind the more talented Joique Bell on the RB depth chart to back up Reggie Bush. With Detroit logging under 350 attempts for running backs in each of the last three seasons, I find little to get excited about in Leshoure.
RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea/12 - Although "Beast Mode" is still playing well, I think this will be his last season in Seattle. The Seahawks have spent early picks for backs the last two years and both Christine Michael and Robert Turbin look ready to be big contributors in the NFL right now. And although Lynch stayed healthy and played a full season, this was the first of his seven seasons where Lynch played all 16 games. If a crack opens, his talented backups could significantly cut into his workload.
RB Doug Martin, TB/5 - STUD. Awesome Offensive Line. Nothing, but love from me. I don't understand any of the criticism around him at all. He can do it all and is getting better.
RB Ryan Mathews, SD/8 - Sometimes the pendulum swings too far and I believe that is the case this year with regards to Mathews. Last year he was deemed a 1st round pick in fantasy drafts based on his explosive 2011 season. Now after the most disappointing injury-riddled season imaginable, Mathews is now horrible? He defines value this season and is a great buy-low candidate that could greatly exceed his draft position if everything falls right.
RB LeSean McCoy, Phi/12 - HC Chip Kelly ran the ball nearly twice as much as he threw it in the uptempo attack he ran in Oregon. If the preseason is to believed, I suspect Kelly plans on something similar in the NFL. McCoy could be in a situation where his carries and touches are way understated by all of us projectors.
RB Darren McFadden, Oak/7 - In his most durable season, he missed 3 games. He is immensely talented, but has no history of ever holding up for a full season. Playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and on a team projected for very few wins, I doubt this is the year he breaks through and stays healthy.
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Ari/9 - Just say No. He will disappoint just as all Arizona RBs have for the last decade plus.
RB Christine Michael, Sea/12 - It's hard not to get excited about what this player brings to the table even as a rookie. He is a great fit to run behind this talented offensive line in Seattle. If Lynch were to miss time, Michael would likely be a top 10 RB the rest of the way (and possibly a lot better than this). When taking late shots at RB, this is exactly the kind of player you should be targeting.
RB Lamar Miller, Mia/6 - Don't believe the hype that he is in a timeshare with Daniel Thomas. Thomas is awful. That was a ploy (and a bad bluff by the team at that) to likely try and motivate Miller. I like Miller at his ADP mainly because of how bad Thomas is as his backup.
RB Alfred Morris, Was/5 - He surprised all of us in 2012. He seems correctly priced as a stud who likely won't catch many passes.
RB Demarco Murray, Dal/11 - I often select Murray because he has shown enough skill that he could massively over-perform his ADP IF he can just stay healthy. I generally am not a big fan of handcuffing players, but you usually can get Lance Dunbar in the last rounds of your draft. With DeMarco's injury history, I like the Dunbar handcuff late as a very cheap hedge.
RB Bernard Pierce, Bal/8 - Probably the most talented backup in the league. He is this year's CJ Spiller (talented backup with a decent size role already). If Rice were to go down, Pierce could vault to a top 5 RB.
RB Daryl Richardson, StL/11 - He was better than Steven Jackson last year. He beat out all the young kids this year. Yet despite these things, fantasy players are not sold on him? Don't be that guy. He is the best RB on a revamped St. Louis team that could utilize his skills a lot in 2013. He is a solid value pick this year.
RB Stevan Ridley, NE/10 - I suspect the Patriots are going to run a lot more this season than in previous years. The Patriots have a solid OL and Ridley has looked sharp this offseason after adding muscle.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl/6 - Despite everyone saying all the right things about Steven Jackson, I am not a buyer. Jackson is old for RB standards (30) and has taken a lot of punishment. I see a bigger role for the talented Rodgers this year.
RB Zac Stacy, StL/11 - The talented rookie is log-jammed at the moment behind Richardson and Pead. I don't believe he is going to get enough rushing attempts this season to justify drafting him at any price.
RB Shane Vereen, NE/10 - He is the most likely guy to fill the void left by TE Aaron Hernandez. I sense the Patriots will move Vereen all over the formation in hopes to get him isolated in space.
RB Deangelo Williams, Car/4 - This has more to do with Jonathan Stewart unable to get healthy over any thing else. Stewart's timetable for recovery continues to slide on his chronically bad ankles. Let someone else wait for Stewart to try and get back on the field. DeAngelo is getting all the 1st team reps and will have the opportunity to smash his current ADP when Stewart fails to secure any significant time.
RB David Wilson, NYG/9 - I already was drafting him often BEFORE Andre Brown went down. You can't teach speed. Wilson has a HUGE UPSIDE over his fast-rising ADP.