Photo: Noah K. Murray, USA Today Sports

As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce projections for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab and others I wanted to avoid.

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.

This is Part 1 of a 4 Part Series. All 4 parts will be completed by the close of business August 30th

QB Strategy - I rarely take QBs early anyway, but this year the strategy is gift-wrapped for you. Just take the 11th or 12th quarterback off the board a full 10-20 picks after the 10th QB gets selected (in 12 team leagues). No owner is going to be in a rush to get his backups which makes the solution easy to execute. If somehow a run of QBs does happen vaulting you lower, just wait it out even longer. There are lots of quality options in the middle to late rounds that could produce nicely in a committee approach.

QB Sam Bradford, StL/11 - Everyone's favorite sleeper it seems, but I am not so sure. Yes they added weapons in the offseason, but are they really all that much improved? TE Jared Cook is an upgrade, but losing RB Steven Jackson hurts. He faces a brutal fantasy close (bye in week 11, Chicago in week 12, and at San Francisco in week 13). I am not a buyer near his current ADP.

QB Tom Brady, NE/10 - I don't care that the team lost all of it's WRs this offseason...that he is 36 years old...that the team looks like it can maul teams with their RBs and dominant offensive line play...that the Patriots have improved their defense enough to not have to be involved in shootouts...that the Patriots play in a horrible division where wins should be easy. Wait! Maybe I do care about those things. No one will be shocked if he tumbles from the lofty standard we all hold him to. But betting against Tom Brady having a good to great season, is also pretty silly. It has to happen eventually I suppose, but if the first few games this preseason are any indication, I suspect that falloff does not happen this season.

QB Jay Cutler, Chi/8 - I am not sure when I came to hate Jay Cutler as a player, but it's among my worst biases. Perhaps it was all the stories in Denver of him getting sloshed before they moved him? Perhaps it was waiting a round too late in my high stakes team last year and taking him as the best available QB. I won't be drafting him, but it's not necessarily logically based.

QB Josh Freeman, TB/5 - I am often accused of being the sole member of the Freeman fan club as he usually gets reccommended as a value pick in my Perfect Draft articles due to his low ADP. This year is no exception and it's hard not to like Freeman as a fantasy option this year as well. He is locked in as the starter and has AWESOME weapons including a RB that can make things happen on screen passes. His offensive line is also way above average. The problem with Freeman is that he is wildly erratic at best and a really bad QB at worst. With so many other options at QB this year, I might not even be tempted to get him at his always low ADP.

QB Robert Griffin III III, Was/5 - There are people in this world you should not bet against. Griffin passed all of the eye tests for me LAST preseason and I was among his early cheerleaders in drafts last season. He responded with exactly the kind of season I felt he was capable of. And then he gets HURT BAD. A devastating injury that should limit him considerably based on all of our knowledge of athletes and known recovery times. But I can't bet against him. Without him playing in the preseason I don't have much to go on: The ESPN piece showing him working out. His calm/cool interviews. The rave reviews from Doctor Andrews and people watching at training camp. It's a limited body of information for sure, but you don't bet against athletes like RG3. Don't be shocked when he resumes his dominant ways early this season.

QB Colin Kaepernick, SF/9 - I should care that the 49ers lost their best WR in Michael Crabtree for most of the year. I should care that their 2012 1st round pick AJ Jenkins was traded for a 1/2 a gallon of gas. I suppose I should also be worried that Mario Manningham might not be ready for 6+ weeks. All of those things have to lower the stock of Kaepernick, right? I am not so sure. He looks so much faster than every other player on the field. He finds open guys. He is electric with his legs. Here is another guy that I refuse to bet against. I don't care who plays WR for him. I think he will make them good enough on his own.

QB Andrew Luck, Ind/8 - He rarely gets mentioned with the "running quarterbacks", but he managed 5 rushing TDs on 62 attempts in 2012. His ADP screams fair value to me though in a year with lots of values at the position. I likely won't be rostering him on many squads this year, but he remains one of the safest picks at the position.

QB Peyton Manning, Den/9 - The Broncos have put together a great passing offense with the addition of Wes Welker. Welker might be on the wrong side of the age curve (He is 32 years old), but he has enough left that his addition should make this offense the one to fear in the AFC. Despite Peyton's age (37 years old), I wouldn't bet against this many offensive weapons. About the only thing that could hold Manning back would be the ease at which they are going to be able to destroy certain opponents. In those situations, Manning might just manage the game from the 2nd half on holding down his fantasy value.

QB E.J. Manuel, Buf/12 - He is the definition of low-risk, high upside. His battle with Kolb fizzled out when Kolb suffered likely a career-ending concussion. His injury status may derail him from playing in week 1, but he is the unquestioned starter on a team that will be playing from behind often.

QB Carson Palmer, Ari/9 - Arizona Quarterbacks were sacked 58 times in 2012. So adding an immobile Carson Palmer to this equation does not get me excited at all. I don't get the hype at all for this 34-year old player.

QB Terrelle Pryor, Oak/7 - Flying way below the radar all preseason, the Raiders now know what a lot of us suspected. That Matt Flynn is not very good and has a weak arm. You want the ultimate BUY-LOW gamble at QB? Take a shot with Pryor here. The Raiders are going to be AWFUL...as in they might now win a single game this season bad. But garbage stats count the same in fantasy football and Pryor is going to get lots of chances to put up stats as the team plays from behind often. Add in his ability to run the ball and Pryor is flying way below the radar. Grab him while you can for pennies on the dollar before the season starts.

QB Philip Rivers, SD/8 - Playing behind one of the worst OLs this season, I expect Rivers to struggle again this year. He has already lost WR Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd is less than 100% as well. About the only redeeming piece regarding Rivers is how bad this team is. They will likely playing from behind in most games and be forced into throwing the ball a lot trying to catch up.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB/4 - I project Aaron Rodgers as the #1 QB, but he is far off my drafting radar in 2013. First, there are too many cheaper options at the position for me to even consider spending a 2nd or 3rd to get Rodgers in most leagues. The other troublesome piece that could derail Rodgers in 2013 is the team starts with a BRUTAL schedule. They draw @SF in week 1, @Cin in week 3 and then have a bye in week 4. If you want Aaron Rodgers on your team, trade for him after week 4 as he should get right in a big way against Detroit in week 5. Green Bay also faces a tough Pittsbugh matchup when it counts the most (in week 16 of your fantasy championship). Suffice it to say, drafting Aaron Rodgers (and his brutal early and late scedule) could practically guarantee you not winning your league this year.

QB Tony Romo, Dal/11 - Tony Romo might be the most under-appreciated QB to ever throw for over 4,900 yards in a season. He has banked 334 or more fantasy points (Footballguys scoring) in three of the last four seasons. Not surprisingly, the only year he failed to get those fantasy points was in 2010 when he only played 6 games. If he stays upright, he is a lock to outperform his ADP despite his "choker" status. The fact that you can get him a good 5 rounds later than the top QBs screams massive value to me.

QB Alex Smith, KC/10 - He draws an early schedule that is among the best I have ever seen (@Jac, vs Dal, @Phi, vs NYG, @Ten, vs Oak). Even if you expect him to finish the season as the 20th best QB, he should be way better than that in these opening weeks. He also finishes against cupcakes Oakland and Indianapolis for your fantasy playoffs in weeks 15 and 16. You can get him as an after-thought, but he should produce way above his ADP.

QB Matt Stafford, Det/9 - He may have Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, but he does not pass the eye test for me. He has bad mechanics, forces the ball in coverage, and generally makes errors that he should not at this level. I will bet against the field and the stud that is Calvin Johnson and say that Matt Stafford finds a way to under-perform his draft position.

QB Ryan Tannehill, Mia/6 - He is not a sexy pick, but faces absolutely zero competition in Miami as the unquestioned starter. He ranked 24th among QBs despite scoring just 12 TDs in his rookie season. He might have 12 TDs by the midway point this season.

QB Michael Vick, Phi/12 - You want to go down as a legend in your league? Draft Michael Vick and Terrell Pryor super late after stockpiling tons of RB/WR/TE talent. Roll out Vick in week 1 and be the benefactor of Chip Kelly's uptempo offense. Make no mistake about it. Vick is the perfect fit for what Philadelphia wants to do. And the Eagles defense looks so bad that Vick is going to get a great opportunity to pad his passing and rusing stats in the first three weeks of the season against middle-of-the road defenses (WAS, SD and KC). At age 32 though, I fully expect Michael Vick to break down. If he was a running back playing at this age, we would already have buried him. Just like it seems to do every year, I fully expect Vick to get smashed to the turf and miss lots of games. Back to that legend thing. Roll with Vick for weeks 1-3. If he succeeds (and he should), trade him high. Those same middling defenses will now be faced by Terrell Pryor who should be able to see things on film that Vick exploited and do similar things (with a similar skill set that includes freelance running). Draft Low, trade high and engrave the trophy (Note*** - Not a strategy for the timid at heart).

QB Brandon Weeden, Cle/10 - Norv Turner has turned many "average" quarterbacks to producers on Sundays and this could easily be another situation just like that. The Browns have a solid offensive line and young talent at wide receiver.

QB Russell Wilson, Sea/12 - The Seahawks are built to run, run, and then run some more. Even Russell Wilson has the skills to run if needed. So it would be easy to think Russell Wilson won't be special on Sundays as he keeps handing off. But as good as the Seahawks run, they do an even better job with the play-action fake. And that's where Wilson could do some serious damage against some teams this year.