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The Footballguys Staff discuss whether to spend for elite RBs and elite QBs, the bargain RBs to target in Week 7, the must-own WRs for Week 7, the best QB-WR combination for this week's tournaments and which under-the-radar player they predict will have a huge Week 7 performance.
1. Demarco Murray and Matt Forte have been consistently putting up huge numbers but they are now getting really expensive. Is it still worth paying the high price and trying to find bargains elsewhere?
Matt Harmon: My general daily philosophy revolves around coughing up cash for pass catchers. But I still like paying up for one stud running back, and trusting I can find a bargain for the second spot. Murray and Forte are the obvious, and safest targets in that vein.
Will Grant: Of the two, I think Matt Forte is the smarter play. The Bears use him in both rushing and passing opportunities and he's shown strong durability over the last few years. The one drawback is that he's had a hard time finding the end zone until last week. The Bears have some great receiving options, and even deep in the red zone, passing to Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery or Martellus Bennett is an option for Jay Cutler. Forte isn't going to have many multiple TD games this season, and if you're looking for him to top out his performance, you should probably avoid his higher pricetag.
Dan Hindery: I think you can afford one of them as long as you feel confident in at least two other lower priced players at other positions. Both guys are on such a hot streak that finding a way to fit one of them into your budget should increase your potential score and give you some certainty at the RB position. The Miami defense has been stout while the Giants were gashed by LeSean McCoy last week, so I would lean towards DeMarco Murray as the top RB this week.
Jeff Pasquino: Depends on the format. In cash games (50/50, head to head, 2x) I would spend for stud RBs, especially in good matchups and with them getting high floors for production, but in GPP contests I might look for at least one RB with a big upside that could perform at 3x or better their price.
Maurile Tremblay: I actually think DeMarco Murray is a great value this week at FanDuel, and Matt Forte is a decent value as well (though I like Arian Foster a bit better for the price). You can't use up your entire salary cap without paying for a few studs, and Murray and Forte are about as studly as they come right now. You do have to be aware of alternatives, though. At DraftKings, for example, Jamaal Charles is nearly $3,000 cheaper than Murray ($9,600 to $6,700), which to me makes Charles more attractive.
Chad Parsons: I usually roster at least one 'stud' RB in lineups on a weekly basis. Have not been a high-ownership player for Murray, but have liked Forte with his high passing game usage and TD regression chances in the past couple of weeks. In general, I like to target high-floor backs coming off a down game or two with a top matchup for the current week.
2. Which 1 or 2 RBs outside of the top 12 most expensive do you see as good targets this week? (Some possible candidates include: Ben Tate, Frank Gore, Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Joique Bell, Eddie Lacy, and Ronnie Hillman.)
Justin Bonnema: The three names that jump to the top of the list are Ben Tate, Justin Forsett and Andre Ellington. All three have good-to-great matchups and all three are enjoying plenty of usage. Ownership will be high for these guys but it’s hard to ignore their value.
Maurile Tremblay: It's different at every site based on price. At FanDuel, I like Justin Forsett, Shane Vereen, Ahmad Bradshaw, Branden Oliver, Jerick McKinnon, and Andre Williams. At DraftKings, I like Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Williams, Jerick McKinnon, Lamar Miller, and Darren McFadden (with Forsett and Oliver being decent options there as well).
Matt Harmon: Ben Tate is an easy call. He is the lead back in a great run offense. The Browns might run the ball better than anyone else, and they face Jacksonville this week. Does it get any better than that? He’s a very safe running back option in daily leagues, and is always at a reasonable price.
Joique Bell draws a very favorable matchup against the Saints, who are traveling to Detroit. Reggie Bush might be back, but Bell should remain the lead back this week.
Jeff Pasquino: Joique Bell is a great target at DraftKings and other full PPR sites. Ben Tate has a great matchup against Jacksonville. Justin Forsett is one of only a few RBs that has produced 10+ fantasy points in PPR every single week, and I love that kind of floor. Against Atlanta? That's awesome. Those are my Top 3 from this list out of the gate. I don't like Hillman against SF, especially with Manning looking for the QB TD record (he needs three to get to 509, not that the record even matters to anyone). NBC is going to hype that record for ratings, but who really cares.
Chad Parsons: Justin Forsett is a nice option. Fred Jackson and Jerick McKinnon are another couple I prefer at this stage.
3. In GPPs, our very own David Dodds has had a lot of success stacking a team’s WR2 with its starting QB as the production of the two positions is highly correlated. Which QB-WR2 combination do you find most attractive this weekend for GPPs?
Justin Bonnema: Does Randall Cobb count as WR2? If so, then absolutely pair him with Rodgers. Same goes for Cutler/Jeffery. But in general I’m more inclined to stack QBs with their top tight end and their top wide receivers. Peyton Manning and company have proved this to be profitable week in, week out.
Jeff Pasquino: Great question. Are Mohamed Sanu and Golden Tate still WR2s? I love Odell Beckham Jr and Eli Manning to bounce back against Dallas, but that's a big gamble. I have to dig into Week 7 more to find good values, as I don't see many WR2s that bubble up to the surface for me right now.
Chad Parsons: Tempting the regression gods on this one, but Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith. Outstanding matchup against Atlanta.
Matt Harmon: I’ll be going right back to the Joe Flacco/Torrey Smith stack this week. The Ravens throttled the Bucs and their weak pass defense, and now draw a home game against Atlanta. The Falcons are almost just as porous a stop unit as their division rivals. Torrey Smith can get behind the Falcons secondary for a few big plays, like the ones we saw last week. Smith was always getting open this season, but Flacco just wasn’t looking his way. That trend seemed to reverse last week. I expect Flacco and both Smiths to come close to their stellar Week 6 performances. Their prices should still be quite nice.
Dan Hindery: I like Jeff's idea of Odell Beckham Jr and Eli Manning. While the Dallas defense has looked good in recent weeks, this is still far from a dominant unit. Beckham Jr.'s elite speed makes him a threat to take it the distance at any time and thus provides great upside for tournaments because one or two long touchdowns could put you in position to win a million dollars.
4. Which 1 or 2 WRs will be in most of your lineups this weekend? Why?
Jeff Pasquino: I'm targeting Roddy White, Andre Holmes and Marques Colston quite a bit this week.
Roddy White disappointed many DFS players (including me) last week, but Baltimore gives up a lot to wide receivers this year when it comes to catches (94) and yardage (1,229). That's the most yards to wide receivers and second-most receptions of any defense. The only reason the Ravens aren't the worst team against WRs is that they have only given up five scores. Throw in that the Ravens and Joe Flacco are hot after blistering the Buccaneers last week and I think that Roddy White should be a bargain at both FanDuel ($6,700) and DraftKings ($4,100).
Andre Holmes broke out last week for over 100 yards and two scores against San Diego, and he looked comfortable doing it. Oakland faces Arizona, a team that is usually a good defense but has given up 82 catches, 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns in just five games to wideouts this year - nearly 30 points per game (31st overall) for defense against wide receivers. Holmes is way cheaper at DraftKings ($4,800) than at FanDuel ($6,000), so I will likely use him more at DraftKings.
Marques Colston gets the ideal opportunity. He is the top target now for Drew Brees with Jimmy Graham out, is coming off of a bye week and faces the Lions - a team listed as the best defense against wide receivers so far, but they have played Carolina, the Bills, the Jets and Vikings - teams that have issues at QB, WR or both. Drew Brees is the only star QB outside of Aaron Rodgers that they have faced yet this year. I think Colston's floor is high enough and his price is low enough ($5,500 at FanDuel, $4,300 at DraftKings) to warrant a lineup spot in many of my lineups.
Justin Bonnema: Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are must plays this week in my opinion. I’ll be doubling down on my Rodgers/Nelson/Cobb stack recommendation from last week. Golden Tate is in for a big game but he will likely be 40 percent owned so his tournament value suffers a bit. All three of these guys play defenses that are allowing more points to wide receivers than all but a few other teams. Both games have a fantasy friendly over/under of 49 points.
Will Grant: Jordy Nelson has been on fire as of late. Although he had a bad week against Minnesota, Nelson had 4 games this year with nine or more receptions and he had five or more TDS in the last five games. He's rock solid at a wide receiver, and is worth the money he's going to cost. Golden Tate looks like another good option since it looks like Calvin Johnson will probably miss this week's contest again. Keep an eye on the situation to be sure, but Tate is a guy I'm going to pencil into my lineup this weekend.
Dan Hindery: The Green Bay pass catchers, especially Nelson, seem to be a popular choice. I am going to stick with that them but go with a guy nobody has mentioned in Davante Adams. Adams really emerged last week against Miami and looks to have finally developed a real rapport with Aaron Rodgers. While Nelson has been incredible, opposing defensive coordinators have to have noticed as well and he is likely to see double coverage all day. That should leave Adams with favorable matchups and a chance to greatly outperform his bargain price tag.
5. Call your shot: Which under the radar player has a surprisingly big Week 7?
Jeff Pasquino: Dallas is one of the worst defenses against tight ends, so I like Larry Donnell for the Giants this week, but the TE I am keying on right now is Jordan Reed. Tennessee has given up five touchdowns and 343 yards through six games to tight ends, and Reed had 11 targets last week. At FanDuel, Reed is only $5400, so I will target him. He's more expensive at DraftKings ($5,000), which is why you really need to compare notes at different players and costs at different sites. The bargain TE at DraftKings looks to be Jace Amaro ($3,300) this week against New England (if you play Thursday), but otherwise I would go with Jared Cook ($3,600) as Seattle is the worst team against tight ends this year, giving up seven touchdowns to tight ends already. Note at tight end I would think twice about Owen Daniels, who looks like a good value but Atlanta has been the best defense against TEs this year.
At RB, I first considered Jerick McKinnon, but Buffalo is actually pretty good against the run, and I don't trust RBs without a decent complimentary passing game. That's why my attention goes to Justin Forsett, who has a high floor and is relatively cheap (FanDuel $6,200, DraftKings $5,600). Atlanta is the worst team against RBs this year and Forsett is the top and most consistent Baltimore running back. The other back to consider is Andre Ellington, as Oakland cannot stop running backs this year at all. Ellington is cheaper at DraftKings ($6,500) than at FanDuel ($7,100), and I intend to use him at DraftKings much more as he is also worth more due to full PPR. That's why it is important to compare salaries and sites. Taking a cheaper back like Forsett also gives me more room to take a stud like DeMarco Murray at FanDuel, where his price of $9,400 is much cheaper than DraftKings ($9,600) on both a literal and a comparative basis (Murray is more than twice McKinnon and Ahmad Bradshaw at DraftKings, while most RBs are $6,000 or more at FanDuel).
Maurile Tremblay: I think Jared Cook is a breakout waiting to happen. I know he's been a tease for a long time, but he's getting plenty of targets this season, has at least four catches in every game, and is averaging 59 yards per game (sixth-best among tight ends). He's had some big plays called back due to penalties, and the Seahawks have not had success defending opposing tight ends this season.
Dan Hindery: I already mentioned Davante Adams as a player I like to have a big Week 7 and he will be in my lineup. Digging even deeper, I am going to go way out on a limb and predict that Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham has a big week. With A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert all injured, the Bengals pass catching corp has been demolished. Mohamed Sanu has been carrying most of the weight as Andy Dalton has continued to produce despite missing most of his top targets. Against Indianapolis, Sanu could find tough sledding against CB Vontae Davis. That will force Dalton to look elsewhere and Gresham should be a prime beneficiary. I like Gresham to pull in at least 6 receptions and a touchdown. With a dirt cheap price tag and a miniscule expected ownership rate, Gresham makes for a sneaky play with high upside in tournaments this week.
Justin Bonnema: I don’t know how under the radar Rueben Randle is but I could see him grabbing a couple of touchdowns against my Dallas Cowboys. Only Jordy Nelson has more red zone targets than Randle. Even though the Cowboys have been good against receivers, allowing only two scores all season long, this is the kind of matchup where the preseason concerns reveal themselves.
6. In your cash games, are you paying for a top QB like Andrew Luck (Cin), Peyton Manning (SF) or Aaron Rodgers (Car) or looking to find a bargain? If willing to pay a premium, which of the three listed above do you like best in Week 7?
Dan Hindery: I am willing to shell out for Aaron Rodgers this week. He has been absolutely on fire in recent weeks and has a very favorable matchup at home against a beatup Panthers defense that just gave up 37 points to a depleted Bengals offense. While his price tag is high, I am willing to take the hit and look for some bargains at RB2, WR2 and WR3 to roll with Rodgers.
Will Grant: I usually just play the cash games, and for that I tend to take better quarterbacks because I've been burned by trying to find a bargain basement QB only to have him flame out. I've used all 3 of them at one point this season, and it really depends on the match-up that they are playing. For cash games where the object is to really be 'better than average', you want a QB that you can 'set and forget'. Any of these 3 is a good option. Not having a QB that you can count on can really hurt you. In a couple games this weekend, I had Eli Manning as my QB going into Monday night. I was just below the 50% mark, and only needed an 'average' game from him to come out on top. Instead, he crapped the bed and I lost every game that he was in my lineup. Having a QB underperform is really hard to overcome and that's why having any of these guys is a good option.
Maurile Tremblay: There's no set answer here. In cash games, I'm looking to field a team with players I feel relatively safe with, but of course there's usually a trade-off between reliability and cost. The more I spend at QB, the less I can spend at other positions, and vice versa. How I make that trade-off at a given site in a given week will depend on what kinds of bargains are available at QB, what kinds of bargains are available at other positions, and how everything fits together. (At some sites, for example, you're typically paying more dollars per expected fantasy point at the QB position than at other positions, which would make me less likely to get a premium QB at those sites. But at other sites the reverse is true.)
Jeff Pasquino: It really depends on the contest and format. If I can get a rushing QB or a QB I think will have a low floor for cheap, I'll likely go after them - but it is a challenge. Some sites have players at 50% of the top guy that are still Top 20 stable QBs. Going for the likes of a Bortles, Bridgewater (who burned me in Week 6) or another can really hurt your team. I'd rather go "middle of the road" and take a high QB2 for the week for an average salary, knowing that I should get 200-250 yards a a TD at worst, which should give me about 2x value (for example, a $7K QB that gives me 14 points). It is also important to consider if you have bargains at other spots that give you more $ to spend. For example, if I can get Oliver and McKinnon cheap, that could give me more to spend for a strong QB option that week. I just remember being burned so many times by trying to save money at QB (see Matt Flynn, Thanksgiving last year).
Chad Parsons: I would bank on Andrew Luck of the three, but in general I go for middle-range or lower tier options with a great matchup and/or rushing ability. Teddy Bridgewater and Eli Manning burned me with that strategy to a small degree in Week 6, but the extra cap space allows for a top running back or wide receiver.
Justin Bonnema: Like all things fantasy, it totally depends on the matchup. There is no one strategy that works for every week. In cash games I’m more inclined to pay up for the safety net a top tier quarterback offers, especially if the projections are favorable. But I’ll always look for a bargain regardless of the format.
