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Heading into the 2013 NFL season Dwayne Bowe had upgraded at head coach, quarterback, and offensive philosophy. With Alex Smith and Andy Reid in town there was little doubt that Bowe was due for a huge improvement over his disappointing 2012 season. He was the consensus WR14 here at Footballguys and drafted as a quality WR2. What happened next was almost as strange as the Chiefs 2013 season.
The Chiefs came storming out of the gate, while Bowe merely limped. The star receiver that had averaged 8.5 targets per game since 2010 saw only 45 targets in his first 8 games. The same player that had scored 48% of his team's receiving touchdowns over the last three years scored twice in the first nine games. Somehow the Chiefs were winning big with little to no impact from their $56 million receiver. Well, the fact that they were winning so big is a huge part of Bowe's disappointing 2013 campaign.
In those first nine wins the Chiefs never gave up more than 17 points and had only three games that finished within one score. Alex Smith catches a lot of flak as a "game manager" but that was exactly what this team needed for the first 2+ months of the season. In blowout after blowout the team relied on their opportunistic defense and their running game. When they did throw the ball it came on screen passes to Jamaal Charles or dig routes to a receiver out of the slot. In the closer games it was a different story. That forebode a second half that was much more what we were expecting from Bowe.
In Bowe's final seven games (including the playoff game vs. Indianapolis) his targets bounced back to around eight per game. With the targets came production, as he posted 39 grabs for 520 yards and 4 scores over that span. Project that over 16 games and you have the WR2 we were all expecting. What changed exactly? The Chiefs defense was carved up by the likes of Denver and Indianapolis, giving up less than 23 points just once. When Andy Reid and Alex Smith were forced to move the ball, Dwayne Bowe became much more involved.
If it's just as simple as that, then why even discuss it? Because there are three lines of thought on Bowe's struggles last year and they must come from those who watched Bowe for the first time in 2013.
1. Dwayne Bowe started taking plays off. This is absolutely true, except for the "started" part. The Chiefs knew before they gave him his mega contract that Dwayne Bowe was not the type of player that gave 100% on every route. No one is going to describe him as a "gym rat", and he makes a terrible decoy.
2. Dwayne Bowe dropped too many passes. Absolutely he did, but take a look at his catch/target ratio over the last 5 years:
Year |
Rec |
Target |
% |
2009 | 47 | 87 | 54% |
2010 | 72 | 131 | 55% |
2011 | 81 | 142 | 57% |
2012 | 59 | 114 | 50% |
2013 | 57 | 103 | 55% |
Now sure, you can argue that Bowe's % should have gone up this year because this was the most accurate quarterback he's ever played with, but Bowe has never been a guy known for his great hands. He's always been a volume-based receiver. His volume went down last year (specifically in the first half) and with it his production went in the toilet.
3. Dwayne Bowe has slowed down; he can't get open any more. As a guy that's watched every game of Bowe's more than once for the last three years I can tell you that Dwayne Bowe's game has never been designed around getting wide open. His game is using his body to get between his man and the ball. His game is making the tough catch on a 7 yard slant (after he just dropped an open pass on a deep cross). The problem once again was that the Chiefs defense put Alex Smith in a position to not throw into coverage over the first nine games. Bowe is always "in coverage" especially when he's being double-teamed. That led to fewer targets and less production.
What you have above are three negative qualities of Dwayne Bowe that have been true since he entered the league. He has concentration/effort lapses, he rarely finds himself wide open, and his hands are barely above average. They're also things you need to be aware of as a fantasy owner. Just don't believe that these faults sprung up last year and led to his decline, or that the decline was permanent. Bowe is a strong receiver that provides a large target, especially on the types of short slants that Andy Reid and Alex Smith love. Bowe is the only receiver currently on the roster that anyone in Kansas City can trust when they need a first down. Bowe is the best (only) red zone threat on his team, and can be a physical, tackle-shedding receiver when he's heavily involved in the game plan.
Projected over a full season, Bowe's final seven games look like this: 89 catches, 1188 yards, 9 touchdowns. That's PPR WR14 in 2013 if you were wondering. I don't expect that much from Bowe in 2014, but I do expect his numbers to be much closer to that than the way 2013 started. If Bowe is being drafted as a WR3/4 this summer, he'll be a definite buy. As long as the Chiefs are in competitive games (and they should be in a lot of them in 2014), Bowe will be a solid WR2.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.