It isn't surprising at all to see a running back have a major drop off at age 30, in fact it usually happens before then. But receivers generally last longer, especially one that's been as consistent as Marques Colston had. Entering 2013, the 6' 4" receiver had posted 4 straight seasons of at least 70/100/7 and we had little reason to expect otherwise. He was the consensus WR13 heading into the year, and came out of the gates just fine with a 5/68/1 performance against Atlanta in week one. Over his next 6 games he'd average 4-45 and would be held without a touchdown. It was his longest scoreless streak since the beginning of the 2010 season and only the second time in his career that he'd play six straight games without a score.
While Colston's six game scoreless streak was disturbing, his major struggles came over a 3 game stretch from weeks 5-8. In those three weeks combined Colston caught 6 passes 44 yards. In examining the film from those games a lot of things stick out. For one, when locked in man coverage Colston looked completely unable to separate. Corners routinely stayed in his hip pocket as Drew Brees looked to dump the ball off to a running back or tight end. We'll get back to this later, but it looked like on a lot of plays Colston wasn't even an option in the passing game as he'd run 10-15 yards downfield and never even look back at Brees.
This was a common theme in 2013, as Brees focused even more on quick passes due to the lack of blocking up front. The Saints offensive line surrendered 37 sacks in 2013, by far the most since Brees became a Saint. While the Saints have always been a team that leaned heavily on their backs in the passing game, this increased pressure led to even more receptions out of the backfield. More than 38% of all the Saints receptions came from a running back or full back, which equaled the production of the receivers. Take a look at this trend over the last four years in New Orleans:
| RB Rec % | WR Rec % | TE Rec % | Sacks | |
| 2013 | 38% | 38% | 24% | 37 |
| 2012 | 33% | 43% | 24% | 26 |
| 2011 | 33% | 43% | 24% | 24 |
| 2010 | 25% | 52% | 23% | 26 |
This really helps explain the drop in Colston's targets and yards per reception, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Whether it was his nagging lower body injuries or age catching up to him, Colston wasn't as explosive in 2013. He didn't have one play over 35 yards in 2013 after averaging 3 such plays a year since 2009. Colston also saw a decrease in red zone activity, scoring only three times from inside the 20, his lowest total since 2008. Take away the big plays and the red zone opportunities from any receiver and you'll see a much less productive fantasy option. Of course, Colston did have his moments, and none were bigger than his playoff performance against Seattle.
Against the much heralded Seahawks secondary Colston posted 11-144-1 in a second half comeback attempt. Most of his damage came on short crossing routes where the Saints seemed to confuse the Seahawks defense. He ran good routes as always, but even his 4th quarter touchdown came on what looked to be a coverage breakdown. As was the case most of the year, Colston still seemed able to get open against a soft zone but he really struggled against man coverage. More importantly, the Seahawks were one of the few teams that had the ability to limit Jimmy Graham (1 catch for 8 yards) and that made Colston a much bigger part of the game plan.
What does this mean for 2014? On one hand, it's highly unlikely that we're going to see a more explosive Colston in 2014. He'll be 31 by the time the season starts and it's pretty rare for a receiver to see a significant bounce back at that point inn his career without a major change in his surroundings. The good news for Colston is that Darren Sproles is no longer in the equation, which almost guarantees that the Saints will throw the ball less to their running backs. The bad news is that they've lost two starters off their offensive line and have yet to replace them with upgrades. For a team that's made a lot of noise on the defensive side of the ball iin free agency, they've been extremely quiet in an area that may have been their biggest weakness.
Colston finished 2013 as WR26 in PPR scoring and that feels about right heading into the year. As an aging wide receiver on a team with offensive line problems where he's no better than the #2 option, his floor is much lower than his ceiling is high. I'd call him a low upside WR3, which is a far cry from what we've been used to. The best case scenario is a bounce back season in which he avoids the nagging injuries that plagued him in 2014 and bounces back to the 125+ target range. While that's not impossible, it's also not something I'd be betting on come draft day.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.
