No one running back was more solely responsible for his team's success in 2013 than Jamaal Charles. Charles led the team in rushing and receiving and scored 46% of the team's touchdowns. It was the most complete year of the 27 year-old's NFL career and the Chiefs have given no indications that the game plan has changed. But what if their hand were forced due to a season-ending injury? While that's likely to make the Charles owner's stomach turn, it's worth investigating as well.
The Chiefs have a capable backup in Knile Davis and drafted an explosive scat back in De'Anthony Thomas. With these options and quintessential game-manager Alex Smith under center the Chiefs initially will try to stay balanced on the ground, but that may not work. The Chiefs may have other running backs, but they don't have another Jamaal Charles. Davis and Thomas both have elite speed, but neither has shown the vision or ability to cut yet that would make you think they could fill Charles' shoes. It's far more likely that there's a noticeable drop off in the running game leading to more passing downs and chasing the scoreboard late.
The Chiefs are very thin at receiver, so even if they did decide to pass the ball downfield more, it's unclear who besides Dwayne Bowe would benefit. When the team lost Charles early in the Wild Card round in 2013 touches were dominated by Davis (25), Bowe (8), and Dexter McCluster (8). With McCluster now gone, there would be some serious opportunity for either De'Anthony Thomas or A.J. Jenkins.
BUY
QB Alex Smith - It's not like the Chiefs would immediately decide to throw the ball all over the yard, but they may not have much choice. We'll cover this more in the section below, but Knile Davis was a big step down from Charles in 2013. The Chiefs are going to find themselves in a lot of holes without Charles and that's going to lead to more pass attempts from Smith. It's true that he counted on Charles for a lot of his fantasy points but Thomas should be able to fill some of that void.
WR Dwayne Bowe - Bowe's still the only reliable receiver on this roster, and if Alex Smith is forced to throw more Bowe is going to be the primary beneficiary. In that playoff loss to the Colts Bowe hauled in 8 passes for 150 yards and a score. While he won't get to face the Colts secondary every week, he'll still see a big bump in targets. The top three Chiefs in targets last year were Charles (104), Bowe (103), and McCluster (83). If Charles goes down, Bowe may see his targets increase by 20-30%. This type of volume would make Bowe a borderline WR2 at worst.
HOLD
TE Travis Kelce - Kelce missed all of his rookie year with a microfracture, but the team still has high hopes for him. While we don't know what his volume is going to look like early in the year, it's well accepted that they need him to reach his potential for this offense to take the next step. Kelce would likely see a small increase in targets if Charles were lost, but his role in the offense at this point is so uncertain it's tough to suggest buying him. If you took him in the late rounds as a lottery ticket, there's no reason to give up on it when his targets may be increasing.
SELL
RB Knile Davis - This is counterintuitive but it also goes along with the buy low/sell high mentality. Davis' trade value is going to skyrocket if Charles is lost for the year, and it's quite likely you'll be able to obtain more for him than he's worth. Everyone will remember Davis' 25 touches and 2 touchdowns in the AFC Wild Card game and completely disregard his 3.5 YPC behind a better line last year. Davis has electric speed but last time we saw him he was a long way from being Jamaal Charles. His vision and decision-making cost him yardage and his fumble problems and injury history threaten the volume that people will be counting on. Someone in your league will project Charles' volume and success on to Davis and you'll have a prime sell-high opportunity.
ADD
RB De'Anthony Thomas - Thomas has been the talk of training camp and has already taken over the punt return job in Kansas City. He's also passed Cyrus Gray at RB3. Thomas was brought in to lessen the pain of the loss of Dexter McCluster and to this point he looks like he'll fill that role just fine. As long as Charles is healthy, Thomas' best role is probably on special teams and occasionally in the slot, but if Charles were lost he'd immediately become the Chiefs' best pass-catching weapon out of the backfield.
WR A.J. Jenkins - The team has raved about Jenkins and their plans for him since the spring. Jenkins' main competition for the slot role comes from Junior Hemingway and Thomas. Hemingway has missed a chunk of camp due to a hamstring, while Jenkins has continued to earn rave reviews from the staff. If Thomas is forced to play mostly out of the backfield and Smith is forced into more throwing situations, Jenkins targets will have to go up. He's a low ceiling player, but he could end up as a flex or bye-week replacement if he sees a big uptick in targets.
DROP
Kansas City Team Defense - The Chiefs defense is coming off a remarkable season that was aided heavily by their schedule and injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They still have the makings of an elite pass rush, but their secondary has fallen to pieces since 2013. With Charles gone the offense is going to struggle to stay on the field and that will quickly wear out the Chiefs front seven. A tired defense is one that gets exposed, especially if their secondary relies on the pass rush. This unit could go from one of the best in fantasy football to one of the worst in the league if Charles is lost for the season.