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You don't buy a Porsche to drive the kids to school, and you don't enter the Footballguys Players Championship to try and win your money back. Sure, there are a multitude of ways you can win something in this high stakes online tournament, but when there is $250,000 on the line are you playing for anything less? If your answer is yes then this isn't the strategy for you, but if you're ready to go big or go home, and have a real shot at bringing home $250K, I've got the plan for you.
While the FPC will initially set you up in a twelve team league it's important to recognize that this is a far different animal than your standard 12 team league. Risk management and prudent choices may get you in the playoffs in a twelve team league, and once you're there anything could happen. But getting into the playoffs is far cry from success in the FPC, a third of the teams in the tournament will make their respective "playoffs" but only one sixth will make the Championship round. It's not good enough to be informed in this league, everyone one is, you need to be aggressive. Before I get to the strategy that will get you to the cash, I will go over a couple of the differences in the FPC that will definitely influence your strategy.
- 1.5 PPR for tight ends. This came into play big time with the emergence of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as superstars. I anticipate this means people will overpay at almost every level for tight ends in 2013.
- Double Flex. You start two running backs, two receivers and one tight end plus two flex that can be any of the three. What this means to you is much less concern about what position you're selecting in the first five-six rounds.
- League Format. There are essentially three sections of the season as opposed to the traditional two. Your regular season is only eleven game long, providing much less margin for error, and your league playoffs are weeks 12-13. The Championship Round falls weeks 14-16, and this is where you'll compete against the other 300+ top teams for the big money.
ROUND 1
Using FFPC ADP data from Real Time Fantasy Sports you can see that the first round is still very running back heavy. Nine of the first twelve players being taken are running backs with Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant and Jimmy Graham being the exceptions. Last year I advised that you almost had to take running back if one of the top five are available, but Jimmy Graham is making that very debatable. Last year Graham was without Sean Payton and had what he called a disappointing season, and still outscored the average tight end in the FPC by 145 points for the season. I would not take a receiver in the first round, unless you're at the very end, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Jimmy Graham as early as 1.1. I know that sounds crazy, but the math is there to support it.
- Early Targets: Jimmy Graham, Lesean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles
- Late Targets: Doug Martin, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller
ROUND 2
When looking at the players taken in the second round, you see a lot more receivers. There are five receivers currently being taken in the second round, making a total of seven that should be gone by the end of round 2. The problem is that there are still a lot of receivers left after round two, and very few running backs that could be a true difference maker. I would gladly take Johnson or Bryant if they fall out of the first round, I'd also be thrilled to land A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Outside of that, I'm looking at running back in round two. One that sticks out as having the upper tier potential you want and the mid second round value you need is Chris Johnson. Johnson finished 12th in this format behind a truly atrocious line. The line is much improved this year and he could legitimately be a top five back.
- Catch them if they fall: Matt Forte, Dez Bryant, Alfred Morris
- Preferred: Chris Johnson, A.J. Green, Julio Jones
- Secondary: Marshawn Lynch, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush
ROUND 3
Round 3 is where you can really throw position out the window. Quarterback will start to come into the equation for some teams (but not yours), someone will probably take a flyer on Rob Gronkowski (maybe you), and a lot of value will be gobbled up at running back and receiver. A couple of players will fall out of the second round, but even if they don't there's plenty of value there in the third. Last year's #1 tight end in this format (Jason Witten) currently has an ADP of 3.5 and if you have a chance to grab in the third you absolutely should. 90+ receptions at 1.5 per adds up in a hurry. A couple of aging, but steady receivers (Andre Johnson and Roddy White) are also there in the third, but they aren't the guys I'd be targeting. One thing I'll say is if you've started RB-RB don't hesitate to go running back again in the third. Same with tight end, DO NOT pass on Jason Witten here just because you already have Jimmy Graham. If you had both of them last season you got more than 35 points per week out of your tight ends.
- Catch them if they fall: Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Larry Fitzgerald,
- Preferred: Jason Witten, Stevan Ridley, Rob Gronkowski
- Secondary: DeMarco Murray, Victor Cruz, Frank Gore
ROUND 4
Even though you're likely to start seeing a couple more quarterbacks go off the board in round 4, I wouldn't bite quite yet. I'm not a believer in QBBC in this format, but I also think there's too much value at the other positions to go quarterback before the fifth round. In some leagues, you may not even see a quarterback drafted by round five and then you'll want to jump. Not surprisingly, a lot of the value in the fourth round is at receiver. Last year's #2 TE in this format (Tony Gonzalez) has an ADP of 4.6, but I'd rather wait for Greg Olsen in the 6th. If you don't have a running back at this point you must take one, if you don't have two running backs at this point, you need to strongly consider it. Thankfully, there's still some value here starting with Frank Gore. Gore finished 10th in this format in 2012, so even if he sees a slight regression in 2013, he's still a great value in the 4th round. David Wilson and Lamar Miller both offer the kind of upside you're looking for with an aggressive approach.
- Catch them if they fall: Stevan Ridley, DeMarco Murray, Rob Gronkowski, Victor Cruz
- Preferred: Frank Gore, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, David Wilson
- Secondary: Lamar Miller, Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Mathews
ROUND 5
This is the first round in which I'd consider a quarterback, and the only two I'd consider are Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers. The chances of Rodgers falling to you here are slim, but Newton is another story. Newton's ADP is actually 6.1 right now, meaning he should be there for your 5th round selection. In a league like this that offers 4 points per passing TD I have Newton as my #1 QB, and if he continues to develop as a passer he may have a record breaking season coming. His production in the run game helps his consistency and when he goes big he goes real big. If you're not ready to go quarterback here a lot of the value is at receiver.
- Catch them if the fall: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Mathews, Dwayne Bowe
- Preferred: Cam Newton, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne
- Secondary: Pierre Garcon, Hakeem Nicks, Eddie Lacy
Continuing On
Scenario 1
- First Overall Pick
- Relatively Chalk Draft
Current Roster: Jimmy Graham, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Cam Newton
Rounds 6-9: The clear weakness on this roster is at receiver, thankfully receiver is the deepest position in the draft. At the 6/7 turn, I would focus on DeSean Jackson at receiver and then grab Daryl Richardson as a third running back. This gives you two quality starting receivers and strength at running back with 3 starters, a luxury many teams will not have. At the 8/9 turn I'd look for another receiver, likely Lance Moore and then solidify your strength at tight end with Jordan Cameron. Cameron is a big talented tight end that's getting a ton of hype, so don't be surprised if someone's already reached on him.
Rounds 10-13: At some point in here you need to get a backup quarterback, and my target would be Mike Vick at the 12/13 turn. He's another high upside pick that someone may go after too early, if they do Andy Dalton makes a nice consolation prize. Of course, you have two picks before that, and they just happen to fall where I think one of the great steals of the draft may be DeAndre Hopkins. Landing Hopkins at the end of the 10th would be a coup and would afford you the opportunity to take a flyer on Jonathan Stewart. It takes guts to draft Stewart without knowing much about his health, but if he comes back midseason he could give your team a major lift.
Scenario 2
- Tenth Overall Pick
- Early run on RBs and QBs
Current Roster: Dez Bryant, Chris Johnson, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Giavoni Bernard
Rounds 6-9: First be aware, that this may happen in your league. The dynamics of each league are different, and you may well fall in the league where 4-5 quarterbacks are gone before you get to the end of round 4. Patience is the key here. I would not go out and get a quarterback in the next four rounds. The first thing you need to do is address your lack of a tight end with Greg Olsen in the 6th round. Olsen has top 4 potential at tight end and we've already talked about how beneficial that can be to have on your team. In the 7th we're going to hope Daryl Richardson falls to you and if he doesn't we'll take Mike Williams. You can start up to 4 WRs each week and Williams is a solid WR2 that's falling way too far in drafts. If you take Olsen and Williams the 8th and 9th have to be about going after upside at running back. I'd suggest Ben Tate in the 8th and Bernard Pierce in the 9th.
Rounds 10-13: Now it's time to address the quarterback situation. A couple of quarterbacks I mentioned earlier fit perfectly into this type of team and they're Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford. You'll want to take Dalton in the 11th to make sure get him but you should be able to wait until later to pick up Bradford. You also still need a second tight end and more upside at running back so I'd suggest Fred Davis in the 10th and Jacquizz Rodgers in the 12th. This leaves you the 13th to build on depth at receiver with another huge upside guy in Cordarrelle Patterson.
FINISHING UP
I personally will not take a kicker or defense before the 18th round in a league like this. I generally like to go defense in the 18th, kicker in the 19th and a flyer in the 20th. No matter where you take them, you'll have 4 spots for deep sleepers at the end of the draft and here are 8 I'd suggest targeting. Do not be afraid to take these guys a round before their ADP, at this point in the draft ADP means little compared to upside.
- Roy Helu (ADP: 15.11)
- Andre Roberts (ADP: 16.7)
- Travis Kelce (ADP: 17.1)
- Markus Wheaton (ADP: 17.12)
- EJ Manuel (ADP: 18.4)
- Kenny Stills (ADP: 18.6)
- Stephan Taylor (ADP: 18.8)
- Joseph Morgan (ADP: 20.10)
I'll leave with you the team I'd draft from the 7th spot if I were Going for Broke in the FPC:
- Jimmy Graham
- Chris Johnson
- Victor Cruz
- Wes Welker
- Cam Newton
- Daryl Richardson
- Mike Williams
- Ben Tate
- Bernard Pierce
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Alshon Jeffery
- Andy Dalton
- Michael Bush
- Heath Miller
- Brent Celek
- Andre Roberts
- Markus Wheaton
- Stephan Taylor
- Cowboys DEF
- Mike Nugent
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr