Week six marked our second consecutive week of a 70% success rate at FanDuel and included a couple of huge steals in Justin Blackmon (WR2) and Joe Flacco (QB6). Alex Smith and Garrett Graham were major disappointments, but overall it was a very solid week that brings us up to 60% for the season. As week seven approaches there is an interesting dynamic. Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football feature a couple of games that should be shootouts either because of electric offenses or pathetic defenses. Will they also produce bargains? Let's check the Bargain Buys.
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Peyton Manning - $10,400
- Average Priced Player: Andy Dalton- $7,400
Best Bang for your Buck: Nick Foles ($7,200) vs. Dallas. Foles looked outstanding in week six against a tough Buccaneers defense. In week seven he faces a crucial test against a Cowboys secondary that has been questionable at times this year. David Dodds currently has Foles as his fifth best quarterback in week seven meaning he's one of the best bargains on the board.
Bargain Buy: Eli Manning ($6,800) vs. Minnesota. Manning's struggles have been well chronicled this season, but the Vikings secondary is an absolute mess. Their best player, Harrison Smith, is now out and that means Manning and his receivers should feast on this defense. I like the Giants to win their first game of the season in a shootout and Manning to have his best game of 2013.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: Jamaal Charles- $9,800
- Average Priced Player: Chris Johnson- $7,000
Best Bang for your Buck: DeAngelo Williams ($6,400) vs. St. Louis. Williams has been a pretty adequate back this season that's seen his scoring severely limited because of his inability to get into the end zone. Part of that is the fact that Mike Tolbert is getting the goal line carries, but this Rams run defense is bad enough that Williams could score from 10+ yards out.
Bargain Buy: Lamar Miller ($6,200) vs. Buffalo. It's all about the match ups this week at running back and Miller has a great one. Love the Dolphins in this game coming off their bye. If they can build a lead and get Miller 20+ touches he should be in line for the best game of his career. Like Williams, you have to worry about Daniel Thomas sniping touchdowns, but Miller is even more likely to break one for a long score.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Dez Bryant- $9,000
- Average Priced Player: Justin Blackmon and Andre Johnson- $7,100
Best Bang for your Buck: Josh Gordon ($7,000) vs. Detroit. Gordon's price went up almost 10%, but he's still a bargain at this price. The Browns are going to have to throw the ball to move the ball and Gordon is always their favorite target. He was a steal last week against the Lions and should continue to deliver in week seven.
Bargain Buy: Hakeem Nicks ($6,400) vs. Minnesota. See everything I wrote about Eli Manning and add to it that the Vikings will focus most of their efforts in the secondary on slowing down Victor Cruz. Rueben Randle has added a new element to the Giants passing game and that's made many forget about Nicks. I expect that to change this week.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Vernon Davis- $7,500
- Average Priced Player: Kyle Rudolph- $5,600
Best Bang for your Buck: Charles Clay ($4,900) vs. Buffalo. Clay has quietly emerged as a quality tight end in Miami and as I stated above, we expect the Dolphins to be able to move the ball against the Bills. Clay comes with the added benefit that he's also been used as a short yardage back so you could get a goal line carry.
Bargain Buy: Jordan Reed ($4,800) vs. Chicago. Reed is drawing rave reviews in Washington and has all but played Fred Davis out of the game plan. His price has slowly crept up on FanDuel but I expect it to explode after this week. The Bears tackling woes could be exposed by an athlete like Reed catching the ball over the middle of the field.
Defense
Minnesota vs. New York Giants. There are no valuable defenses at $5,000 so I've moved the bar up to $5,100 for week seven. The Vikings may get thrashed in the passing game by the Giants but that doesn't mean they won't get to Eli Manning and force turnovers. I expect this game to be a shootout but still wouldn't be surprised if it included a pick-6 from Manning.
Kicker
Nick Folk vs. Patriots. The Patriots look to be missing three stars off their defense this week and Geno Smith has feasted on bad defenses. I'm not sure Smith can get the Jets all the way to the end zone, but he should be able to move the ball into Folk's range.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr
