Week 5 was definitely a step in the right direction as 70% of our picks outperformed their FanDuel cost. The field was led by Philip Rivers, who placed 5th amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points. Rivers was joined by DeSean Jackson in the top five and for the year we moved to 58%. That's not good enough, but it's moving in the right direction. In week six we move back to having only two teams on a bye, which means there are more bargains to choose from. Of course, a cheap player is only a bargain if he performs, so let's take a look at this week's selections.
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Peyton Manning - $10,800
- Average Priced Player: Andy Dalton- $7,200
Best Bang for your Buck: Alex Smith ($6,500) vs. Oakland. Smith has quietly been a top ten fantasy quarterback this season and he faces a Raiders defense that just gave up more than 400 yards passing to Philip Rivers. We don't like Smith that much but we do expect him to outperform his cost by a considerable amount.
Bargain Buy: Joe Flacco ($6,600) vs. Green Bay. It's been a rough go for the Ravens offense early in the year, but the Packers are a good team to get healthy against. Their secondary still isn't 100% and now they're without their best pass rushed in Clay Mathews. If Marlon Brown is back in action this becomes an even better play.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: Adrian Peterson- $9,600
- Average Priced Player: Three Players - $7,000
Best Bang for your Buck: Danny Woodhead ($6,100) vs. Indianapolis. With Ryan Mathews out of the picture due to a concussion, Woodhead figured to see a much bigger piece of the pie. The timing is perfect for Woodhead who will face a Colts run defense that is far from the league's elite. Woodhead's involvement in the passing game makes him one of the safer bargains this week.
Bargain Buy: Ben Tate ($5,600) vs, St.Louis. I expect the Texans to come out hungry and angry this week against an inferior opponent. It's rare to start a backup running back in daily fantasy football but I anticipate the Texans running the ball down the Rams throats with both backs. This could be a situation where Foster is a stud and Tate is still a really good option as well.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Dex Bryant- $9,200
- Average Priced Player: Three Players- $7,000
Best Bang for your Buck: Josh Gordon ($6,500) vs. Detroit. The Lions secondary is suspect at best, and vastly outclassed by a receiver of Gordon's ability. As we've discussed before, the Browns offense is dependent on two players, Gordon and Jordan Cameron. Both will be great plays this week but only one is a bargain.
Bargain Buy: Justin Blackmon ($6,200) vs. Denver. The Broncos are a great matchup for receivers right now because you know they're putting up 35+ and their defense is nowhere near as good as their offense. Blackmon is a tough guy to trust on your regular fantasy team but this week, in this matchup, you should feel great about starting him.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Jimmy Graham - $8,700
- Average Priced Player: Kyle Rudolph- $5,300
Best Bang for your Buck: Garrett Graham ($5,100) vs. St. Louis. Graham has been a surprise early in the year with decent production despite the fact he sat behind Owen Daniels on the depth chart. Daniels is now out for 8 weeks and Graham gets to benefit from the Texans play-action and Matt Schaub's checkdowns.
Bargain Buy: Brandon Pettigrew ($4,800) vs. Cleveland. Pettigrew saw a large increase in targets last week and now both Calvin Johnson and Tony Scheffler are questionable. I really don't think the Lions can run the ball effectively against Cleveland and without Johnson, Stafford has no more familiar a target than Pettigrew.
Defense
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh. The Steelers offensive woes have been well-chronicled and the Jets defense looked pretty stellar last week against Atlanta. Expect to see Sheldon Richardson and Muhammed Wilkerson in Roethlisberger's face all day. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Steelers fail to break double digits.
Kicker
Rian Lindell vs. Philadelphia. This is the case of a bad offense against a bad defense. The bad offense should be able to move the ball between the 20s but Mike Glennon may struggle to get them in the end zone.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr
