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You've heard the saying save the best for last, right? Well week 16 was certainly not our best effort so that's the theory we're going to claim. It wasn't terrible, with 50% of our picks outperforming their cost, but there were no top performers in the article. That leads us to week 17, a very dangerous week indeed. It's difficult to know exactly how much some starters will play, especially on teams that have nothing to play for. That said, there should be some great opportunity with some owners risking their season's earnings in one last attempt to get rich quick. Let's take a look at this week's picks:
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Peyton Manning- $11,200
- Average Priced Player: Jay Cutler- $7,700
Best Bang for your Buck: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,300 vs. Houston). This is one of the few games that has no playoff implications, so that makes it a little bit dangerous. On the other hand the Titans don't exactly have another decent option at quarterback and the Texans have looked like they gave up long ago. Fitzpatrick won't torch this defense for 400 yard and 4 TDs like Peyton Manning did last week but he should do plenty to justify this cost.
Bargain Buy: Kyle Orton ($5,000 vs. Philadelphia). In Orton you have a quarterback in a huge game at home in good weather. The Eagles defense has been very hard to figure out, but if Matt Cassel can light this defense up we can be sure that Orton can. In the same situation last year, Orton was clearly better than Cassel. The best part of Orton is clearly the price tag. His cost provides you with all kinds of roster flexibility.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: Jamaal Charles- $10,200
- Average Priced Player: Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson- $6,500
Best Bang for your Buck: Knile Davis ($4,500 vs. San Diego). If the Chiefs are going to rest anyone this week it's going to be Jamaal Charles. Charles is their offense more than maybe any player in the league and they can't afford to get him hurt in a meaningless game. Enter Davis who has topped 10 FanDuel fantasy points in 3 of his 4 December games. Mind you this was in relief of Charles. He could be a monster this week in San Diego.
Bargain Buy: Danny Woodhead ($5,700 vs. Kansas City). Woodhead has been a top ten PPR back all year long even as primarily a change of pace back. I love his match up against what will probably be primarily back up defenders for the Chiefs. Once Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry have left the field it's difficult to find anyone on this roster to matchup with Woodhead in the open field.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Calvin Johnson- $9,300
- Average Priced Player: Julian Edelman- $6,700
Best Bang for your Buck: Keenan Allen ($6,600 vs. Kansas City). This one isn't even as much about the backups for the Chiefs. Allen torched the Chiefs secondary for 124 yards on 9 catches in their first meeting and that came against the Chiefs starters. He provides a difficult matchup for a secondary that is short on speed and we expect the Chargers to take advantage of that early and often.
Bargain Buy: Jordy Nelson ($6,000 vs. Chicago). Someone forgot to tell FanDuel that Aaron Rodgers is back. Of course the algorithmsdon't take that into account but you absolutely should. Nelson averaged more than 20 PPR fantasy points per game before Rodgers injury and should immediately bounce back to elite production. You don't find this type of production for $6,000 very often.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Jimmy Graham- $7,600
- Average Priced Player: Four players- $4,800
Best Bang for your Buck: Ryan Griffin ($4,500 vs. Tennessee). Our David Dodds has Griffin as his 5th best tight end in week 17 against a Titans defense that has been known to get exploited at this position. Griffin has been outstanding since Garrett Graham went down with an injury and there's little reason to think his hot streak won't continue.
Bargain Buy: Ladarius Green ($4,500 vs. Kansas City). Like Keenan Allen, Green torched the Chiefs secondary in the team's first meeting. Since then he's been invisible, but I expect that to change in week 17. Green will get to go up against some backup LBs and backup DBs in what should be a great matchup for Philip Rivers and the Chargers.
DEFENSE
Minnesota vs. Detroit- You'd have been pretty good the last month if you just chose your D/ST based on who was facing the Lions. The Vikings have the ability to get after the quarterback and the good fortune of having Matt Stafford winging the ball all over the field. If all else fails you can always hope for a Cordarrelle Patterson special teams touchdown.
Kicker
Sebastian Janikowski vs. Denver. You'd be hard pressed to convince me that we're going to get a focused Broncos effort in week 17 against the Raiders. They could beat this Raiders team with their C game, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what we got. Oakland should be able to drive the ball down the field with the Broncos defense bowing its back once they're in the red zone.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr