Week 14 was pretty indicative of the season for the FanDuel Bargain Buys with 60% of our picks outperforming their cost. The added bonus was that Josh McCown (QB1) and Shane Vereen (RB2) were good enough to carry your team with costs well below average. With only three weeks in the season time is running out to make money on FanDuel which means it's time to ramp up the accuracy of our picks so you can have a nice chunk of change to pull out in January. Let's get to our week 15 picks.
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Drew Brees- $10,700
- Average Priced Player: Three players- $7,600
Best Bang for your Buck: Matt Ryan ($7,500 vs. Washington). Get used to seeing this matchup because this is an outstanding matchup for any offense. Ryan has had a difficult season but he has Roddy White healthy and he's facing a defense that has nothing to play for. We have him as a top 8 option this week but his cost is outside of the top 15.
Bargain Buy: Kellen Clemens ($5,700 vs. New Orleans). The Saints defense was outstanding early in the year but lately they've shown a little vulnerability. Clemens has been hot and cold filling in for Sam Bradford, but in this matchup at this cost, he's a great value. I don't believe the Rams can stop this Saints offense which means Clemens will be throwing early and often. Whether he keeps it close or ends up in garbage time he should have plenty of opportunities to pad his fantasy stats.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: LeSean McCoy- $10,400
- Average Priced Player: Three players- $6,700
Best Bang for your Buck: Chris Ogbonnaya ($4,500 vs. Chicago). Yes, the Bears run defense has really fallen this far. So far, that Ogbonnaya is ranked by our David Dodds as the 10th best running back in PPR formats. How often do you get to select a projected top ten running back for $4,500? The answer is never. There's no reason to think the Bears are going to be any better against the run this week, so if you're brave get Ogbonnaya in your lineup.
Bargain Buy: Steven Jackson ($6,300 vs. Washington). Here we are with this matchup again. Jamaal Charles was outstanding against this defense, but he did a majority of his work running through arm tackles and running past disinterested defensive backs. Jackson has certainly lost a step, but he has the ability to run through and over this defense all day long. If the game script is what we expect in this one we could see a heavy dose of Jackson in the second half.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Calvin Johnson- $9,900
- Average Priced Player: Jordy Nelson- $6,300
Best Bang for your Buck: Roddy White ($6,200 vs. Washington). Have we said enough yet to illustrate how we feel about Washington's defense? I think we have. I'm not sure anyone has talked enough about White though. He's had 20 catches for 241 yards in his past three games and looks to be healthy for the first time all year. The only thing that's been missing in his last thee is the touchdown, and against this defense there's an excellent chance that changes in week 15.
Bargain Buy: Torrey Smith ($6,000 vs. Detroit). Smith has been maddeningly inconsistent, and with his style of play that will probably always be the case to a certain extent. But against this secondary I love a player with Smith's skills. A deep ball from Flacco seems more than likely and this could even be one of those special games where Smith gets deep behind the Lions defense more than once.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Jimmy Graham- $8,200
- Average Priced Player: Three players- $4,900
Best Bang for your Buck: Marcedes Lewis ($4,800 vs. Buffalo) We've talked all year long about how slim the pickings are at tight end below $5,000 and this week is no different. Lewis gets a decent matchup against Buffalo and he'll certainly be a red zone target if the Jaguars can get there. This team is severely limited in offensive weapons right now, so Lewis could be a big part of the game plan.
Bargain Buy: Delanie Walker ($4,800 vs. Arizona) Walker has looked close to a major breakthrough a couple of times this year but he's been plagued by both injuries and inconsistency. He's probable this week and facing one of the worst teams in the league against tight ends. It's hard to see how Tennessee is going to move the ball on the ground which should mean a lot of Ryan Fitzpatrick and several Walker targets.
DEFENSE
Baltimore vs. Detroit. There's no one I could advise playing at $5,000 so I'm bumping this week's selection up to $5,100 and sticking with the Ravens. The Lions are likely to put some points on the board against this defense but we all know Matt Stafford's propensity to turn the ball over. Any time you're facing a gunslinger like Stafford there's a chance you'll see a pick 6, and a top 5 defensive performance.
Kicker
Matt Bryant vs. Washington. This Washington team sent a pretty strong message last week that they are done. They've benched Robert Griffin III and their defense/special teams look less than interested. Bryant gets this juicy matchup in the controlled environment of his home dome. If FanDuel values were based solely on projected production I'd have to think that Bryant would be closer to $6,000. It's not, so take advantage of it.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr
