We asked for a bounce back in week eleven, and we got it. We posted a 70% success rate last week led by our tight end and our defense. Garrett Graham was the #1 overall tight end last week and Buffalo was the #2 defense. Chances are, if you started those two and spent your money elsewhere you did very well. The successful week beings us up to 58% on the year, a number we'll try to improve on in week 12. It's the final week for byes, but the Eagles have been so hot recently that we will miss them in this article. Let's take a look at this week's bargains.
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Peyton Manning- $11,000
- Average Priced Player: Four players- $7,100
Best Bang for your Buck: Alex Smith ($6,200 vs. San Diego) We had Smith as a Bargain Buy last week vs. Denver and all he did was finish as the #6 quarterback in week 11. Smith has another great matchup against San Diego in week 12 as the Chargers have struggled against the pass all year long. Smith's cost has risen, but he's still a great value at $6,200.
Bargain Buy: Eli Manning ($6,300 vs. Dallas) Manning has had a horribly frustrating year this year, but I think it starts to get better in week 12. The Cowboys defense has battled injuries all year and is very vulnerable without Sean Lee in the middle. This game looks like it could turn into a shootout quickly. I could legitimately see both Romo and Manning finishing in the top five amongst quarterbacks this week.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: Matt Forte- $8,800
- Average Priced Player: Three players- $6,800
Best Bang for your Buck: Shane Vereen ($6,200 vs. Denver) Vereen returned from injury and looked solid last week against Carolina. Maybe the biggest play for Vereen's value wasn't made by him, but was a fumble by Stevan Ridley. Though his cost puts him closer to RB25, David Dodds has him as RB7 in a game that should have the Patriots playing catch up.
Bargain Buy: Ben Tate ($6,500 vs. Jacksonville). The Jaguars have not been good against the run and as bad as the Texans have been they should still have a comfortable lead in this one by the second half. We could see Tate with a very heavy workload and a good shot to finish amongst the best fantasy running backs of week 12.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Calvin Johnson- $10,500
- Average Priced Player: T.Y. Hilton and Danny Amendola- $6,700
Best Bang for your Buck: Alshon Jeffery ($6,500 vs. St. Louis). Jeffery has been nearly as good as Marshall this year and gets a juicy matchup in week 12. The Rams have been a very opportune defense that is excellent as long as they can get pressure. Marc Trestman is one of the best in the business at coaching his quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly, and Josh McCown looks like he's been listening. These Rams corners can't stop both Marshall and Jeffery, and we're betting they'll focus on Marshall.
Bargain Buy: Dwayne Bowe ($5,000 vs. San Diego) Bowe produced at an adequate level for his cost in week 11, but still underperformed considering he saw 14 targets. This Chargers secondary isn't as good as Denver's and that should mean a more efficient Bowe. The Chiefs can't afford to stop throwing downfield because they need to get in a rhythm for their week 13 matchup with Denver.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Rob Gronkowski- $8,200
- Average Priced Player: Martellus Bennett- $5,100
Best Bang for your Buck: John Carlson ($5,000 vs. Green Bay). Carlson has been more than adequate since Kyle Rudolph went out with an injury. With a banged up Adrian Peterson and very little to work with in the receiving corps, we expect Christian Ponder to continue leaning on Carlson. As always, it's hard to find cheap value at tight end, but Carlson provides it if you spend your money on the more prominent positions.
Bargain Buy: Jared Cook ($4,700 vs. Chicago). Cook has been a major disappointment since his hot start, but he has a great matchup in week 12. The Bears defense has been bad at a lot of things this year, including covering tight ends. They'll have Tavon Austin's breakout performance in their mind and that should open things up for Cook.
DEFENSE
Minnesota vs. Green Bay. Wait, but this defense is terrible, right? Not completely. They can get pressure on the quarterback, and they're facing rookie Scott Tolzien. Another thing I really like about Minnesota's D/ST unit is that you'll have Cordarrelle Patterson on special teams. This pick is hoping for the big play, which of course means it could lay a goose egg.
Kicker
Greg Zuerlein vs. Chicago. I know it may seem like we're picking on the Bears here, but Zac Stacy is going to run wild on them, between the 20s for sure. I give the Bears a small chance of stopping him in the red zone, and I'm not sure how much success Kellen Clemens will have throwing for scores. Zuerlein comes with the bonus of a huge leg that could easily pick up 5 points at a time.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr
