Week nine was the best performance yet out of the FanDuel Bargain Buys. For the first time all year, 80% of our picks outperformed their cost, and all four of the running backs and wide receivers finished in the top nine at their position. The cream of the crop was Chris Johnson, who finished as the #9 overall running back. The only truly bad picks we had last week were Jake Locker and the Nick Novak. The success in week nine brings us up to 59% on the year and also brings us out of the worst of the bye weeks. The bargain pool expands this week, so let's try to narrow down the best of them.
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Peyton Manning- $10,600
- Average Priced Player: Ben Roethlisberger- $7,600
Best Bang for your Buck: Eli Manning ($6,400 vs. Raiders) Forget for just a moment that the Raiders just gave up an NFL record seven touchdown passes to Nick Foles. We expect Manning and the Giants offense to be better in the second half and that should start after their bye. Not convinced? Okay, then remember the Raiders just gave up seven touchdown passes last week to Nick Foles.
Bargain Buy: Josh McCown ($5,800 vs. Detroit) McCown paid off last week and now he gets an even better matchup. Detroit can't handle Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery in the secondary. As long as McCown keeps his confidence and follows the plan set by Marc Trestman, he should be in for another respectable performance. At this value, respectable pays pretty well.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: Matt Forte- $9,000
- Average Priced Player: DeMarco Murray- $7,100
Best Bang for your Buck: Eddie Lacy ($6,800 vs. Philadelphia) One of the great mysteries of FanDuel's price structure is how Eddie Lacy is still at $6,800. Since his week four bye, Lacy has been third in scoring in the FanDuel format. This week he gets a questionable Eagles defense without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. He could be looking at 30 touches, which would make him one of the best values we've ever had in this article.
Bargain Buy: Danny Woodhead ($6,600 vs. Denver) It's hard to imagine the Chargers holding Denver below 40, which is going to likely mean a whole lot of garbage time. Woodhead should see a bunch of targets in the passing game and plenty of open field situations against a Denver defense that has struggled at times this year.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Calvin Johnson- $9,900
- Average Priced Player: Andre Johnson and Antonio Brown- $6,900
Best Bang for your Buck: Eric Decker ($6,200 vs. San Diego) The Broncos couldn't ask for a better match up coming out of the bye. The Chargers have trouble guarding anyone in the passing game, much less the best passing game in the NFL. It's always a little bit of wide receiver roulette when choosing a Bronco, so why not take the cheapest one?
Bargain Buy: T.Y. Hilton ($6,000 vs. St. Louis) Hilton showed what many had been speculating; with Reggie Wayne out for the year Hilton is a borderline WR1 the rest of the way. He's virtually guaranteed double digit targets, and he's been a fantasy stud virtually any time he gets that type of opportunity. He's still being priced well below that level, so take advantage while you can.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Jimmy Graham- $8,700
- Average Priced Player: Jared Cook- $4,800
Best Bang for your Buck: Zach Miller ($4,600 vs. Atlanta) With Jordan Reed playing on Thursday night and Jordan Cameron and Rob Gronkowski on bye, the pickings are obviously a little slim at tight end this week. Miller has a good matchup against Atlanta and the Seahawks receiving corps is still a little bit thin with Sidney Rice out.
Bargain Buy: Charles Clay ($4,700 vs. Tamp Bay) Clay has been one of the surprises of 2013 and has developed a good relationship with Ryan Tannehill. This situation could go a number of ways in Miami, but I'm guessing the team bands together and puts up a good performance on Monday Night Football.
DEFENSE
Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh. The Steelers have trouble with the pass rush and the Bills have an all or nothing approach to getting after the quarterback. The Bills aren't going to shut this offense down, they may not even slow it down. That being said, I like their chances to pick up 4+ sacks and a couple of turnovers.
Kicker
Alex Henery vs. Green Bay. Henery has had a bit of a cold streak lately, but the Eagles aren't going to hang 49 on Green Bay. Nick Foles should be able to move the ball against this defense and Henery should get a few opportunities at midrange field goals.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr