My first inclination when I was invited to participate in #First2014FFMock was "What? A mock in January? That's crazy early." My second inclination was, "Yes!" #First2014FFMock was put on by Dan Clasgens at getsportsinfo.com and hosted by My Fantasy League. While it may seem like a crazy idea to do your first mock right after the Super Bowl, it does give you a head start on establishing some consensus on value. The one disclaimer I will put on this mock is that there were no rookies involved, because the mock started before MFL had opened their 2014 season. I'll give a quick breakdown, followed by some key observations.
Round 1
This draft started like I suspect many in 2014 will, with Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Adrian Peterson leading things off. I am on board with each of the first two picks but I'll have a hard time taking Peterson with the third pick in a PPR league this year. Speaking or PPR, target monster Matt Forte went fourth overall, followed by the first non-running back, tight end Jimmy Graham. I was totally on board with this pick at the time, and followed the trend later, but when I saw the value at tight end in the late rounds it really made me question it.
Marshawn Lynch went 6th overall, which is way too rich for my blood in a PPR league, followed by Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard. They were two of three second-year running backs to go in the first round, It was less than a year ago that the hype train was barreling out of control over second year backs Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris...it doesn't look like 2014 will be any different.
The only two receivers taken in the first round were Calvin Johnson (1.9) and A.J. Green (1.11). I was very happy to land Green at 1.11 as I have him as the top receiver heading into 2014. Sandwiched in between them was Peyton Manning and yes, I still think it's crazy to take a quarterback in the first round. Manning was worth this cost in 2013, but betting on that in 2014 seems like fools gold. There's a reason last year was so historical for Manning, and the likelihood of him following it up with an equally historical season seems low.
Rounds 2-4
The second round and early third were dominated by receivers. Eleven of the next seventeen picks were wide outs with Josh Gordon starting things off at 2.1. I'd say you're going to have to be near the turn if you want to have Gordon on your roster this year, unless you want to use a first round pick on him. I took Doug Martin at 2.2 and if I hadn't taken Green I'd have probably taken him at 1.11. There seems to be a lot of concern over his slow start to 2013 and Mike James/Bobby Rainey's performance in the second half. I share none of those concerns and see little chance that Martin isn't a solid RB1 if he plays 16 games next year.
One of the best values I saw in the early rounds was Arian Foster. Foster fell to 2.8 due to concern that his latest injury will carry over into 2014. People still love to reference his decline from 2010-2012, but what they fail to recognize is that he completely bucked that trend in the first half of 2013. Foster was back to his elite ways before he got injured last year and if Ben Tate leaves as expected Foster is a major bounce back candidate.
At the second turn I took Rob Gronkowski at 3.11 and Ray Rice at 4.2. This is very close to where Gronkowski was going last year, but I feel like it will inch up as reports on his health improve. Remember, as long as you get 12 games out of him, you're getting a top two tight end. Rice was one of last year's biggest disappointments, but there's good reason to believe he was never fully healthy and at worst case he should be a solid RB2. The fact that you can get Rice at 4.2 (or Alfred Morris at 3.6) is a great reason to look wide receiver early, especially if you're drafting towards the back of the first round. Some of the great values from rounds three and four were:
- 3.2 Jordy Nelson- Nelson is an absolute stud when Aaron Rodgers is healthy, no reason to think he won't be a WR1 next year.
- 3.12 Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers has to be at least even odds to finish as QB1, yet he was the third QB taken, a full 2 rounds after Manning.
- 4.9 Julius Thomas- Again, Thomas's value looked better at this point in the draft than it did later, but I still think this is a steal.
Middle Rounds (5-8)
I'll start with my picks and we'll work from there. At the 5/6 turn I went with Torrey Smith and Michael Floyd. Floyd is a guy I expect to dart up people's draft boards once all of the "third year breakout" hype begins. He made major strides in 2013 and there's good reason to believe he'll be at least as valuable as his veteran counterpart Larry Fitzgerald. There is some concern there about Carson Palmer, but not enough to keep me from feeling like this is a good value. Smith is someone that I think has his value held down by the expectations of others. A lot of people (myself included) expected Smith to make a leap last year. He didn't, but he still provided solid value as a WR2/3. He's definitely a boom or bust play that needs to be surrounded by consistent talent on your roster.
At the 7/8 turn I went with Darren Sproles and DeAndre Hopkins. Sproles is no longer someone you can count on as a starting running back, but in PPR leagues he should still be a very solid RB3. He has more value than some of the running backs taken much earlier. Hopkins is another high upside receiver, but he also comes with a very low floor. I was disappointed by the way he finished the season, but if he develops in the offseason and the Texans find a quality quarterback this could be an absolute steal.
Great values from the middle rounds
- 6.1 T.Y. Hilton- I immediately regretted not taking Hilton at 5.11 after I saw this pick. I don't believe he has WR1 upside but I see him as a near lock as a WR2.
- 6.7 Jordan Cameron- This is the point where I started wondering about my strategy of taking a tight end early. Cameron could be TE2 if Gronkowski can't stay healthy.
- 6.12 Andrew Luck- It's hard for me to believe that Luck won't go higher in most drafts in 2014. I like him as a top 5 QB, which makes this a steal.
- 7.4 Percy Harvin- Let's call this a glitch in the matrix. Pretty sure Harvin was lost in shuffle with draft boards sorted by 2013 ADP.
- 8.9 Robert Griffin III III- And this is why you wait at quarterback. Griffin was on pace to be a QB1 before the late season Shanahanigans in Washington.
Late Rounds (9-14)
I finally took my quarterbacks at the 9/10 turn. At 9.11 I landed Matt Ryan and matched him up with Andy Dalton at 10.2. I was high on Dalton last year, and it doesn't seem like his top five finish did much to convince fantasy owners. Ryan will likely be on a lot of my teams, with Julio Jones returning he has top five potential. I went for upside at the 11/12 turn with Bernard Pierce and Ladarius Green. Pierce was also a bit of a hedge against having Ray Rice as my RB2. Green could be the Julius Thomas of 2014 if Antonio Gates doesn't return. In the final two rounds I selected my kicker (Justin Tucker) and my defense (Texans). There really isn't a lot of strategy here, other than don't take your kicker or defense until your last two picks.
Late round values:
- 9.7 Rusell Wilson- I'm sure you're starting to notice a theme here, wait at QB.
- 10.1 Greg Olsen- Ditto on the tight ends.
- 10.6 David Wilson- All the reports on his neck are positive, he has enough upside to justify a higher draft slot.
- 11.3 Nick Foles- The 14th QB taken in this draft, is there any reason to think he won't be a QB1 in 2014?
- 12.1 Jordan Reed- If concussions aren't an issue in 2014 this will look like an absolute steal.
- 12.4 DeAngelo Williams- Williams is nothing special, but to find a running back with this much volume in the 12th round is unheard of.
- 13.3 Jacquizz Rodgers- Rodgers was a solid RB3 last season and Steven Jackson is another year older.
OBSERVATIONS
1. I'm not doubting the talent of Jimmy Graham and Peyton Manning, but it is very tempting to wait on both quarterback and tight end. The chart below shows the number of players taken at each position by round. One thing that sticks out to me, through five rounds there had only been four quarterbacks and three tight ends taken. The 12th quarterback wasn't taken until the 10th round, and the 12th tight end was still around in round 12. I'm not sure you can afford to punt both positions, but you certainly don't need to reach early.
2. The depth at running back means that the RB-RB approach is far from a necessity, but you still need to get one by the third round. One thing I noticed, especially after I took Ray Rice, was how quickly mediocre runnign backs started flying off the board. Take a look at the running backs drafted in rounds four and five:
- 4.2 Ray Rice
- 4.3 Frank Gore
- 4.4 Maurice Jones-Drew
- 4.8 Shane Vereen
- 5.3 Montee Ball
- 5.4 Trent Richardson
- 5.7 Ben Tate
- 5.8 Lamar Miller
- 5.9 Steven Jackson
- 5.10 Rashad Jennings
- 5.12 Andre Ellington
3. Wide receiver is still one of the deepest positions around, especially in PPR leagues. While all of those mediocre running backs were flying off the board, high upside wide receivers were sliding farther than I thought possible. In other words, it's fine to grab an elite wide receiver early, but feel very confident in your ability to find your WR2/3 later in the draft.
4. Take the best player available. This is basically what it all comes down to. I won't be going into any drafts this year with a preconceived notion about what position I'm going to take where, no matter my draft slot. The depth at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end mean that you can basically pick your poison at the top of the draft as long as you make sure you have your RB1 by round three.
View the entire draft at My Fantasy League here.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.