If you're looking for an explanation of Draft to Trade, please read part one here. Part one of this series focused on the first eight rounds of a draft and drafting players whose value will increase over the first 4-5 games of the season due to opportunity or schedule. In part two I want to give you ten players you can draft in round nine or later that may begin the season as afterthoughts and turn into tradable assets during the season.
Ronnie Hillman (ADP: 9.06, RB37) Hillman's ADP is still lagging well behind Montee Ball's despite the fact that nearly all of the evidence points to a committee approach in Denver. If anything, I would think that Hillman would have the edge early in the season as Peyton Manning decided whether or not he can trust Ball. Hillman's schedule is it's easiest from weeks 3-6 and a monster game or two during this stretch could make him an excellent trade piece.
Ben Tate (ADP: 9.09, RB39) With reports of Arian Foster's health being less than rosy it's possible we'll see Tate's ADP skyrocket this week, but for now he remains an excellent value. Tate does not start the season off with a great schedule, but he may be a trade piece before the season even starts. One setback for Arian Foster late in the preseason and the Foster owner will come knocking on your door. Just don't give this talented back away for nothing.
DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: 10.06, WR42) Hopkins has had an excellent camp and will be the clear #2 option behind Andre Johnson. His ADP suggests that not everyone is buying into the hype on him, but a couple of big performances to start the season should change that. Defenses will come into this year expecting more of the same from the Texans with a heavy dose of the running game and Andre Johnson. They'll eventually adjust to Hopkins, but by then his value will be much higher than WR42.
Fred Davis (ADP 12.08, TE16) Davis is still being discounted because of his injury history, and I can understand that. That being said, a big performance on Monday Night Football against a below average Eagles secondary could change everyone's opinion in a hurry. Davis has an elite quarterback and it isn't like Robert Griffin III is overwhelmed with great options in the passing game. Davis could turn into a draft day steal but more importantly, for the purposes of this article, he could seriously enhance his value over the first few weeks of the season.
Brian Hartline (ADP 13.06, WR52) I'm not buying all of the negative hype surrounding Mike Wallace this offseason. That being said, it's pretty clear that quarterback Ryan Tannehill is most comfortable with Hartline at the moment. Four of the Dolphins first five games come against great match ups and in PPR leagues Hartline could legitimately perform like a WR1 during that stretch. He's not a special enough talent to ever have that kind of value long term, but his value after week five should be much higher than WR52.
Bilal Powell (ADP: 14.12, RB54) This one is a bit of a reach, but remember we're talking about the 54th ranked running back right now. Chris Ivory is the starter in New York for as long as he can stay healthy, but if he's getting 20 carries a game I'm not sure we have any reason that will last very long. Ivory has a long injury history that's continued into this offseason. Mike Goodson cannot be relied upon, so this could result in Powell finally getting the shot that many of us have thought he's deserved since last year. He probably won't ever turn into a starter, but he could develop into a throw-in to help you put a deal together.
Daniel Thomas (ADP: 16.01, RB56) Much like Ben Tate, I believe we'll see Thomas' ADP rise over the next couple of days. Lamar Miller is doing nothing to win a job that everyone presumed was his from the beginning. Thomas hasn't shown much in his two years in the league, but the Dolphins seem impressed with him so far this year. He certainly has potential to turn into more than anyone else being drafted in this range, especially if he gets a large chunk of the workload early on. The Dolphins start the season with some very questionable defenses.
Heath Miller (ADP: 16.02, TE21) Miller is expected to start the season on the active roster, which is more than we expected a month ago. I don't expect he'll play the first four games but as soon as he's back he's a TE1. A 16th round pick is not too much to spend on a player that could be helping you improve your roster as soon as week five. There are a lot of questions surrounding this Steelers offense, but Miller is a known quantity. Once he's healthy Ben Roethlisberger will target him heavily.
Andre Roberts (ADP 16.08, WR62) Did you know that Andre Roberts was the #1 fantasy receiver in Arizona last year? Don't feel bad if you didn't because judging by his ADP, hardly anyone noticed. The Cardinals start off with a very favorable slate of pass defenses that will, of course, focus most of their attention on Larry Fitzgerald. Michael Floyd has yet to show that he's ready to be a solid WR2, and if he does this year it's more likely it happens as the season progresses. Early in the year Roberts should be Carson Palmer's second favorite target.
Rod Streater (ADP 18.03, WR65) Streater as a late round flyer isn't tied so much to his schedule as it is to his role, that I don't believe many have fully accepted. Streater is the best short route runner on the Raiders roster, and with their concerns on the offensive line that may be the only types of passes they have time for. Streater's value, and place in this article, is based mostly on PPR production so you can ignore him in standard scoring leagues.
One thing that may stick out from this list is that you don't see any quarterbacks. I'm not saying you shouldn't take a backup quarterback at the end of the draft, I'm just saying you shouldn't draft them as trade pieces. Running backs are the currency of fantasy football, or at least the dollar bills. Receivers and tight ends would be more like change, and quarterbacks are a little bit like a Canadian dollar in Texas. they have value, but you have to find just the right situation. If you want to make trades in fantasy football, draft a lot of depth at running back, and look for upside. I'll be back after week four with an update on these players and a list of players that you should look to acquire moving forward.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.
