Draft to Trade is a theory I introduced last year built around drafting a team and turning it over during the season to maximize your chances at a championship. It is for the active owner that wants to stay busy during the season. Now that we have a few weeks of the season under our belt it's a time to look back at some of the players I suggested to draft, and what to do with them. It's also time to look at some of the best buy low/splurge options out there in leagues. Let's get started with the players I suggested back in August.
Arian Foster looked like a brilliant pick over the first two weeks but his hamstrings couldn't hold up to the heavy usage. He's a strong hold right now, at least until he gets a little bit more stable. There's no rush to trade him because when he's been RB7 in PPR leagues when he's played. Others in the hold category include Brandon Marshall, Rob Gronkowski, Percy Harvin, and Jordan Cameron. Marshall and Cameron have been hampered by injuries while Gronkowski seems to be pacing himself for the stretch run. I'd sell any of these players if they have a hot two week run over the next 4 weeks, but if not hold on to them knowing that they should bounce back eventually.
Unlike the group above some of our August picks have far outperformed their draft status, and it may be time to move them.
Mike Wallace- Wallace is currently WR13 in PPR leagues, which is well above what you paid for him. He's done so against good and bad defenses, but now is a good time to try and move on. He may gain a little value after his Week 5 bye, and he has good match ups in Week 7 and 8, so don't give him away, but put him on the market and see what he'll bring.
Pierre Thomas- Thomas was having a fine RB2 season until last week's stinker. This week he gets the woeful Buccaneers defense, and Mark Ingram is still on the shelf. Like Wallace, Thomas has a couple of good match ups around the corner (Week 8/9) but by then Ingram could be back. The best hope for Thomas is that he lights up the Buccaneers and then you can move him.
Fred Jackson- Jackson has been a borderline RB1 through the first four weeks, but there's good reason to think that run is about over. This isn't so much schedule related as it is age and offense related. There's a great chance that inserting Kyle Orton into the offense is only going to make things worse, and we have no idea how EJ Manuel will respond if he's moved back into the starting role. I'd be shopping Jackson fervently.
Kelvin Benjamin- Benjamin is the odds on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has a chance at some historic rookie numbers. He's Cam Newton's only weapon in the passing game besides Greg Olsen and he's done more with his targets than anyone projected. While that may sound like a sell-high candidate, I'm holding on Benjamin unless someone blows me away. Benjamin has a favorable playoff schedule and there's no reason to expect a serious decline in his numbers.
Travis Kelce- There were plenty of people telling you to buy low on Kelce in August, so I won't take the credit for that, but I will tell you what to do with him now. If you drafted Kelce as your TE2 and your TE1 is performing, it's time to sell. His match up with San Francisco is awful this week and he has a bye after that. I do see Kelce as an elite tight end in the future, but his production will still be uneven for the remainder of 2014. Odds are there is a TE-desperate owner in your league salivating over the idea of acquiring Kelce. Make him pay up.
Buy Low
Tony Romo- Romo is only QB14 through 4 weeks because of the huge success the Cowboys have had in the run game. Eventually they're going to run into some shootouts and he'll be a top ten QB. More importantly, he has the easiest playoff schedule of anyone outside of Jake Locker. If you're off to a fast start without him, go get Romo.
Doug Martin- Martin's value has been all but shattered by poor run blocking and injury issues. He should be dirt cheap and has a very favorable playoff schedule. The Buccaneers are showing signs of improvement and it wouldn't take much to make Martin a reliable RB2. That's not what you hoped for if you drafted him, but at his current cost it would be outstanding value.
Andre Johnson- Johnson's a guy you may want to wait a couple of weeks on as his next two match ups aren't outstanding. After that 5 of his final 9 games are against very favorable match ups. The performance of Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeAndre Hopkins should've knocked his price down considerably, but he should rebound in the second half.
Zach Ertz- Ertz is struggling to get targets, but he's been very productive with the targets he's getting. Ertz's catch rate (65%) and Y/R (16.9) rank first and second respectively amongst Eagles' wide receivers and tight ends. Chip Kelly is a smart man and it's hard to believe that Ertz will be 5th in targets much longer. Buy before his stock soars.
Splurge
Drew Brees- Outside of Houston, no quarterback has a bigger difference between how tough their schedule has been and how easy it's going to be. Brees is about to get hot, and his playoff schedule is golden. If the owner in your league is even slightly discontent, make him an offer he can't refuse.
LeSean McCoy- McCoy's 2.7 YPC is enough to scare anyone, and Darren Sproles is definitely getting in the way. That being said, the Eagles offensive line is going to get healthy in the next month and when they do McCoy should be much improved. Sproles isn't going to cut into McCoy's workload any further because he's not the type of back that can handle a big load. Don't pay for the #1 overall pick, beut be prepared to pay for more than what McCoy has given so far.
Jordy Nelson- There are surely some owners out there feeling like now is the time to sell high on Nelson, but it isn't. When he and Rodgers have both been healthy, he's been an elite receiver for the last 3 years. If someone things they're winning by charging a WR1 price tag for a stud receiver, you need to go ahead and buy. He's as reliable as any WR1 in the game right now.
Rob Gronkowski- New England's offense is off to a rocky start, and I'm not ready to buy on Brady, but Gronkowski is an elite talent that who can carry you on touchdowns alone. The Patriots have tried to use him sparingly early in the year but we're approaching desperation mode, which will also mean all hands on deck. I expect his usage and his numbers to increase greatly in the near future.
I'll be back in 3 weeks with more Draft To Trade, but if you have any questions in the mean time feel free to ask me on Twitter @heathcummingssr