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As someone that has spent long time in the insurance industry, I've always thought it was a little bit like gambling. The insurance companies know the odds, and they set the premiums based on the odds that you have a claim. Of course this isn't a perfect system on a case by case basis. You may pay premiums for 20 years without ever having a loss. In that case, the insurance company won the bet. Or your house may burn down two years after you build it. Yes, you lost a house, but in the wager with the insurance company, you won big time. Like insurance, having a blanket theory that you should always (or never) buy (draft) a handcuff isn't near as accurate as looking at them on a case-by-case basis.
When determining how much insurance to buy there are a multitude of factors to consider but the three biggest are the cost, the payout, and the likelihood you'll use the coverage. In this way, insurance is also a lot like running backs' handcuffs. The cost involves a draft picks, the potential payout is the backup's talent, and the likelihood you'll use him depends on the talent and the reliability of the starting back. With that in mind last week I took at AFC backup running backs, and which backs were worth the premium. Now it's time to take a look at the NFC,
Insurance companies demand all of the facts before offering insurance, and you should before you buy it. There are some situations that are just far too fuzzy to warrant even considering insurance. Sometimes it's because we don't know for sure who the backup running back is (Cowboys, 49ers, Buccaneers, Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals) and sometimes it's because we really don't know who the starting running back is (Giants, Saints). I've also discounted the Lions, because Joique Bell and Mikel LeShoure would share the load if something were to happen to Reggie Bush, and the Panthers, because it's hard to call Jonathan Stewart a handcuff and we have no idea when he'll be ready.
That leaves us with six situations left to consider in the NFC. They range from extremely costly to almost free. I've ranked them below with an evaluation of their cost, likelihood of being productive, and the potential payout to come up with a rating. Here's the way I broke down the backs (the higher the number the better), with a short breakdown of each to follow.
| Cost | Likelihood | Potential | Overall | |
| Michael Bush | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Roy Helu | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| Toby Gerhart | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Isaiah Pead | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
Michael Bush (ADP: 14.3, Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 135.3) I fully expected Bryce Brown to be #1 when I started this piece, but the cost of Bush is so much lower that it pushed him to the top, barely. Last year was a down year for Bush, but with Marc Trestman in town anyone that may suit up at running back for the Bears sees an increase in value. Bush has always been a good pass catcher, so if Forte does go down to injury he could produce solid RB2 numbers. When you factor in Forte's durability issues over the past two seasons Bush is a no-brainer. Suggestion: Buy in the 13th round.
Bryce Brown (ADP: 10.3, Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 154.9) I fully expect Brown to be relevant even when LeSean McCoy is healthy, but if McCoy goes down you've likely got yourself a borderline RB1. Chip Kelly is going to use multiple backs and run a ton of plays. That's an outstanding situation for a backup running back. The only thing that would be better is if Brown hadn't driven his value up so high last year. Suggestion: Buy in the 9th round.
Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: 12.1, Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 123.9) There is a part of me that feels Rodgers is overvalued. He didn't seize the job last year when Michael Turner was hobbling his way through the season, so why would he be worth anything with a much spryer Steven Jackson in the mix. Well, Jackson is 30 years old, so there's really no guarantee how spry he'll be. Rodgers caught 53 passes for the Falcons last season, if Jackson goes down that number will skyrocket. Suggestion: Buy if he falls into the 12th round.
Roy Helu (ADP: 18.5, Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 85.5) I was very high on Helu last offseason, and then he couldn't even get on the field. Now he's totally healthy and back doing Roy Helu things. If Alfred Morris is injured there's little doubt that Helu could succeed in this offense. Of course, the problem for Helu is that he finds himself behind a second year workhorse, and his only chance for relevance is an injury to Morris. Thankfully, his ADP still makes him a good buy. Suggestion: Buy in really deep leagues.
Toby Gerhart (ADP: 19.1, Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 78.3) The main problem with Gerhart is that he just isn't special. There's little doubt that if Peterson goes down he's see a solid workload, but I have a hard time seeing him do anything with that workload. It doesn't do much to handcuff your star running back with a below average talent in a bad offense. Suggestion: Pass.
Isaiah Pead (ADP: 12.11, Projected PPR Fantasy Points: 95.1) Pead was beat out by Daryl Richardson in 2012 and he's been beat out again. Even if you ignore the fact that he'll miss week one due to a suspension, I just can't see any reason to buy him as a handcuff. His ADP is a reflection of the doubt surrounding Richardson, not anything Pead has done. If Richardson can't succeed in this offense there's little reason to think Pead will. Suggestion: Pass.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr
