This will be the final installment of Believe It or Not and as we did last week we'll devote our efforts this week to 2014 and beyond. Week 16 was a very strange week with a much-maligned quarterback moving into the top 5 in YTD fantasy points while another young quarterback continued his startling skid. At running back, we saw what we thought was a backup running back stake his claim to being a fantasy RB1 in 2014. What does this mean for your dynasty leagues, or 2014 redraft drafts? Let's take a look in this week's Believe It or Not.
Andy Dalton should be drafted as a top six option at quarterback next year.
Dalton's is a 26 year old quarterback entering the prime of his career and he's currently ranked 4th amongst all quarterbacks in fantasy points. He's improved each year of his career and has a ton of young weapons that continue to improve with him. The only quarterback that's younger than him and has more fantasy points this year is Matthew Stafford. Despite what his critics may say, Dalton is clearly a mid-tier QB1.
Verdict: Believe it. His detractors will tell you that he's too inconsistent to be a QB1, but have you seen Stafford the past couple of weeks (more on this later)? Dalton has a stable of explosive weapons at his disposal, and it's very easy to make the argument that this offense will be even better in 2014. The only argument I can see against drafting this high is that the consensus is so low on him that he'll probably fall into the QB10-QB12 range.
Matt Stafford's place at the elite fantasy quarterback table is in jeopardy.
Stafford averaged exactly 10 fantasy points per game in your typical fantasy playoffs. This after averaging more than 25 F/PPG in his first 12 games of the season. More importantly to the future, Stafford's poor play may have cost his coach his job and we have no idea how forgiving a new regime would be to Stafford's poor mechanics and decision making. He could absolutely be one of the biggest busts of 2014.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Is it more likely that a new coach is better or worse for the Lions? You'd have to guess better, right? Is it more likely that Stafford has better or worse weapons than Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew next year? Again, it almost has to be better. Even with his terrible cold streak to end the season Stafford still ranks as the third best fantasy quarterback this season and it's a virtual lock he's going to finish amongst the top six. He's certainly a risk moving forward, but his upside makes the risk worth it.
Joique Bell should be drafted as a high level RB2 next year.
Coming into the year very few had the foresight to see the fantasy impact that Bell could have. Injuries and fumbling problems have opened the door for Bell and he's shone brighter than any of us predicted. He's RB14 in PPR leagues with less touches than any back in front of him outside of Danny Woodhead. The Lions offense looks great with Bell on the field and it looks like he may move Reggie Bush into a change of pace role in 2014.
Verdict: Believe it. Bell has been outstanding in Bush's shadow and Bush is approaching the age where we'd expect injuries to increase and productivity to decrease. It's a little brash to say that Bell could with the job outright next year but he didn't need the starting job to do what he's done in 2013. Bell will be undervalued next year because no one likes committees, but the chances of it staying a committee all year long are pretty slim.
Ryan Mathews should be trusted as a solid RB2 in 2014.
Fantasy owners cringe at the idea of trusting Mathews because he's burnt us so often in the past, right? Kind of. He missed four games in 2010 and 2012 and finished as a top 32 back each year. In 2011 he played 14 games and was a very solid RB1. This year he's had to share the workload with Danny Woodhead, but he's also not missed a game and he's on pace for more than 1300 total yards. Mathews is in a solid situation in San Diego with Mike McCoy and should be back on your radar.
Verdict: Believe it. Mathews stock was way down this year because of not only his inconsistency but also the fact that Woodhead was brought in and the new regime had no ties to Mathews. Well, the Chargers offense has been good enough to support two fantasy running backs and Mathews has looked like his 2011 self. He's still relatively young and he's finally put a full 16 game season together. There are plenty that will still shy away from him in 2014 but I'm not one of them.
Roddy White is ready to be a WR2 again in 2014.
White struggled mightily early in the year with nagging injuries and the extra attention with Julio Jones out for the year. Even after a few weeks off he was barely heard from until week 13. Since week 13 he's been the 6th best receiver in PPR scoring. White is healthy again and he'll be even better in 2014 when he has Julio Jones across from him.
Verdict: Believe it. Yes White is on the wrong side of 30, but that doesn't matter near as much for receivers as it does for running backs. Next year the Falcons will have Jones back and they'll likely be without Tony Gonzalez. To me that spells the perfect situation for White to turn into a PPR monster. I wouldn't get too excited about him in a standard scoring league but I'd have no trouble taking him in WR15 range in PPR leagues. Let everyone else worry about whether he's lost a step and sweep in for the target heavy option.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.
