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More than 80% of those in your league have concluded their fantasy season and if you're reading this article I assume you're either one of the fortunate few or you're a dynasty player. As I mentioned last week, this article will be looking more from a dynasty/keeper angle for the last couple of weeks, so view this issue with a mind on 2014 and beyond. If you're strictly a redraft player, congratulations on making the playoffs...and I hope you still enjoy the article.
Jamaal Charles is the clear #1 pick in 2014.
Charles week 15 performance was the cherry on top of an already outstanding season. He's now second in the NFL in total yards, first in TDs, and has scored 20% more fantasy points than the RB2 in PPR formats. We all knew Andy Reid would be good for Charles, but we had no idea how good he'd be. You don't have any reason to select anyone other than Charles with the first pick next year.
Verdict: Believe it. Some people may warn you about his usage, but there are only two backs in the top seven this year that are younger than Charles, LeSean McCoy and Knowshon Moreno. McCoy's actually seen more touches than Charles this year and no one is going to be arguing for Moreno as the #1 pick. While it's true that Charles is unlikely to match this historic fantasy production, he's still the best bet to finish in the top five again next year.
Zac Stacy is a RB1 for the foreseeable future.
The 22 year old rookie came from third on the depth chart to become one of 2013's best stories. He took over as the feature back in week 5 and since then he's RB8 in PPR leagues. He's scored 7 touchdowns in the last 6 weeks for a team that had seemingly been forever without a rushing touchdown. He won't be drafted as a RB1 next year which will make him a great value after the first two rounds.
Verdict: Believe it. Stacy's hard-nosed running style fits what Jeff Fisher wants from his running backs perfectly. He's proven that he's a far better option than either Daryl Richardson or Isaiah Pead, and there's no reason to think the Rams would waste a pick on a running back this year. Fisher will ride Stacy for the next 2-3 years which should make him one of the best volume bets in the league. His 222 touches since week 5 rank 4th in the NFL.
Rashad Jennings will be the Raiders running back of the future, and at least a RB2 in fantasy.
Jennings continued his fantasy scoring spree in week 15 with 2 more 1 yard touchdowns against the Chiefs. Jennings has proven to the Raiders that Darren McFadden is expendable which will open the door for him to be the feature back in 2014 and beyond. He's the fifth best running back on a ppg basis in the last five weeks, and should be a high upside RB2 next year.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The Raiders are flush with cash this offseason and I'd be shocked if they didn't throw at least some of it at a free agent running back. Jennings will turn 29 next year, and there are very few 29 year old running backs that can be viewed as a running back of the future. As successful as he's been in fantasy recently, it's a bit of a fluke. He's averaging just 3.7 YPC in his last three games and his stats have been buoyed by a plethora of opportunities at the goal line.
Ryan Tannehill will be a very serviceable QB1 in 2014 and beyond.
Tannehill's actually been very close to a serviceable QB1 in 2013, and he's been much better lately. In the last three weeks he's been the #3 overall quarterback in fantasy points and he's closing in on a top 12 season. Despite all the turnover and drama in Miami, he has his team on the verge of the playoffs, and has done the same for any fantasy owner savvy enough to start him.
Verdict: Believe it. Tannehill started the year with great chemistry with Brian Hartline and throughout the year he's built a relationship with both Mike Wallace and Charles Clay. He now has a full assortment of weapons and has worked beautifully behind a very suspect offensive line. He's likely to finish this season as QB12, and no one should be surprised if he jumps into the top eight in 2014.
Antonio Brown is a top 5 PPR wide receiver for the foreseeable future.
I was as wrong as anyone about Brown this year as I thought he'd post mid-level WR2 numbers. Instead he's been the third best scoring receiver in PPR formats. He has the trust of Ben Roethlisberger and has really excelled since Roethlisberger has been given more control of the offense. At 25 years old there's no reason to think that Brown won't continue to post these kinds of numbers, or better.
Verdict: Don't believe it. This is nothing against Brown, nor do I think his production this year is a fluke. My problem with valuing him like a top five option is that there are just too many other young talented receivers to consider. I can't put Brown ahead of A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, or Alshon Jeffery. There's also several others I'd put in Brown's category. He should be valued as a WR1 moving forward in the mid-second tier of elite receivers.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr.