Early in the season the biggest surprises are often players the casual fan never thought about in the preseason, or that we all thought were nearing the end of their career. At the same time the letdowns are generally players we couldn't see being anywhere near as bad as they are, who performed at a very high level in the previous year. As we move closer to the end of the season, sometimes these players boomerang in the other direction and we're left to figure out what's really well. We had a few of those things happen in week 11, let's examine them in this week's Believe It or Not.
Ray Rice is back as an elite running back after nine weeks of subpar performances.
Rice thrashed the Bears defense to the tune of 148 total yards and a score. While a large portion of his success can be credited to his 47 yard run, one of the best indicators that he may be a good play moving forward is the 28 touches he saw in comparison to just 10 for Bernard Pierce. This was the second time this season that Rice has seen 25 touches or more, and he's averaged more than 21 fantasy points in the two games.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Rice and the Ravens ground attack will come crashing back to earth this week against the Jets, and it's hard to see them fully recovering in 2013. As good as his effort was in week 11 Rice is still averaging less than .5 fantasy points per touch in 2013 and exactly 3 yards per carry. If you take out his 47 yard run against the Bears he averaged 3.5 yards per carry against a team that's struggled mightily with tackling. If you can sell Rice based on that performance, make a move.
Ryan Mathews is finally fulfilling the promise of season's past, and is a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Mathews 127 yard performance against the Dolphins was the third time he's topped 100 yards since week 6. Over that time frame he's the 17th best running back in standard scoring leagues on a per game basis. While many thought (and looked right in the first five weeks of 2013) that Mathews' value would be destroyed by the presence of Danny Woodhead, they've coexisted to form a formidable fantasy backfield.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Mathews' closing schedule features KC (x2), CIN, NYG, DEN, and OAK. Only one of those is a great matchup. Mathews is a borderline RB2 at best the rest of the way as long as Woodhead is continuing to take all of the work in the passing game and some of the work in the red zone. This Chargers offense may come crashing back to earth over the final six games and that would hurt both backs' value.
Reports of Marques Colston's demise were greatly exaggerated; he's still a very good receiver.
Colston struggled mightily through the first eight weeks of the season, but since the bye he's been back to his WR1 self. In the last two weeks he's totaled 12 grabs for 187 yards and a score. Colston looked slow and unable to separate earlier in the year, but he's finding success now and looks to be a good play moving forward. A receiver with his talent and a quarterback like Drew Brees can only be held down for so long.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Much like Mathews above, Colston's schedule is extremely difficult down the stretch. Yes, he gets Atlanta on Thursday night this week. After that he faces SEA, CAR (x2), STL, and TB. We're going to go back to hearing about how Colston looks slow and unable to separate, because it's true. He's lost a step and in only a flex play after this week.
We were too quick to jump on the Eddie Lacy bandwagon; he's still a RB2 at best.
There was a time not too long ago when Lacy looked like one of the safest bets in the league to post RB1 numbers down the stretch. We thought his matchups with Philadelphia and the Giants would only enhance his profile. In those two games he ran the ball 38 times for 100 yards. Ouch. Lacy can be a stud with Aaron Rodgers and the threat of a dangerous passing game. Without that, he's a very limited option.
Verdict: Believe it. Lacy vs. the 8 man box is not a good matchup for him or the Packers. This is not a statement about the long term viability of Lacy, because once Rodgers returns he should return to the ranks of RB1s. Unfortunately, by the time that happens your fantasy season could be over. If I was on the edge of the playoff race right now, I'd be looking to deal him for someone that could help push me over the top.
Delanie Walker has developed into a top 12 tight end.
This may be one of the biggest surprises of the 2013 fantasy season. Walker currently sits at TE11 in fantasy points in standard scoring leagues and he's been even better than that the last four weeks. Walker had been written off by most of the fantasy community heading into this season, but he's proven that he isn't dead yet.
Verdict: Believe it. Walker's long term value will depend on where the team goes at quarterback after this year, but as long as Ryan FItzpatrick is back there, you can count on Walker to produce. Fitzpatrick has played in five games this year, in those games Walker is averaging 8.4 fantasy points a game. Those numbers over the full season would put him at TE6, just behind Antonio Gates.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr