This is the final installment of Believe It or Not before the season starts, so I thought we'd look at the sum of this year's preseason stats and see if we can make any sense of them. As a rule preseason statistics are worth next to nothing. Third string running backs average 8 yards a carry against third string defenses all the time. Third string receivers outperform those starting in front of them solely because of who they're going up against. Those are not the kind of statistics I'm interested in. However, there are a couple of fantasy stars from the past that look like they may be ready to rise back into the ranks of the elite, there's a stud quarterback that looks lost on a terrible offense, and more. Let's take a look.
The Panthers offense is going to seriously struggle to move the football.
DeAngelo Williams is averaging a little over 2 yards per carry. Cam Newton is completing right at 50% of his passes. Steve Smith and Greg Olsen have been nearly invisible. Basically the entire first string offense has been a catastrophe in Carolina. It looks like the absence of Jonathan Stewart along with the age of Smith and Williams my really put a dent in Newton's value.
Verdict: Don't believe it. The Panthers offense without the threat of Cam Newton running the ball is a lot like most of the NFL offenses if you let opposing defenses know they aren't going to use their best weapon. When the games start counting, Newton will be more liberal with his legs and everything will begin to look much smoother. I do have concerns about Smith and Williams' age but those concerns likely won't be realized until the second half of the season.
Behind a rebuilt offensive line, Chris Johnson is back.
Johnson has averaged 7.8 yards per carry in the preseason and had at least one run of 17 yards or more in each of his preseason games. The Titans have given him about one game's worth of touches (23) and he's totaled 168 total yards and a score.
Verdict: Believe it. I've been banging the drum for Johnson all summer and this preseason has been quite the tease. He took his first carry of the preseason 58 yards to the house and has been impressive in all three of his preseason contests. The Titans threw a lot of resources at their line in the offseason and it looks like it's paid off. He's a steal at his current ADP of mid second round.
Kenbrell Thompkins is going to be a startable wide receiver on your fantasy team this season.
Thompkins has hauled in 13 passes for 142 yards this preseason including 8 for 116 in the team's third game against Detroit. He's the logical choice to fill the void at receiver for the Patriots, and has enough talent to turn into one of Tom Brady's favorite targets.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Thompkins is a great prospect, but the best case is that he has 2-3 games this year that make you wish you'd started him. Danny Amendola is going to see a ton of targets as long as he's healthy and Rob Gronkowski is going to gobble up his share as soon as he gets back on the field. Thompkins will be an unreliable option in 2013 that will be just as likely to go for 100 yards and a score as he will be to put up a goose egg.
Michael Vick is going to be an elite fantasy quarterback in Chip Kelly's system.
In just about four quarters of play in the preseason Vick as put up some ridiculous stats. He's completed better than 73% of his passes for 388 yards and two scores. He's run the ball 9 times for 73 yards. Kelly's up-tempo offense looks like it was built for Vick, and could lead to a resurgence.
Verdict: This one isn't simple enough for a simple yes or no. I believe that Vick is going to have some monster games in 2013. I'm talking 400 total yards and 3-4 touchdowns. What I don't believe is that he'll be able to maintain the level it takes to be an elite quarterback and I have serious doubts whether Vick can play 16 games in this system. 12 games of Vick could earn you the #1 seed just make sure you have a back up that's ready for the playoffs.
Ladarius Green is ready to take over for Antonio Gates in San Diego.
No tight end has had a better preseason than Green. He's caught 8 passes for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns. As Gates continues to age, the 23 year-old tight end from Louisiana-Lafayette looks ready to fill his shoes sooner rather than later. The Charges have very few options in the passing game and Green has been one of the few bright spots.
Verdict: Believe it. Yes, Green is ready to take over for Gates and he's talented enough to fill the legend's shoes. That's not to say the Green can be as good as Gates was, but he can certainly be as good as Gates is. The problem for Green is that Gates seems convinced he's still got it, and you're not benching Antonio Gates, especially with Phillip Rivers at quarterback. Unless Gates again struggles with injuries, Green's best hope is for success in two tight end sets.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr