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It seems like the closer we get to the regular season the more hype we get thrown at us. This week we heard that a quarterback that has been a two year failure has a long leash and that a running back competition that was thought to be over before camp started is still a tight race...and those weren't even the most audacious claims. Maybe it's coaches trying to motivate guys, maybe they're trying not to show their hand. Whatever it is, we need to sort through it in this week's Believe It or Not.
Rob Housler's lack of use in the preseason does not foreshadow how the team will use him once real games start.
Bruce Arians was pretty clear this week when he said, "We know he can run and catch. We’ve got a bunch of packages where we can feature him. He’s a given to me. I don’t need to see that part.” Housler is going to be a big part of the plan in Arizona, and the team doesn't need to see him perform in preseason to know that.
Verdict: Believe it. I've heard a lot of people mention that Bruce Arians has never had a ton of success with tight ends, but the never mention what Carson Palmer did with Brandon Myers last year. Larry Fitzgerald is going to get double teamed and teams will be more aware of Michael Floyd with all the hype he's gotten this offseason. I would not be surprised at all to see Housler make a huge leap forward this year and finish as an upper echelon TE2.
Blaine Gabbert has not only been named starting quarterback in Jacksonville, but he's also very safe in that position.
Head Coach Gus Bradley made a point to say that he doesn't consider himself a knee-jerk reaction kind of coach, and that he has confidence that Gabbert will hold on to the job. The Jaguars need to see if Gabbert has any chance of turning into their long term answer at quarterback and the only way to do that is let him play. His teammates all say he's taken a big step forward this year.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Gabbert has a very tough four game stretch coming up without Justin Blackmon and I have a hard time seeing him get through it as the starter. It's extremely rare for a quarterback to be as bad as Gabbert has been for his first two seasons and then turn into a good quarterback in year three. He has a lot of positive qualities, but his negative ones are not the kind that can be coached out of a player. Blaine Gabbert is not the quarterback of the future for the Jaguars and he shouldn't be the starting quarterback for very much of the present.
The running back situation in Miami is looking more and more like a RBBC.
Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman said the battle was "neck and neck" between Miller and Thomas. Miller was expected to run away with the competition as Thomas has shown virtually nothing in his two years in the league, but to this point it looks like a draw. The all-important third preseason game may declare the winner, and Miller doesn't have much margin for error.
Verdict: Believe it. This isn't so much about what Daniel Thomas has shown but about what Lamar Miller hasn't shown. We came into camp thinking it was his job to lose, but really it was his job to win and he hasn't snagged it. He could do it Saturday night against Tampa Bay, but he'd have to show more than he's shown so far this preseason. If he falters again, this could very well be a RBBC in week one. I still believe that eventually Miller's talent will beat Thomas out but the longer it goes like this the more you have to wonder if we were just overestimating Miller's talent.
After being traded to the 49ers Jon Baldwin has made a great first impression on Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick heaped the praise on Baldwin after their first practice together. "He's a big target, has good hands, is picking up the playbook quickly. So, looking forward to seeing what he can do out there." Baldwin was a bust in Kansas City, but that can be attributed to two years under questionable coaching with terrible quarterback play. Now that he's found himself with a great organization and a good quarterback he'll finally start to show some of his promise.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Baldwin looked like the best player in Chiefs' camp for multiple weeks last year but in game action he was absolutely abysmal. He is not good in small spaces and does not by any stretch of the imagination have great hands. He may be more successful in San Francisco, but it won't be to the degree that he's a fantasy asset. Kaepernick is being a good teammate here and nothing more. Until Baldwin's potential translates into something on the field you have no reason to own him.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr