There are few things as exciting as the beginning of football season for people that truly love football. The only problem of that is that these first few weeks are full hyperbole and overreactions. For a fantasy football player it can be a tumultuous time as you battle the excitement of the new season and try to digest all of the "information" available. Who's really in the "best shape of their life"? How many players are "primed for a career year" or "ready to take the next step"? At this time of year the answer is just about everyone. To help you sort through the noise, here is our first installment of Believe It or Not.
Matt Schaub has regained his mojo after his confidence was destroyed in 2013. Schaub's final season in Houston was a well-documented disaster but rumors out of training camp have him back to his old self. It's easy to forget that Schaub's only three years removed from back-to-back top ten seasons. Even 2012, his last game with 16 starts, he was a middle-of-the-pack QB2. There were a variety of things that went against Schaub but the bottom line is that a brutal four game stretch was just too much for him (and the team) to overcome. A fresh start in a new location was exactly what the doctor ordered.
Verdict: Believe it. Schaub isn't likely to ever return to QB1 territory on a consistent basis, but he's a lot better than he showed last year. Schaub will be without Andre Johnson this year but you can make the argument that he'll enjoy the deepest receiving corps of his career. James Jones, Rod Streater, Denarius Moore, and Andre Holmes provide a variety of options in the passing game. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew are both more than adequate pass-catching backs when they're healthy. Schaub should vanquish last year's demons with a season that looks much more like 2013 than 2013.
De'Anthony Thomas is everything the Chiefs had hoped that Dexter McCluster would be. It seemed a little bit curious when the Chiefs let McCluster walk only to acquire a player with a very similar skillset. It was even more curious when they labeled him a running back despite the team already having Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis and a dearth of talent at receiver. Well, Thomas has made the doubter look silly early in camp, running circles around the Chiefs defense. He's already the favorite to return punts and it looks like he'll be heavily involved in the offense as well. Thomas has game-breaking speed and an elusiveness that plays at any level.
Verdict: Don't believe it. It's quite possible that Thomas will make an impact on special teams or even break one big play in the offense, but it's very unlikely that he helps your fantasy team this year. At 5'9" and 174 lbs. you have to be extremely special to not only last in the NFL but actually make an impact in fantasy football. For every Darren Sproles and Danny Woodhead there are 20 Dexter McClusters and Dante Halls. Could Thomas be that special "one"? Absolutely, he could be, but you don't win consistently by making long shot bets on smallish players in their rookie year in a questionable offense.
Dexter McCluster in Tennessee is going to be much better than Dexter McCluster in Kansas City. While we're on the subject, there are plenty of stories out there about Tennessee's secret weapon, Dexter McCluster. Titans fans seem to think that McCluster was misused un Kansas City and he's expected to fill the Danny Woodhead role for Ken Whisenhunt's Titans. Woodhead had a career year under Whisenhunt in San Diego with 76 grabs, more than 1000 total yards, and eight touchdowns. McCluster's competition for touches in Titans backfield are rookie Bishop Sankey, Shonn Greene, and Jackie Battle. This should give him a chance to set some career highs of his own in 2014.
Verdict: Don't believe it. For all the reasons above and, more importantly, McCluster's history. On the practice field, especially without pads, McCluster can really look like a special player. In his first four years in the league he's flashed glimpses of that potential during games, but far too inconsistently. His hands are average at best and he's struggled to make defenders miss in space. He rarely advances past initial contact and at times shows baffling vision. If Whisenhunt can get him the ball consistently with 5-10 yards of open space he may turn into a useful flex player, but based on his history even that's a long shot.
One year after failing to live up to the hype, Tyler Eifert is earning a bigger piece of the pie in 2014. The reports out of Cincinnati regarding Eifert have been glowing, especially after his performance in the team's first scrimmage. Andy Dalton can't stop praising him and the coaching staff has kind words as well. Eifert failed to break out in 2013 largely because Jermaine Gresham wouldn't get out of the way. That hasn't been a problem so far in camp because Gresham hasn't been healthy enough to get on the field. By the time he is, it may not matter as well as Eifert is playing.
Verdict: Believe it. There's been a lot made about the Bengals wanting to run the ball more in 2014, but people forget they've actually run it a lot the last three years. What we may see this year is a little less reliance on A.J. Green as Dalton tries to limit interceptions by throwing more intermediate targets to Eifert and Giovani Bernard. There's little doubt that Eifert is the best play-making tight end on the roster and the extra time with Dalton this preseason seems to have formed a bond. If Dalton trusts him, there's no reason to think that Eifert won't have the breakout we all hoped for last year.