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This is our final installment of Believe It or Not for the preseason and this is when the rumors get the hottest. Players that had been left for dead suddenly look like they could actually crack the starting lineup. Players we thought were locks to start suddenly look like they might be useless in fantasy football. This makes it exceptionally hard to discern what's really going to happen once week one rolls around. Let's try to sort through some of the news from this week.
Knowshon Moreno is actually the back to own in Miami after his impressive performance against the Cowboys. Moreno shredded perhaps the worst defense in the league for 6.4 yards per carry in by far the most impressive Dolphins preseason performance this year. After struggling to get healthy and eventually being listed as fourth on the depth chart, Moreno's performance catapulted him into no worse than a share of a running back committee. As time wears on, Moreno will continue to outperform Lamar Miller and earn the lion's share of the carries.
Verdict: Believe it. The Dolphins went out and signed Moreno in the offseason because they weren't happy with Miller and Miller has done very little this preseason to change their minds. There's no reason to expect a season like Moreno's 2013 because the situation isn't near as good, but this isn't the first time he's been written off way too early. Even if Miller is still listed as the starter on the depth chart there's little reason to believe that Moreno won't take that designation early in the season.
Colin Kaepernick is going to struggle mightily if the 49ers don't get their offensive line woes resolved soon. Preseason stats are often useless but the 49ers first team offense looked horrible against San Diego. Their once dominant offensive line is having a hard time stopping anyone and Kaepernick himself does not look comfortable. If you're hoping this is the year he breaks out as a QB1, you'd better hope for a healthy Anthony Davis and a new contract for Alex Boone.
Verdict: Believe it. It isn't just that the offensive line is hurting Kaepernick's performance but they're also failing to get a push in the run game. With San Francisco trying to limit Kaepernick's rush attempts there just isn't a clear way for this team to move the ball down the field. His production and his health are both at risk until they start protecting him better. It could be a very rough start to the season in San Francisco.
The Patriots added Timothy Wright to fill the Aaron Hernandez role, giving him instant fantasy value. From a fantasy perspective Wright had an outstanding rookie campaign for a tight end. Wright posted a 51-571-5 in an offense that wasn't exactly prolific. Now he gets Tom Brady as his quarterback and a coach that has shown in the past how much he loves to use two tight end sets. Wright fits well into the Hernandez role as a "move TE" and could put up prolific numbers in New England.
Verdict: Don't believe it. Wright may be worth a waiver wire add or end of the draft flier, but he's no Hernandez. Wright did very little after the catch last year, one of the things Hernandez was best at. Also, it's not clear if that role even exists in New England in 2014, as they are talking about using more 2 RB formations. Wright was so successful last year because of a lack of options in Tampa Bay, not because of his skills. He's a fine second tight end, but until he learns to run block he won't see extensive time with the Patriots.
Bishop Sankey is buried on the Titans depth chart and seriously overvalued at his ADP. Sankey was all the rave when he was drafted by the Titans largely because of the perceived lack of competition for touches. Well, so far this preseason he's yet to take a snap with starter Jake Locker and he's behind both Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster on the depth chart. Sankey's being drafted as a borderline RB2 in fantasy but he may not even be the RB2 on his own team.
Verdict: Believe it. The plan in Tennessee right now seems to be for Greene and Sankey to split carries with McCluster getting most of the action in the passing game. This offense is not good enough to support a rookie running back with less than 50% of his team's touches out of the backfield. Sankey's path to being a fantasy starter includes another Greene injury, which is possible, but not something you should bet a 5th or 6th round pick on. Let someone else take Sankey and focus on rookie running backs like Carlos Hyde (10.2) and Andrew Williams (11.6), who can be had for a more reasonable cost.