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It's easy to brand Torrey Smith as the third-year breakout that didn't happen, but it isn't entirely true. Smith actually posted career highs in both receptions (65) and receiving yards (1,128) and would have had an outstanding year if not for the incredible drop in his TD rate. In his first two years in the league, Smith caught 15 touchdowns on 224 targets. Last year he had just 4 scores despite a career-high 137 targets. If his TD rate had just remained equal to what it had been he would have had 9 touchdowns and finished the season at WR13 in standard leagues. Can you imagine how much different the expectations would now been if that was the case?
The main reason for the drop in Smith's touchdowns was the fact that he played on a team that didn't score very often. The Ravens went from Super Bowl Champions to an 8-8 record in just one year and that was largely on the offense. The loss of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta played a huge role, but the running game also fell off a cliff. The team as a whole averaged nearly a touchdown less per game and struggled to run block or protect Joe Flacco. Anemic would be accurate in assessing their production, but things should be better in 2014.
The acquisitions of Steve Smith and Owen Daniels aren't headline makers, but along with the return of Dennis Pitta they do something very important for the offense. The Ravens now have genuine threats in the short passing game, and the weapons to be flexible in their sets which new OC Gary Kubiak will undoubtedly take advantage of. Just as importantly, the team has shored up the offensive line after surrendering a 26% increase in sacks last year. This should help them move the ball on the ground and protect Flacco long enough for Smith to get behind the defense in Kubiak's play-action heavy offense.
On the flip side, this improved offense may cost Smith some targets. Despite the fact that Flacco threw 614 passes last year, no one on the roster besides Smith had more than 82 targets. It's a very good bet that the Ravens are going to throw less in 2014, and that Dennis Pitta is going to have close to 100 targets. On the other hand, Gary Kubiak loved to force the ball to Andre Johnson when he was in Houston. Smith is no Johnson, but he's the undisputed WR1 on this team. Even if he does see a small reduction in targets, his touchdowns should more than make up for it.
Smith's production in 2013 should be looked at as his floor. At 25 years old Smith is still in his prime and will still be able to get behind the defense at will. What's different after last year is that he's now a more polished route runner and more complete receiver. 2013 may have been difficult for Ravens' fans to stomach, but it went a long way towards the development of their young receiver. He was forced to be something more than a deep receiver and that will pay dividends now that the team has added more weapons.
In 2013 Smith saw an increase in targets, but still caught a higher percentage of those targets. That caused a 33% increase in receptions, but he still averaged an outstanding 17.4 yards per reception. Both of those facts are impressive, especially when you consider that Smith did this on such a poor offensive team. If the Ravens manage to be an even average offensive team, Smith could be a borderline WR1, or better. Many are projecting that his targets will go down with all of the weapons around him, and that's possible, but more scoring opportunities and longer drives may make that irrelevant.
POSITIVES
- Smith is an elite deep threat that should see his touchdowns rebound in 2014.
- The improvements Smith was forced to make in the intermediate game will pay dividends on a better offense.
- At 25 years old, and entering his 4th year in the league, Smith is in the prime of his career and very well may still be improving.
NEGATIVES
- For all the improvements the Ravens have made there's still no guarantee that this is an above average offense in 2014.
- The Ravens will have a lot more weapons this year and that could cut into Smith's targets.
- The best part of Smith's game (the deep ball) is still dependent on the rest of the team doing their job.
PROJECTIONS
REC | REC YDS | REC TD | |
Heath Cummings' Projections | 68 | 1156 | 10 |
David Dodds' Projections | 55 | 902 | 6 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
With Torrey Smith you're getting an elite deep threat that made major strides in the intermediate game. He's finished as a low level WR2 each of his first three seasons in the league, but he did so in a far different manner last year. The only way you can predict Smith to be worse that he was last year is to predict that he loses targets/receptions/yards to the newcomers and doesn't see his touchdown rate bounce back. His ceiling still hasn't been realized, but it pretty clearly looks to be that of a WR1. It's strange to say for a deep threat like he Smith, but he may be one of the more reliable WR2s in this year's draft. His value in standard leagues (ADP: WR24) is better than his value in in PPR (WR27) but both are good values for a young receiver with a high ceiling and high floor.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Jamison Henley at ESPN wrote:
Smith's 1,128 yards receiving last season fell 74 yards short of setting a Ravens single-season record. He looked like he was on his way to establishing himself as a No. 1 receiver in this league through the first five games of 2013, ranking first in the AFC and third in the NFL with 556 yards receiving. But he disappeared in the second half of the season. In his final eight games, Smith produced 499 yards receiving, which ranked 29th in the league over that span.
Read more from Jamison here.
Larry Hartstein at CBSSports wrote:
He has yet to finish lower than a WR2. That's his floor. His ceiling? Low-end WR1.
Torrey Smith should be going higher than his current average draft position -- 25th WR on MyFantasyLeague.com, 26th WR on FantasyFootballCalculator.com. He offers great value as a Round 6 pick almost guaranteed to have his best year yet.
I'd take him over DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendall Wright and Percy Harvin.
Smith is excited about Kubiak's arrival. He's picking up the system quickly.
Read more from Larry here.