The script was flipped on the career of Julius Thomas in 2013. It's easy to forget now, but 2013 was actually Thomas' third in the league and the first two were uneventful to say the least. After being drafted in the 4th round out of Portland State, Thomas missed 3/4 of his rookie year with an ankle injury that required surgery. His sophomore season was very similar, with Thomas again only appearing in four games. Through his first two NFL seasons Thomas had appeared in 8 games, garnered 7 targets, and caught exactly 1 pass for 5 yards. Of course, that all changed in 2013.
Last year Thomas had an incredibly efficient 14 game season and finished as the TE2 in PPR formats behind only Jimmy Graham. Thomas' ranking came largely on the back of his 12 touchdowns, which were the third most amongst NFL tight ends. It's easy to think that a third-year player with one career catch posting 12 touchdowns in year three is an anomaly, and there may be at least a little truth to that. Here's the history of all the tight ends aged 25 or younger with at least 10 touchdowns in a season.
Player | Year | Exp. | Career TDs | Current TDs | Next Year TDs |
Tony Gonzalez | 1999 | 3rd Year | 4 | 11 | 9 |
Antonio Gates | 2004 | 2nd Year | 2 | 13 | 10 |
Antonio Gates | 2005 | 3rd Year | 15 | 10 | 9 |
Vernon Davis | 2009 | 4th Year | 9 | 13 | 7 |
Rob Gronkowski | 2010 | Rookie | 0 | 10 | 17 |
Rob Gronkowski | 2011 | 2nd Year | 10 | 17 | 11 |
Jimmy Graham | 2011 | 2nd Year | 5 | 11 | 9 |
Rob Gronkowski | 2012 | 3rd Year | 27 | 11 | 4 |
Julius Thomas | 2013 | 3rd Year | 0 | 12 | ?? |
The good news for Thomas is that he's in some pretty elite company. No tight end has ever had as many touchdowns at 25 or younger and then fallen off the map. The only slight negative is that every tight end besides Gronkowski saw a decline their next year in touchdown production the following year. It's very reasonable to expect Thomas to be a force for years to come, but counting on double digit TDs this year may be foolish. Much like the offense that produced him, a small regression should be expected.
It's no secret that Thomas was the beneficiary of playing with arguably the greatest quarterback of all time during his greatest season. The Broncos offense last year scored an absurd amount of points and had more weapons than any defense (outside of Seattle) could handle. Even with the departure of Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno, they are still expected to be the best offense in the NFL because they still have Peyton Manning. Manning picks defenses apart like no quarterback we've ever seen, and that was a huge part of Thomas' success in 2013. The consensus is that Peyton Manning has to regress at least a little closer to his career norms in 2014. That regression will have an effect on Thomas.
Last year Thomas saw 90 targets, or about 13% of the Broncos' total targets. With the loss of Decker and Moreno there are 210 targets up for grabs, but Emmanuel Sanders, Montee Ball, and Cody Lattimer are sure to gobble up a large portion of them. There's also a line of thinking that the Broncos would like to cut down on Manning's attempts this year and maybe even run the ball more. It seems very likely that Thomas has earned a bigger share of the targets, so even if the pie is going to shrink, 6-7 targets a game still seems reasonable. If that's the case, the biggest area Thomas could improve on last year's number would be to play 16 games for the first time in his career.
Thomas, like a lot of tight ends, has struggled with injuries early in his career. There have been countless debates on the value of Rob Gronkowski because of his injury history, but what is often left out is that most of the extremely talented young tight ends in the league have had issues with injuries. Julius Thomas is no different, though a lot of his issues are overlooked because they happened before he burst onto the scene. Thomas has appeared in 22 out of 48 possible games and a large portion of those missed games are because of ankle injuries. An ankle injury cost him 2 games in 2013, the third consecutive year that he's had troubles in that area. These concerns may not be enough to downgrade Thomas, but he should be elevated over other tight ends as a healthy alternative.
POSITIVES
- Thomas is a part of what is expected to once again be the best passing offense in the NFL.
- The departure of Eric Decker should open up more targets for Thomas.
- At 26 years old with only 22 games of experience there's reason to expect improvement in 2014.
NEGATIVES
- The entire Broncos offense is due for at least a small regression in 2014, and that includes Thomas' touchdown rate.
- His history of ankle injuries makes it difficult to project him for a 16 game season.
PROJECTIONS
REC | REC YDS | REC TD | |
Heath Cummings' Projections | 70 | 840 | 9 |
David Dodds' Projections | 70 | 840 | 10 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
There's little disagreement that Thomas is one of the top four tight ends heading into 2014 but where he falls in that range is up for debate. A slight uptick in receptions and yardage is to be expected as Thomas has proven his worth to Peyton Manning and Eric Decker is no longer in the equation. It's unrealistic to expect another 12 touchdowns from Thomas, and that's what keeps him out of the Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski tier. Also, like Gronkowski, you have to factor in the injury risk. For Thomas that risk is as high as any tight end currently in the top five. He and Jordan Cameron are essentially in the second tier of TE1s heading into the year but Thomas' mid-third round price tag seems a little too rich.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Leo Howell at NumberFire wrote:
So with regression likely ahead of Peyton Manning (you can read more about that here), and the general unsustainability of an offense producing 55 passing touchdowns, the odds aren't in favor of Thomas returning to his double-digit touchdown ways next season without quite a bit of improvement and a serious increase in volume.
Read more from Leo here.
Dan Schneier at Pro Football Focus wrote:
Thomas’ reliability as a pass catcher will likely persuade Manning to feature him more. In 2013, Thomas finished with the fifth-best drop rate among all tight ends who played 50% of their team’s snaps or more. He dropped just four out of 69 passes deemed catchable by our game charters, finishing with just a 5.88 percent drop rate.
Thomas’ unique hand size makes him a great bet to improve on that number. His 10 1/4-inch hands place him in the 71st percentile among all tight ends who have entered the draft dating back to 199, according to Mock Draftable.
Read more from Dan here.