Last offseason the Patriots brought in Danny Amendola to replace Wes Welker...it turns out they had his replacement on the roster all along. Edelman posted career highs in receptions (105), receiving yards (1056) and touchdowns (6) while playing 16 games for the first time in his career. With a cast of inconsistent rookies and of the oft-injured Amendola around him, Edelman quickly became Tom Brady's most trusted weapon, averaging nearly 10 targets per game. The Patriots rewarded him this offseason with a four year deal, cementing Edelman's spot atop the Patriots WR depth chart. The development of one of last year's rookies could cut into his targets, but for now he's still the only option in New England you can count on being healthy and running the right route...kind of.
The reason the team brought in Amendola had as much to do with Edelman's injury history as anything. In his first four years in the league Edelman missed a full season's worth of games due to a variety of ailments. He's had concussions (2), broken hands (2), sprained ankles (3), a fractured foot, and a fractured forearm. For a guy that goes over the middle on a high percentage of his routes it's both not surprising and a little concerning. It's hard to project 16 games from a player that plays the game the way Edelman does and has already missed a considerable amount of time. Of course those injuries helped build in the discount that made Edelman a steal in 2013.
Edelman's breakout campaign in 2014 was nearly unprecedented. He was only the third receiver in NFL history to post 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards after four years in the league without reaching either mark. The first to do it was Art Monk and the second was Terance Mathis. Monk went on to have a Hall of Fame career while Mathis had a long successful career with the Falcons. While it's generally bad business to bet on a player after his career year, there's good reason to believe that Edelman's success wasn't a fluke. His success came because of a major increase in targets and opportunity. It's easy to forget that just two years ago this offense had Wes Welker, a healthy Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez demanding 300+ targets between them. Edelman's slow start to his career wasn't so much an indictment of him as the lack of opportunity in New England. What's important is that Edelman's success didn't come because on a huge spike in efficiency that isn't repeatable. Take a look:
Targets | Rec | Catch % | Yards | Y/R | TD | TD % | |
'09-'12 | 113 | 69 | 61% | 814 | 11.8 | 4 | 5.8% |
2013 | 151 | 105 | 69% | 1056 | 10.1 | 6 | 5.7% |
There was a pretty good jump in Edelman's catch rate but other than he was producing at about the same level he always has, just with a hug spike in opportunity. The real question about his future then becomes how likely that opportunity is to hold steady.
The Patriots pass catching situation is no less confusing than it was last offseason. The biggest piece of this puzzle is still Rob Gronkowski, and we still have very little idea what's going on with him. The cryptic updates about his health are likely to continue throughout the summer and training camp. If Gronkowski plays 16 games this year that could put a serious dent in Edelman's production. Last year Edelman averaged 4 less targets, 4 less catches, and 25 less yards per game when Gronkowski was on the field. Of course, that information would be much more helpful if we knew how often Gronkwoski was going to be on the field in 2014. Danny Amendola is another player whose health is always in question, but his presence had a much smaller impact on Edelman's performance last year.
What may be even more befuddling is what we can expect from the other receivers on the roster. Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson were a pair of maddeningly inconsistent receivers that most think have more natural ability than Edelman. To add to their frustration the Patriots added Brandon LaFell, who has made a career of being maddeningly inconsistent. The problem for Edelman is that if any of these receievers take a major step forward that too will cut into his targets.
POSITIVES
- Last year Edelman became the most reliable receiver that Tom Brady has. Brady isn't likely to forget that because one of the young receivers has a really good camp, meaning Edelman should at least start the year as his number one target.
- Edelman's ability to succeed in the short passing game makes him a very valuable asset in PPR leagues.
- Though he's shown some sign of decline, Brady is still one of the top quarterbacks in the league, a bonus for a receiver that counts on volume.
NEGATIVES
- Edelman's value could be negatively impacted by a healthy Rob Gronkowski or the development of one of the team's young wide receivers.
- Edelman's lack of big play ability means that he counts on volume for production.
- Edelman himself has a long injury history that isn't erased by one healthy year in 2013.
Projections
REC | RECYD | RECTD | RSHYD | RSHTD | |
Heath Cummings | 88 | 968 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
David Dodds | 78 | 811 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
Edelman is one of the more difficult players for me to project because so much of his projection involves elements out of his control. If Gronkowski again struggles with injuries and none of the young receivers step up he could legitimately be a WR1 in PPR leagues. If Gronkowski stays healthy and one or more of the young receivers step up he could struggle to post WR3 numbers. That's a huge range of outcomes and we aren't even talking about Edelman's game. The most likely outcome seems to be a small step back from 2013 which leads to borderline WR2 numbers in PPR leagues. With a player this risky the rest of your roster should have an impact on how comfortable you feel selecting him.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Kyle Soppe at Pro Football Focus wrote:
Edelman’s 2013 numbers were outstanding (105 catches for 1,056 yards and 6 touchdowns), but moving forward, I am most encouraged by the fashion in which he ended last season. Following New England’s disappointing Week 11 loss to Carolina, Edelman was on the field much more often (94.1 percent of snaps, up from 80.8 percent over the first nine weeks) and responded with elite fantasy production (69 catches for 729 yards and five touchdowns in eight games).
Read more from Kyle here.
Nick Underhill at masslive.com wrote:
Edelman re-upped with the Pats this offseason, so there is no question that he will remain one of the key pieces of the offense moving forward. The only question is if he will continue to produce the same level. With Gronkowski and Amendola healthy, the addition of Brandon LaFell, and last year’s rookies maturing into the offense, Edelman might not see the same number of targets as last season.
Read more from Nick here.