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Jordy Nelson isn't often viewed as one of the elite receivers in the league, but that's more on us than him. Nelson is one of three receivers since 2011 with at least 3,000 yards receiving and 30 touchdowns. You might think that's because of health and consistency, but you'd be forgetting that he missed 4 games in 2012 due to injury and played 7 games over the past three years without Aaron Rodgers. Sure, that's partly due to Nelson's 15 touchdown barrage touchdown barrage three years ago. But the narrative that Nelson's 2011 was the anomaly is completely incorrect. Let's take a look at Nelson on a per game basis when he and Aaron Rodgers are both on the field over the last three years:
REC/G | REC YDS/G | TD/G | FP/G | |
2011 | 5.8 | 73.4 | 0.8 | 12.1 |
2012 | 4.8 | 73.5 | 0.7 | 11.6 |
2013 | 6.1 | 101.2 | 0.75 | 14.6 |
As you can see, 2014 was actually Nelson's best with Rodgers. He and Rodgers have been remarkably consistent in the touchdown department since 2011, right at a 12 TD pace each of the last three years. Of course, that was with Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, and James Jones in tow. With all three gone, Nelson could quite possibly see even more red zone targets.
Nelson plays with an elite quarterback that loves to throw the ball his way. Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the game since he took over for Brett Favre in 2008. Rodgers posted 5 straight top-2 seasons before injuries derailed that streak in 2013. Even with the arrival of Eddie Lacy and a steady running game, Rodgers remained an elite fantasy producer when he was on the field. With all of the other options at his disposal, Aaron Rodgers loves to throw the ball Jordy Nelson's way. Nelson saw almost 9 targets per game when Rodgers was under center and was more efficient than anyone with those targets. Nelson was the only receiver in 2013 with at least 100 targets to average more than 15 yards per reception and catch more than 2/3 of his targets. What is even more impressive about those number is that Nelson played nearly half of the year without Rodgers.
With the Packers question marks at tight end and the loss of James Jones it's more likely that Nelson will see his targets go up than down in 2014. There's a notion out there are the Packers will give the ball more to Lacy and throw the ball more to a healthy Randall Cobb, cutting into Nelson's value. One problem with that is that Lacy saw 319 touches as a rookie in only 15 games. It's hard to see that number growing exponentially. A bigger problem is that Nelson was actually better when Cobb was in the lineup last year, and the Packers have lost a key target. Jones particularly, received the second most targets on the team last year with 93. A healthy Cobb will eat up some of those targets but it's not unrealistic that Nelson could see his targets baloon to the 140 range (his pace when Rodgers was healthy). As you look at Nelson's fantasy points per target over the past three season, that would be huge:
TARGETS | FP | FP/Target | Projected w/ 140 targets | Proj. Finish | |
2011 | 102 | 216.3 | 2.12 | 296.8 | WR1 |
2012 | 86 | 116.5 | 1.35 | 189 | WR8 |
2013 | 127 | 179.4 | 1.41 | 197.4 | WR6 |
There's no guarantee that Nelson gets 140 targets next year but with a three year sample size that efficiency is all but a given. The great thing about Nelson is that barring injury he's about as safe as any wide receiver can be. Since week 12 in 2012 he's scored at least 13 PPR fantasy points in every game that he and Aaron Rodgers have started and finished. It's not often that you can score a high-upside receiver with an equally high floor in the late second round, but that's exactly what Nelson is.
POSITIVES
- When Nelson and Rodgers are on the field together they are an elite QB-WR combo.
- Nelson is both a high-target receiver and a highly efficient receiver.
- The loss of James Jones should help guarantee that Nelson doesn't see a decrease in targets.
NEGATIVES
- The emergence of Eddie Lacy threatens to make the Packers a more run-dominant team.
- Rodgers and Nelson have missed a combined 12 games in the last two years.
PROJECTIONS
REC | REC YDS | REC TD | |
Heath Cummings' Projections | 91 | 1365 | 12 |
David Dodds' Projections | 75 | 1185 | 10 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
If you've read this far, or looked at our rankings, you know that we think that Nelson is a very solid pick as a WR1 in any format. There is some concern about the emergence of Lacy and the running game, but that running game was pretty solid last year. There's also a line of thought that Randall Cobb could steal some of Nelson's targets. That makes a little sense until you see that Nelson was all-world (37-645-4) in the 6 games that Cobb played last year. Nelson is being drafted (25th overall WR9) at pretty close to his non-injury floor. He's a highly efficient receiver with an elite quarterback that should see all the targets he can handle. You should feel as safe hitching your wagon to him as a WR1 as you do almost any wide receiver available.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Bryan Stauffer at NumberFire wrote:
Nelson was without a doubt a top-five wide receiver in terms of efficiency last year, giving him his second consecutive season with at least a 0.92 Reception NEP per target. Although he finished with a fewer targets and receptions last season because of injury, he was still able to maintain a superior level of efficiency with a 0.93 Rec. NEP/Target. And that was without Aaron Rodgers for part of the season.
Read more from Bryan here.
Kyle Soppe at Pro Football Focus wriote:
Did you know that he is nearly the exact same receiver as Jeffery (6’3” 217 pounds as compared to 6’3” 216 pounds)? With James Jones no longer in town, Nelson (16.44 yards per catch since the beginning of 2011) is the primary deep threat in an explosive offense. Aaron Rodgers has been the starting quarterback in Green Bay since 2008, and in every one of those seasons a Packer receiver has finished in the Top 10 in PFF’s WR Rating (three straight seasons with a Top 6 finisher). Nelson notched seven touchdowns in the eight games that Rodgers started and finished.
Read more from Kyle here.