The last three years Frank Gore has been the Groundhog Day of fantasy football. In April, the 49ers draft a running back that everyone gets way too excited about. Throughout the summer the hype grows for the rookie running back and Gore's ADP suffers. In camp there's plenty of speculation about a committee approach due to the new talent and Gore's age. The season starts, Gore earns between 280-300 touches and finishes between RB11-RB13. From Kendall Hunter, to LaMichael James (and now Carlos Hyde) there's always been someone that was about to cut into Gore's production. But he just keeps producing.
It's easy to see why everyone gets so excited about the next young back in San Francisco, it's an outstanding situation. The 49ers are a run-heavy team, with a great defense and an even better offensive line. More importantly, Jim Harbaugh has never really gone to the RBBC approach that everyone keeps expecting him to. This is the type of situation that fantasy owners dream about, yet somehow they keep missing that there's already a back in that situation...Frank Gore. Lately, the main reason they're ignoring him is age discrimination.
Frank Gore is a 31 year-old running back with more than 2500 touches in his career. History tells us it's time for him to hit the wall, of course history told us the same thing last year. Gore was one of three running backs (Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles) over 30 to finish amongst the top 24 running backs in 2013. It was the first time since 2009 that more than one back that old was a RB2 or better. As he heads into 2014, he's on a three year streak with at least 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns. Only 4 backs have ever reached those marks at the age of 31.
YEAR | RSH YDS | RSH TD | |
Walter Payton | 1985 | 1551 | 9 |
Emmitt Smith | 2000 | 1203 | 9 |
Curtis Martin | 2004 | 1697 | 12 |
Thomas Jones | 2009 | 1402 | 14 |
It's not surprising that it's very rare for a back Gore's age to reach this level of success but it does show that you don't necessarily have to be one of the greatest backs of all-time to have success in your 30s. The success of Jackson recently only further proves the point.
Gore is still the lead back heading into 2014, but his situation is a little different. With injuries to Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James Gore has two realistic challengers for carries, and they're both essentially rookies. Marcus Lattimore missed all of last year recovering from a horrendous leg injury and still isn't ready for live action. Hyde was the team's second round pick out of Ohio State that is the most likely player to eventually replace Gore. Hyde is a bruising runner that should eventually thrive in the 49ers ground and pound environment. This could lead to a shift in Gore's workload.
YEAR | RSH/G | RSH YD/G | REC/G | REC YD/G |
2008-2010 | 17.2 | 77.2 | 3.6 | 31.6 |
2011 | 17.6 | 75.7 | 1.1 | 7.1 |
2012 | 16.2 | 75.8 | 1.8 | 14.6 |
2013 | 17.3 | 70.5 | 1 | 8.8 |
While Hunter and James were change of pace backs that took some of the passing downs off of Gore's plate, Hyde is more of a clone that may just need time to develop. This provides both a positive and negative. The positive is that if Hunter and James miss extended time Gore could once get be more involved in the passing game. The negative is that if Hyde is better than Gore he could take the lead role at some point this year, and really damage Gore's value. This is the time in Gore's career where he's more likely to see a significant decline in skills, and if that happens the 49ers now have at least one back ready to fill the role he's excelled in.
POSITIVES
- Gore has shown little sign of his age to this point, and greatly outperformed his ADP the past two years.
- The 49ers still have the perfect set up for a running back with a great offensive line, run-heavy attack, and solid defense.
- Two injuries in camp have left the 49ers suddenly thin in the backfield.
NEGATIVES
- At 31 years old it's increasingly likely that Gore's skills and production begin to taper off.
- The 49ers have at least one rookie running back with the skillset to supplant Gore if he stumbles.
PROJECTIONS
RSH | RSH YDS | RSH TD | REC | REC YDS | REC TD | |
Heath Cummings' Projections | 240 | 960 | 7 | 30 | 270 | 1 |
David Dodds' Projections | 210 | 872 | 8 | 22 | 161 | 1 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
The injuries to Hunter and James could very well lead to a resurgence in the passing game for Gore. The resurgence may not be enough to make up for the presence of Hyde or the possible decline in Gore's skills. It's really hard to bet on a 31 year-old running back as your RB2, and that's why we have Gore as a borderline RB2/3. His ceiling is his production over the past three years, which is as good as most running backs in this tier. The problem is that Gore's floor is much lower because of his age and the other options in San Francisco. His ADP is just about right as the most likely outcome has him finishing at the very bottom of the RB2s. He's a very good option there if you decide to load up on RB2 early and land him as your RB3.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Anthony Olivetti at Football.com wrote:
At his current price tag Gore isn’t too much of a risk. I looked at ADP date from MyFantasyLeague and Yahoo, he averages 94.91 and 57.60 respectively. Those obviously have a very large gap but what’s more important is how many running backs go off the board ahead of him. In MFL leagues Gore is the 28th back selected and in Yahoo leagues he’s the 24th, so it’s much more similar than it at first appears. In either case you’re essentially selecting him as your third back. Even at 31, with a crowded backfield, Gore is a solid bet as your RB3. Gore will no doubt lose some carries, but even if he only carries it 14-15 times per game he’ll still come close to 1,000 yards rushing if he maintains the same yards per carry average from last season. And he still scores touchdowns, so 1,000 yards and eight or nine scores is more than enough from your third running back.
Read more from Anthony here.
Eli Mack at FFToday wrote:
It appears Gore’s replacement is being groomed; we simply don’t know who that will be. Again, Gore is a productive fantasy option. His presence on this list is only in response to the logjam at the position and the team’s apparent desire to get younger. It’s probably a safe bet to assume Gore won’t get the 276 carries he saw in 2013, thus making him a prime candidate to see a swift decline in his fantasy stock.
Read more from Eli here.