A lot of people that avoided Arian Foster last year were more lucky than good. The narrative heading into last year was that Foster was an overused back that was on the downside of his career. The number most commonly cited as proof was his declining YPC. Foster slipped from 5.0 YPC in 2010 to 4.4 in 2011 all the way down to 4.0 in 2012. Most of the anti-Foster crowd expected that slide to continue and Ben Tate to get a larger piece of the workload. For the first six games of 2013 that looked completely foolish as Foster was once again one of the best backs in the game.
Before his season ending injury Foster ranked second in the NFL in rushing yardage and had seen his YPC bounce back to 4.5. Despite an enormous drop in touchdowns, Foster was a solid RB1 from week 1-6.
| RSH YDS/G | RSH YPC | REC/G | REC YDS/G | TD/G | |
| 2010 | 100.9 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 37.8 | 1.1 |
| 2011 | 94.2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 47.5 | 0.75 |
| 2012 | 88.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 13.6 | 1.1 |
| 2013 W 1-6 | 88.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 30.5 | 0.33 |
As shown in the chart above Foster bounced back in nearly every way in 2013 except for touchdowns. This is largely because 3 of these 6 games came against the NFC West, and the Texans had trouble scoring as a team. Perhaps the most encouraging stat outside of Foster's YPC last year was that he got involved in the passing game again.
From 2010-2011 Foster caught 119 passes for more than 1200 yards. He is excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield and doing something with it when he does. This obviously adds a lot of value in PPR leagues but it also helps immensely that he doesn't need to come out of the game on obvious passing downs. The Texans have already talked about their plans for Foster in the passing game, which gives us reason to hope that he'll be the dual threat back he was early in his career. Of course, all of those snaps lead to a lot more opportunities to get hurt.
After years of playing nicked up, Foster finally succumbed to a season-ending injury last year. Foster's back surgery is not something to be ignored, but there's also solid evidence that it can be overcome. This was by no means the first injury of his career, but it's worth noting that he only missed three games from 2010-2012 despite a variety of ailments. The bigger concern for many may be that he's 28 years old. For healthy running backs 28 is generally looked at as the beginning of the end, for one coming off of a back surgery it could be an extra challenge.
From 2004-2012 between 25-30% of the top 24 running backs each year were 28 or older. Last year that number spiked to over 42%. While that is probably more anomaly than anything else, it's worth noting that Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte didn't look to be slowing down last year. Foster has been notorious for his work ethic and nutritional prowess, so if anyone is going to disprove age and injury theories it would be a guy like him. Luckily for him, he should get plenty of opportunity to do that in Houston this year.
Unlike many backs around the league, touches should not be hard to come by for Foster. The Texans spent this past offseason building a young exciting defense and settling at quarterback. What that should mean is a run-heavy offense that relies on its defense to win low-scoring battles. The Texans defense, led by J.J. Watt, has the potential to be an elite unit. This is both a positive and a negative for Foster. On the positive side, there should be plenty of carries to go around. On the negative side, his 2013 touchdown slump could continue. It's difficult to see the Texans getting too loose through the air with Ryan Fitzpatrick, even if they have a pair of prolific receivers. That could lead to a return of the 500+ rush attempts they had in 2011 and 2012. Foster is no stranger to high volume, he totaled 390+ touches in 2010 and 2012. If he gets to even 90% of that he will be an upper echelon RB1.
POSITIVES
- Foster is a true dual threat back that picks up yards on the ground and in the air.
- The Texans quarterback situation should lend itself to a high volume of rush attempts.
- Foster bounced back to be once of the best backs in the league before his back injury in 2013.
NEGATIVES
- By September he'll be a 28 year-old running back coming off of back surgery.
- The Texans lack of a quarterback could limit scoring opportunities.
PROJECTIONS
| RSH | RSH YDS | RSH TD | REC | REC YDS | REC TD | |
| Heath Cummings' Projections | 280 | 1204 | 7 | 45 | 360 | 1 |
| David Dodds' Projections | 240 | 1008 | 8 | 47 | 371 | 2 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
There are a wide range of outcomes when it comes to a running back with Foster's talents, injuries, and age. He's in a great situation to see a ton of carries (and targets) as long as he can stay healthy. From what we've seen in the past we can only assume that if he plays 16 games he's going to be a very productive RB1 with the volume he's likely to see. The Texans quarterback situation does concern me from a touchdown standpoint, but I think their defense will keep them in enough games to keep them running. There's certainly a little more risk because of Foster's age but I'd be thrilled to land him in the early second where he's currently being drafted.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Leo Howell at NumberFire wrote:
You've been living under a rock if you're not aware of the risk involved in drafting Arian Foster for your fantasy football team. The oft-injured Texans tailback is still one of the most talented in the league, but there's a lot counting against him as he approaches the 2014 season.
Gary Kubiak is gone, Foster is getting older, and he'll be playing in a new scheme with a new quarterback for the first time in his NFL career (apart from Matt Schaub's injury and horrible play-related spells on the sideline, of course). So it's no surprise that Foster is one of the riskiest players in the league when it comes to fantasy.
Read more from Leo here.
Kenny Cook at NumberFire wrote:
With Bill O’Brien coming on as the team’s head coach this year, many reports have surfaced about Foster’s role in the offense. O’Brien was quoted as saying Foster will be a major factor in the Texans’ offense, not exclusively in the running game. He believes Foster can fill in the third-down role, as former Patriots’ running backs Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk did during his tenure as coordinator.
If O'Brien's confidence remains, Foster will have the opportunity to bounce back as an elite three-down back. Then again, this means a potential increase in touches, which could prove as detrimental to his overall success in reaching that designation among the elites.
Read more from Kenny here.
