On the rollercoaster that has been Alex Smith's career, perception has rarely matched reality. Smith struggled mightily at times in his first five seasons in San Francisco as he bounced from one offensive system to another. While Smith was viewed as an athletic young quarterback he rarely ran the ball and never topped 150 rushing yards once. In 2011 Jim Harbaugh took over and Smith became a new man. The team started winning, Smith started completing a higher percentage of his passes, and he stopped throwing so many interceptions. Of course, by that point the team had already draft Colin Kaepernick, and just a year later Kaepernick would become Harbaugh's choice as the QB1 after a stellar start by Smith. In 2013 he joined the Chiefs and in some ways was very successful, most notably on the ground. Smith was largely a game manager last year as the team got off to a 9-0 start largely behind a Herculean defensive effort. Now the question becomes, which Smith we can expect. First let's take a look at the three stages of Smith's career:
COMP % | PASS YD/G | Y/A | TD % | INT % | RUSH YD/G | Rush TD/Year | |
SF pre-Harbaugh | 57.1% | 174 | 6.2 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 8 | 0.4 |
SF w/ Harbaugh | 64.3% | 188 | 7.4 | 4.5% | 1.5% | 12 | 1 |
Kansas City | 60.6% | 221 | 6.5 | 4.5% | 1.4% | 28 | 1 |
As you can see above, the biggest change in 2013 was that Alex Smith became a true dual-threat quarterback. It's extremely rare, but as a 29 year-old quarterback Smith had more rushing yards last year than he had in his previous four seasons combined. Some of these came on designed runs in Andy Reid's offense (no doubt influenced by consultant Chris Ault) but a lot also came on scrambles when no one was open. While this was a real positive for Smith's fantasy value, it also gives good reason to expect some regression in 2014. Since 1990 only five quarterbacks have run for 400+ yards in a season at 30 years of age or older.
Smith probably won't match his career high 76 rush attempts from last season, but even if he does his yardage total will still likely fall. Last year Reid and Ault came up with some surprising well-designed quarterback runs for Smith that led to easy yardage. Also, while the book on Smith certainly contained the word athletic, he wasn't known as a threat to run successfully on such a consistent basis when flushed from the pocket. Those factors led to 5.67 YPC, which put Smith in the range of Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick. Defenses have had a year to study what the Chiefs did on offense last year and they won't be surprised when Smith tucks the ball and runs.
If there's reason to expect regression in Smith's rushing totals, the opposite can be said for his passing. It's well-documented that the Chiefs 9-0 start came against a smorgasbord of dysfunctional offenses led by third-string quarterbacks. This led to some interesting game scripts and some confusing splits. In the second half they faced Peyton Manning (twice), Philip Rivers, and Andrew Luck. Surprisingly Smith actually averaged more completions and attempts during the winning streak, but his yards and touchdowns spiked during the second half.
ATT/G | Y/A | Y/G | TD/G | FP/G | |
W 1-9 | 35 | 6.1 | 213.2 | 1 | 17.8 |
W 11-16 | 32.3 | 7.2 | 232.3 | 2.3 | 23.1 |
To put that in perspective, Smith was the fifth high scoring quarterback on a per game basis after week 11. The reason that matters is that 2014 is much more likely to look like the end of last year than the beginning. The Chiefs defense has lost more parts than it's gained and it's doubtful they'll get the good fortune of facing several backup quarterbacks in consecutive games. That should lead to more competitive, high-scoring games...which should lead to more production through the air.
The defense isn't the only part of this team that may have gotten worse in the offseason. The offensive line took a couple of hits and the team's primary slot receiver (Dexter McCluster) is also gone. Smith didn't have a lot of quality targets in 2013 and the team didn't add anything to get excited about. Dwayne Bowe is still the only receiver on the team that can come even close to scaring anyone and there's plenty of reason to doubt whether anyone can push Donnie Avery out of the other starting spot.
The best chance for help for Smith from Travis Kelce, who spent his rookie year on injured reserve. Kelce is very athletic for his size (6'5" 255 lbs) and has as much potential as any pass-catcher on the roster. If he could develop into the player the Chiefs thought he was when they drafted him, that would really help out the passing game. Of course, even if he doesn't Smith can still count on Jamaal Charles. Charles led the team in targets in 2013 as he had one of the best years of his career. His ability to turn a dump off into a game breaking play is a huge asset for Smith both in the game and in fantasy.
POSITIVES
- Smith's newfound running ability helps raise his floor and his ceiling.
- A more competitive schedule likely means more downfield passing in 2014.
- Smith has been a reliable fantasy QB2 for three straight years now.
NEGATIVES
- The Chiefs had more losses on offense (specifically the line) than additions in the offseason.
- Last year was Smith's fantasy best, and most likely his ceiling.
- The aforementioned competitive schedule includes four games against the NFC West.
PROJECTIONS
CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | |
Heath Cummings | 324 | 540 | 3672 | 19 | 9 | 50 | 225 | 1 |
David Dodds | 320 | 527 | 3389 | 22 | 11 | 61 | 271 | 2 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
There are plenty of reasons to feel positive and negative about Smith, but all of them lead to fairly similar projections. He should be a good bet to finish somewhere in the middle-to-bottom-third of QB2s from a fantasy perspective, but the biggest problem is his lack of upside. In 8 years in the league he's never finished better than his 15th place finish in 2013. If you're looking for a reliable quarterback as your QB2 that shouldn't hurt you if you need him in a pinch, Smith is probably your guy. But if you're looking for the potential to turn in a QB1 season and be a steal late in the draft, you should look elsewhere. Right now he's being drafted as the 22nd QB off the boards and that's just about right depending on what you want out of your backup.
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Shawn Siegele at Pro Football Focus wrote:
Of the 42 quarterbacks who played in at least 25% of their team’s snaps, Smith finished with the lowest average depth of target (aDOT). His passes traveled an average of 6.9 yards in the air. That’s actually good news, in that it helps you get a very solid fantasy starter for free. Smith averaged 0.45 fantasy points per drop back in 2013, the exact same number as Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger and far better than Tom Brady or Matt Ryan.
Read more from Shawn here.
John Paulsen at 4for4.com wrote:
After the bye (and including one playoff game), he averaged 253 yards and 2.6 TD. That's 22.7 PPG -- for reference, Drew Brees averaged 22.6 PPG in 2013. We’re not expecting those gaudy numbers to continue, but even though the Chiefs didn’t do much to upgrade the receiver position, Smith should be a good value on draft day. His ongoing contract negotiation is a potential distraction.
Read more from John here.