A pair of rookies led the way in our picks last week with Zach Mettenberger (QB7) and Isaiah Crowell (RB6) each far outperforming their price tag. Overall it was an average week that could have been better if not for an awful performance from Blake Bortles. The byes are now over, but with three Sunday games it's going to feel like another week of heavy byes. That makes it even more important to find the right value, let's get to work. Once again we're using the projections of David Dodds for our Value Play selection and my personal research for the Bargain Buys. You clearly don't want to fill out a roster full of these guys, but once you've selected the studs you want, fill your roster with a couple of these players for profit.
Quarterback
Value Play
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5000) vs. Tennessee- You'll be hard pressed to find a better value than Fitzpatrick this week. Despite the fact that he was benched he was still a pretty reliable fantasy commodity and now he gets to face a weak Titans team. He didn't post less than 15 FP in any of his last 4 starts, if he can just replicate that he'll be great value and his ceiling is even higher.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Drew Stanton ($6500) vs. Atlanta- Stanton struggled last week at Seattle, but most quarterbacks do. This secondary is much more like the Lions unit he torched in Week 11 than anything he saw in Seattle. The only reason I'm more excited about Fitzpatrick is his price but Stanton has a higher ceiling and floor. The Cardinals are coming off a stinging loss and this is the perfect opponent to take out their frustrations on. I wouldn't be surprised if Stanton meets value by halftime.
Running Back
Value Play
Tre Mason ($6000) vs. Oakland- Mason is one of the best rookie running backs in the league and he gets a plus match up this week against the Raiders. When a running back has been as productive as Mason has and not reached the end zone, you know regression isn't too far around the corner. I expect a solid performance north of 90 total yards with his first score since Week 7.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Fred Jackson ($6400) vs. Cleveland- Jackson gets a banged up Browns defense that wasn't that good against the run when they were healthy. This is close to the end of the line for the aging running back, but his red zone usage and opponent's deficiencies make him a solid play this week regardless. This is the second week in a row we've suggested an aging running back against the Browns and it worked out pretty well last week.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Kenny Stills ($5100) vs. Pittsburgh- FanDuel can't adjust Stills' price quick enough after his explosion in usage last week. With Brandin Cooks out, Stills saw a career high in targets (9) and receptions (8). There's no reason to expect a change in that considering Stills' success (98 yards) and the fact that the Saints are still thin at receiver. Stills is the best value of the day at receiver when there aren't a lot of cheap options.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Malcom Floyd ($5400) vs. Baltimore- Floyd has been Mr. Reliable this year with 9 straight weeks of 3-5 receptions and at least 7 PPR fantasy points. That's not great, but it at least lets you know where his floor is. More importantly, Floyd's broken 11 FP in 5 of those games and the Ravens secondary is primed for attacking. Floyd is still Phillip Rivers' most trusted target, and the most likely receiver to go off against a bad pass defense.
Tight End
Value Play
Travis Kelce ($5300) vs. Denver- It's hard not to keep picking Kelce at this price because we know what his upside is. This is a must-win game for the Chiefs in the division race and they're facing an offense that is pretty much impossible to stop. For those two reasons I feel like this is as good a week as any to bet on the Chiefs giving Kelce the targets he deserves. He's the most talented player on their offense outside of Jamaal Charles and should be treated as such.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Charles Clay ($5300) vs. New York Jets- Clay sat out last week but sounds like he'll be 100% against a Jets team in total disarray. Before missing Week 12 Clay had seen 23 targets in his last 3 games and become the reliable producer we grew accustomed to in 2013. I expect that to continue against a Jets secondary that is flat out terrible. Clay doesn't have the upside that Kelce does but he may have a higher floor.
Kicker
Chandler Catanzaro ($4600) vs. Atlanta- Big favorite, in a dome, against a bad defense. Yes, I do edit this section every week but only so I can change the name of the kicker. Seriously though, picking kickers isn't rocket science and Catanzaro is the best cheap option this week.
Defense
New York Giants ($4900) vs. Jacksonville- I do not think the Giants defense is particularly good but many teams have shown this year that it doesn't take a good defense to produce fantasy points against the Jaguars. The Giants have played one of the toughest schedules in the league, so expect them to take advantage of one of their few good matchups this year.
