There were no great values in last week's FanDuel Bargain Buys other than Larry Donnell finishing as TE4. That being said, 70% of our picks hit value, and that's definitely a success. We're moving towards the end of the year and the prize pools are getting bigger. In Week 12 we're going shopping for some monster values to win some monster prizes. Once again we're using the projections of David Dodds for our Value Play selection and my personal research for the Bargain Buys. You clearly don't want to fill out a roster full of these guys, but once you've selected the studs you want, fill your roster with a couple of these players for profit.
Quarterback
Value Play
Blake Bortles ($6300) vs Indianapolis- Coming off his bye week, Bortles gets a defense that has been exposed over the last month against the pass and the run. The Colts offense is still good enough that Bortles will be chasing the scoreboard for much of the day, which only makes him a better value. Bortles has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last three starts, that's more than enough at this price.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Zach Mettenberger ($6500) vs. Philadelphia- The Eagles have made opposing quarterbacks look like Pro Bowlers for a good part of this year, and Mettenberger seems to be getting more comfortable with each start. He's met value in two of his three starts and should have no trouble repeating in a high-paced game against the Eagles. Like Bortles, he should be chasing the scoreboard...and meeting value.
Running Back
Value Play
Charles Sims ($4900) vs. Chicago- Sims hasn't broken loose yet, but he did see an increase in his touches last week and now looks like the favorite to lead the committee in Tampa. The Bears defense has been subpar against the run and worse against the pass. Their open-field tackling leaves much to be desired, which could spell big things for Sims on catches in the flats. Sims is more of a lottery ticket play, that could hit huge with one broken tackle.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Isaiah Crowell ($5500) vs. Atlanta- Crowell is a special talent as a rookie in Cleveland and the release of Ben Tate indicates they might just know that. There's still some concern that Terrance West eats into his carries, so listen to reports of who is starting on Saturday. The Browns went away from the run last week, but for the most part they've pounded it in close games. With Josh Gordon back that should free up the middle for Crowell to run wild.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Marques Colston ($6000) vs. Baltimore- With Brandin Cooks out the targets have to go somewhere and we're betting on Colston this week. The Ravens secondary is not good at all right now, so look for Drew Brees to take advantage. A heavy focus on Jimmy Graham should leave Colston to pretty much do what he wants in single coverage. One hundred yards and a touchdown is not out of the question.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Justin Hunter ($5300) vs. Philadelphia- if you're fed up with Hunter and refuse to even consider starting him, I understand...please move on. However, you should know that the Eagles have given up an NFL-worst 12 pass plays of 40+ yards this year. Does Hunter have the potential to bomb, even if Mettenberger excels? Absolutely. Is his ceiling high enough against this defense to mitigate the risk? I believe so.
Tight End
Value Play
Charles Clay ($5200) vs. Denver- We've only recommended Clay two times this year, and those are the two games he's scored a touchdown. The Broncos struggle against the tight end position and Clay has put together a three game streak of average to above average play. He is nursing a knee injury, but I expect him to play. He'll have a low ownership and an excellent shot at value in a shootout with Denver.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Eric Ebron ($4900) vs. New England- Ebron returned from injury last week against the Cardinals and saw 4 targets in his first game back. More impressively, he caught all 4 balls. I don't expect the Lions to be able to run the ball against New England, and you know Bill Belichick will do everything he can to stop Calvin Johnson. That should leave the middle of the field open for Ebron, who could be the second young tight end to break out against the Patriots.
Kicker
Shayne Graham ($4700) vs. Baltimore- We try not to get too tricky with our kicker selections. Good pass offense against a bad pass defense in a dome, we'll take it. Graham should get 5-6 kicks in this game, just hope that half of them are field goals.
Defense
St. Louis Rams ($4800) vs. San Diego- In the month of November the Rams have given up 48 total points to the Broncos, Cardinals and 49ers. Considering that 14 of those points came from the Cardinals defense, that is an extremely impressive stretch. The Chargers on the other hand have scored 13 points in 2 November games against the Dolphins and Raiders. These are two units moving in opposite directions, take advantage.
