For a full explanation of this strategy, and part one of the series, click here.
As I discussed last week, Draft To Trade is an approach for the active owner that enjoys trading as much as they do drafting. What we're specifically looking for through this approach are high-upside players that we anticipate getting off to a fast start for one reason or another. This can be players that are being discounted because of their perceived durability, players with easy opening schedules, or players that we just think are being undervalued and will see that value increase as the season goes on. This is a series that will continue throughout the season, but for now we're just focusing on the draft and the first 4-5 weeks of the season. In part one I laid out a specific plan for the first 5-6 rounds of your draft. In part two we'll look at a group of players sorted by ADP. Because every draft is different, I'm giving a range where you could expect these players to be taken.
Rounds 6-8
QB Tom Brady- Brady had a down year in 2013 because the quality of his weapons fell of dramatically. He's expected to have Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vereen healthy to start the season and that's enough to mitigate the mediocrity at wide receiver. Brady starts off the season with the Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders and Chiefs...none of them should provide much of a challenge in the secondary. I'd expect Brady to get off to the type of start that has people thinking of him like a top five fantasy quarterback by week five.
RB Stevan Ridley- There's been a lot of hype about James White early in camp and Shane Vereen is going to be heavily involved. This has led to a lot of people overlooking Stevan Ridley and his 19 touchdowns since 2012. Ridley is still listed atop the Patriots depth chart despite his fumbling problems. While he's probably on a short leash, he's also an incredible value at this point in the draft if he holds on to his role. I'm comfortable with Ridley any time after the middle of the 6th round.
RB Pierre Thomas- Reports that Thomas has fallen behind Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson on the depth chart have lowered Thomas' ADP into the 80s. Thomas may see less carries but his 70+ receptions from last year should be repeatable after Darren Sproles was lost to the Eagles. Thomas is a solid upside pick the late 7th or early 8th round and his work in the passing game should keep his floor relatively high. Thomas faces the Falcons, Vikings, and Cowboys in the first four weeks of the season so he should get off to a fast start.
WR Mike Wallace- It took a while for Wallace to get in sync with Ryan Tannehill, but once they did Wallace was a solid fantasy contributor. From week 12 on Wallace was WR13 in standard scoring leagues, scoring a touchdown in 4 of his final 6 games. The Dolphins get the Bills, Chiefs, and Raiders secondaries in the first four weeks of the season. Those should be three of the worst secondaries in the league, a prime opportunity for Wallace to get off to a fast start. Wallace is being drafted at 7.3 but I'd be fine with him anywhere in the 6th round.
WR Dwayne Bowe- Bowe is another receiver that finished the year strong but his ADP has actually fallen into the 9th round as WR38. Last year was a strange year in Kansas City with the defense carrying the team to a 9-0 start. The team's secondary has lost Brandon Flowers and looks to be much worse than last year, which really lessens the chances of another great defensive performance. When this team needs to move the ball through the air, Bowe is the go-to guy, as he showed in last year's AFC Wild Card Game. His beginning schedule isn't favorable, but his value for the year is almost certain to be better than WR38.
TE Jordan Reed- The only reason Reed is being taken this low is because of concussion concerns. Reed was a stud when he was healthy last year and is one of the few tight ends with difference making potential. If you didn't land a Graham or Gronkowski early, Reed provides top five upside with an eigth round price tag. If he does struggle with concussions it's easy enough to find replacement-level tight end production on the waiver wire in most leagues.
ROUNDS 9-12
QB Andy Dalton- I've written plenty about Dalton in the past, but he's horribly undervalued yet again. Dalton finished as QB12 in 2012 and QB3 in 2013 and he's currently being drafted as QB16. The thing is, Dalton's weapons have likely improved since last year. Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert are having great camps and A.J. Green is still one of the best receivers in the game. While a repeat of last year isn't likely, Dalton is a QB1 that you can land in the 10th or 11th round. He'll be worth more once he's feasted on the Falcons and Titans in week two and three.
RB Fred Jackson- We've discussed the Bills opening schedule in part one when talking about C.J. Spiller, but even without it Jackson is just a steal in the 9th round. Jackson is being drafted as RB35, which is one spot higher than his worst season in the last 5 years (when he played 10 games). He's been a RB2 in 4 of the last 5 seasons and should be at least that good in the early part of 2014.
RB Mark Ingram- With Pierre Thomas falling to 3rd on the depth chart it's Ingram who takes over the number one spot. He's been frustratingly inconsistent over the past three seasons but in 2014 he may finally get his chance to shine. Last year Ingram averaged nearly 5 yards per carry and his easy opening schedule will give him a chance to build on that.
WR Brandin Cooks- No rookie wide receiver landed in a more perfect situation than Cooks. His elite speed plays well in the Saints system, especially on turf. He has one of the best quarterbacks in the game and a target opportunity opened up by the loss of Darren Sproles and Lance Moore. In PPR leagues he has a chance to be a solid WR3 if not better.
WR Kelvin Benjamin- I wasn't a huge fan of Benjamin's coming out, but according to reports he's built a great rapport with Cam Newton. There just aren't that many WRs to eat into his targets in Carolina, so if he has Cam on his side he should get a lot of opportunities. Benjamin is a big body that will play well in the red zone. The best part about Benjamin/Cooks is that if either hits the hype machine will go crazy and they'll bring a nice return in a trade.
TE Tyler Eifert- Eifert's current ADP currently sits at 181, but I expect that to skyrocket with all the positive news coming out of camp, the injury to Marvin Jones, and the question marks surrounding Jermaine Gresham's back. Eifert was a bit of a disappointment last year but he's had a very good camp and the Bengals could really use another red zone target. Using your 12th round pick on him might seem like a reach but it won't after a couple of weeks.
Late Round Flyers
QB Sam Bradford- Bradford has always had a high ceiling but injuries and a lack of weapons have derailed his career thus far. It's unclear whether any of that will change in 2014, but I still see him as a quarterback with a high-QB2 upside. His opening schedule features Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Philadelphia so he should have plenty of opportunities to increase that value.
RB Latavius Murray- This one has nothing to do with the schedule and everything to do with the running backs ahead of him. Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden are two of the less reliable options heading into the year due to age and injury history. The coaching staff has raved about Murray's size and speed, and if the two backs ahead of him struggle they may hive the second year back a shot.
WR Doug Baldwin- With Golden Tate and Sidney Rice out of the equation Doug Baldwin has an excellent opportunity to be the WR2 in Seattle even if Percy Harvin does manage to stay healthy. If he doesn't Baldwin could find himself as Russel Wilson's #1 option. Baldwin's ADP is currently 180 which is very little risk for the ceiling he possesses.
TE Travis Kelce- Kelce missed all of last year due to a microfracture but he's healthy now and took a pass in the seam 69 yards to the house in the team's first preseason game. Like Baldwin, he could very easily find himself as the #2 option in the passing game. Kelce is exactly the type of high upside pick you should be making with your late round selections.
Have trade questions? Send them to me at cummings@footballguys.com