Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Everyone knows the point of a fantasy football draft is to draft the best team possible, but there are plenty of suggestions as to how you should do that. I'm here to offer you one more way that, while maybe unconventional, can lead to the types of results you're looking for. First, I want to offer a few disclaimers:
- This strategy is not for the owners that want to draft their team and forget about it. You cannot put your team on auto-pilot with this strategy. In fact, you'll probably be more involved than you've ever been.
- This strategy is not for the faint at heart. You are definitely raising your chances for ridicule with this strategy, especially on draft day. You will, for the most part, ignore bye weeks and even ADP to a certain extent. We'll get to the reason for that later; just know that you are assuming a greater risk for the chance at a greater reward.
- This strategy is not for the loose-lipped. Even if you do hear it on draft day, the key to this strategy working is that your league mates don't know what is coming. Explaining even a part of your strategy to those in your league will have a seriously negative impact on its effectiveness. Take your lumps on draft day, and then take your trophy in January.
Okay, enough about what this strategy isn't, what is it? Drafting to trade is all about maximizing talent and the schedule. A lot of people in your league probably take into consideration some sort of strength of schedule rating for the upcoming season. What you're going to do differently is to look at the strength of schedule in sections of the season. Thankfully, our own Clayton Gray does an incredible job of providing this information to you weekly in his Ultimate Strength of Schedule feature. Here's a brief overview of how it works, and then I'll get to the players I would target in the draft to make it work.
The specifics of this will depend on your league's trade deadline, but let's assume a trade deadline after Week 10. We're basically going to break the season into three sections:
Weeks 1-4: This will be the focus of today's article. You will focus your draft on players that have the easiest schedules over this period of time.
Weeks 5-9: This is when you unload a few, some, or even a majority of the players you drafted BEFORE they hit the more difficult portion of their schedule. Depending on how many trades you make at this point, you may or may not have a lot of work to do at the deadline. You will focus heavily on players that may have underperformed because of the difficulty of their schedule or other factors.
Weeks 10-17: Just before the deadline you start looking for players poised to finish strong. We'll discuss later in the season what to look for, but it definitely includes an easier schedule and an increase in opportunity amongst other things.
Okay, for now all you're really worried about is the draft right? What we're going to do is target the players with the easiest opening schedules, or those we expect to have fast starts for one reason or another. It's okay to reach a little for these players, but not more than one round in the first half of the draft. A lot of it will depend on where you draft, but I would not suggest you take this so far as to affect your first round pick. Here are your targets and a brief explanation for each:
1st Round
If you're drafting in the first nine picks you need to forget about this strategy and take one of the top four running backs, top four receivers, or Jimmy Graham. The first two rounds are not generally a place to take big risks, unless there are huge payoffs on the other side.
Late 1st/Early 2nd
Arian Foster has an ADP of 2.4 right now, so he's probably more like a 2nd round selection. The only reason Foster's lasting that long is concerns over his health, he was outstanding last year. The Texans are resting Foster regularly during camp to have him fresh for the start of the season, and injury concern isn't quite as scary if you're only looking at him for the first 4-5 weeks. By the way, during the first five weeks Foster faces the Redskins, Raiders, Giants, Bills, and Cowboys.
Mid 2nd
Brandon Marshall- Marshall faces the 49ers in week two but outside of that he's got the Bills, Jets, Packers and Panthers secondaries in the first five weeks of the season. While Alshon Jeffery has cut into Marshall's targets that cut won't be quite as big with Jay Cutler back on the field. Cutler loves throwing the ball to Marshall, especially in the red zone. Marshall has a current ADP of 2.6, but by the time week 5 rolls around he could be the #1 wide receiver in fantasy.
Late 2nd/Early 3rd
Rob Gronkowski- Gronkowski's ADP is 27 and climbing, so this may be more of a mid-late second recommendation if your draft is still a few weeks away. Like Foster, Gronkowski is only lasting this long because of concerns about injuries. The funny thing is that virtually every elite tight end has a pretty long laundry list of injuries. I wouldn't bet on Gronkowski playing 16 games this year, but I would absolutely bet on him being a difference maker when he's on the field. He's scored 42 touchdowns in 50 NFL games; that type of production is easily worth a first round pick if he's healthy and all signs say he is.
Mid 3rd
C.J. Spiller- Yet another guy that's fallen because of durability concerns. Spiller was overrated in 2013 but his value has fallen back to earth. He should be fresh and effective at the beginning of the year. I have concerns with Spiller over a full season, but he fits perfectly for this strategy. In 2012 Spiller totaled 460 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns in his first four games. When he has fresh legs and is used correctly he can carry your team. Once everyone's bought back in on him as a RB1 you can deal him for something more reliable.
Late 3rd/Early 4th
Percy Harvin- No, this isn't just going to turn into a list of injury-prone players. This is actually a bit of a reach on Harvin based on his ADP, but with games against the Packers, Chargers, Broncos and Redskins early it's worth it. I get the feeling Pete Carroll would like to show off his new toy early in the year and Harvin has always been spectacular when he's on the field.
Mid 4th
If any of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees have fallen this far it's time to grab them. There is a wide range of where quarterbacks are drafted, with some leagues seeing all three gone in the first two rounds while others follow the late round quarterback mentality and wait far too long. For this strategy we don't have any interest in grabbing a quarterback in the first three rounds, but if one of the big three fall to the fourth don't hesitate! If not, Chris Johnson fits our strategy well. Johnson has the easiest schedule of all running backs in the first three weeks and the fourth easiest through week five.
Late 4th/Early 5th
Frank Gore- Carlos Hyde is getting a lot of buzz with the injuries to Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James, but early in the year it will be Gore seeing a large percentage of the carries. The 31 year-old back hasn't finished worse than RB13 since 2010 and should be a good bet to see 15-18 touches a game. We may see Hyde start to cut into Gore's carries later in the year, but early on he should be a safe bet as a borderline RB2.
Mid 5th
Jordan Cameron- This has very little to do with our strategy and more with me thinking Cameron is an excellent value here. He should be a PPR monster, especially if Brian Hoyer wins the job to start the year. Hoyer leaned on Cameron heavily last year and doesn't really have a lot of other people to throw the ball to. If Johnny Manziel wins the job out of camp that could complicate things a little bit, but Cameron is still a solid bet to be a top five tight end.
Late 5th/Early 6th
If you don't have a quarterback yet and Matthew Stafford or Andrew Luck are still available, go get them. Both of these young quarterbacks are on the upswing and have better weapons than they did last year. If you're not going quarterback then Torrey Smith is a steal here. Smith is being discounted because of a disappointing 2013 that was disappointing only because of how awful the Ravens offense was. Smith set career highs in receptions and receiving yards but saw his touchdown rate plummet. With a better Ravens offense should come more touchdowns for Smith and a rebound in value.
We'll cover the rest of your draft next week in part two of Draft To Trade, but first I've laid out a draft plan for the first five rounds from 1.4, 1.8, and 1.12 (including one where quarterbacks fell). These can be tweaked depending on your league or position, but they provide a good baseline to set yourself up for trades later in the year.
1.4 | 1.8 | 1.12 | |
ROUND 1 | Matt Forte | Demaryius Thomas | A.J. Green |
ROUND 2 | Rob Gronkowski | Brandon Marshall | Arian Foster |
ROUND 3 | C.J. Spiller | C.J Spiller | Aaron Rodgers |
ROUND 4 | Percy Harvin | Chris Johnson | Percy Harvin |
ROUND 5 | Frank Gore | Jordan Cameron | Torrey Smith |