We're entering the last two weeks of the season, which leads to two distinct trains of thought. The first way to look at it is that the next two weeks will be full of unpredictable madness, lessening the worth of research. On the other hand, if you're good at predicting madness...the more madness the better right? The answer is somewhere in the middle, but we'll lean towards the latter in this week's article. The Value Play at each position is based off of the projections of David Dodds, while the Bargain Buy is my personal recommendation. You don't want a roster full of these guys, but using 1-2 of them could help you win your GPP.
Quarterback
Value Play
Alex Smith ($5600) vs. Pittsburgh- This may seem like I'm just chasing points, but it has nothing to do with that. Smith faces a Pittsburgh defense that is much better against the run than they are the pass. More importantly, the Steelers offense is nearly unstoppable when they're rolling and the Chiefs defense has shown a few chinks in the armor. If Pittsburgh starts to run away with this one Smith will be forced to turn to the air, and he should have had success.
Bargain Buy
Shaun Hill ($5300) vs. New York Giants- Unless you're counting last week's tough game against Arizona against him, Hills had been a great value for several weeks. The Giants defense is nowhere close to the same challenge and there's little reason to think they'll be inspired for a road game in St. Louis. My only real concern for Hill is if the Rams run away with this one and we'll talk more about that later.
Running Back
Value Play
Lamar Miller ($4400) vs. Minnesota- The Dolphins running game has struggled recently, but even so this price is way too low. Miller just needs 13 PPR fantasy points to meet value and that almost seems like his floor. Now, imagine if the Dolphins grab an early lead and Miller gets force fed the ball. In that case you could be looking at 5-6x value without too much of an imagination. That's exactly the type of upside you want in a GPP.
Bargain Buy
Tre Mason ($4600) vs. New York Giants- Speaking of upside, Mason is the play of the week in that regard. As I mentioned above, my only fear of playing Hill is the blowout potential in this game. Enter Mason, who excels in those types of situations. Against a Giants team without any motivation Mason could have another monster game not unlike Week 13 against the Raiders.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Andre Johnson ($4600 vs. Baltimore- Johnson has recovered from his concussion and should be active for Week 16 against the Ravens. His quarterback situation is terrible, but if it's Case Keenum at least Johnson has some rapport with him. I just can't overlook a player of Johnson's talent against a secondary this bad, even if he does have a bad quarterback.
Bargain Buy
Dwayne Bowe ($3200) vs. Pittsburgh- There are some people that are going to look at Albert Wilson's big catch last week and think he's the dirt cheap flyer from Kansas City. Well, not when Bowe is only $200 more. As disappointing as his season has been, Bowe is still the go-to receiver when Kansas City gets in trouble. You want madness? How about the Chiefs receivers not having a touchdown this season? I'll go out on a limb and predict Bowe ends that this week.
Tight End
Value Play
Jared Cook ($3200) vs. New York Giants- Cook is an enigma with the occasional outburst. If you're starting Hill this week, I like him as the cheap stack that allows you to load up on studs at other positions. His floor is about 2x value and that doesn't hurt you too bad with a player this cheap. His ceiling gives you a chance to compete for the top of GPPs.
Bargain Buy
Dwayne Allen ($3800) vs. Dallas- Allen got back involved last week and now gets a superb match up against Dallas. It's difficult to project which Colts tight end is going to reach the end zone week to week, but I wouldn't mind betting on both against the Cowboys. This will be almost certainly be a shootout and you won't find another player at this price range with this many red zone opportunities.
Defense
Denver Broncos ($2900) vs. Cincinnati- This is all about betting against Andy Dalton in primetime. It's difficult to believe that either Aqib Talib or Chris Harris won't pick Dalton off more than once.
