Last week I speculated that the carryover from the FanDuel article would be a good thing for our prospects in Week 12. Well the two plays that carried over were the two best of the day but the rest of our picks didn't live up to expectations. With a long weekend I've had a lot of extra time to look at the Week 13 numbers and I feel confident we'll see improvement. The Value Play at each position is based off of the projections of David Dodds, while the Bargain Buy is my personal recommendation. You don't want a roster full of these guys, but using 1-2 of them could help you win your GPP.
Quarterback
Value Play
Drew Stanton ($5000) vs. Atlanta- Stanton is the first of our dual plays this week. If you've followed this closely this year you know there are generally only 1-2 dual plays a week and they almost always hit value. This week there are three, with Stanton leading the way. This just feels like a game where Arizona really lays the wood in the first half, so my only concern is that Stanton doesn't throw the ball in the second half.
Bargain Buy
Derek Carr ($5000) vs. St. Louis- Carr has been hot and cold but I expect him to have a little more confidence after picking up his first victory last week. The Rams defense has been much better as of late, but that's largely on the back of their pass rush. Carr rarely gets sacked and if his line gives him time in the pocket this secondary is exploitable.
Running Back
Value Play
Tre Mason ($4600) vs. Oakland- Mason is the second crossover from the FanDuel article and easily the best value of the week at running back. He's got a plus matchup, what should be a solid game script, and a large percentage of the workload. Mason has top five potential this week at a price that barely suggests a RB2.
Bargain Buy
Bishop Sankey ($4200) vs. Houston- Sankey posted 10 PPR fantasy points on 13 touches the last time these 2 teams met and he's bested that total twice in the last three weeks. Sankey is still getting pulled at the goal line, which limits his ceiling, but no one should be surprised if he breaks a touchdown of 10+ yards. I like Sankey to meet value, if not as convincingly as Mason.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Michael Floyd ($3600) vs. Atlanta- Floyd looked like he may be reemerging two weeks ago, but fell flat again last week. Last week doesn't bother me too much because it was against the best secondary in the NFL. This week? Well, the Falcons are much closer to the worst than the best. We expect Drew Stanton to have a big week and Floyd is the most likely beneficiary.
Bargain Buy
Justin Hunter ($4000) vs. Houston- Hunter broke out with 16 FPs last week against the Eagles. It was the second time in four weeks that the young talented receiver saw ten targets, and he scored a touchdown each time. This Texans secondary is exploitable, as long as they can protect Zach Mettenberger. I like Hunter more than Sankey, and think it's an either or situation.
Tight End
Value Play
Mychal Rivera ($3400) vs. St. Louis- Rivera took a little step backwards last week, but if you look at his statistics since Tony Sparano took over you still see a vastly underpriced option. Rivera is just a couple of weeks removed from 3 straight games with 15+ FPs. He's a weapon in garbage time especially, which the Raiders generally see plenty of.
Bargain Buy
Charles Clay ($3400) vs. New York Jets- The way teams are moving the ball against the Jets right now, you probably want to get at least a piece of this game. Clay is a nice piece to have as a red zone option that has seen an increase in targets lately. The Jets are strong against the run, but they have trouble stopping anyone in the passing game which probably leads to a lot of drop backs from Ryan Tannehill, at least early in the game.
Defense
Jacksonville vs. New York Giants- A lot of people are going to play the Giants defense simply because they're facing the Jaguars. A nice contrarian play might be the Jaguars defense that hung with the Colts for a half last week. Eli Manning doesn't discriminate when it comes to interceptions so there should be several big play opportunities.
